It's all about JT this year...right? Maybe not.
There are several "regression" based reasons to not expect Jonathan Taylor to have the same season as he had in 2021. Likely he has a very good, even elite season, so this is not to say drafting Jonathan Taylor is a mistake in any way.
Rather, we look at the things that changed in his offense compared to last year. With no more Carson Wentz in Indy, the Colts obviously plan to use Matt Ryan's arm more than they were able to gameplay with Wentz. Coaches aren't oblivious to wear and tear as well, knowing they can get more useful production out of Taylor if they can take the load off him a little with scheme and 2-back sets (training camp has revealed a red-zone 2 back formation being used). All of this points to Taylor having a really good season, but perhaps not the overall RB1 in fantasy type season.
Najee Harris, on the other hand, checks all the boxes. He led the NFL in snap count (by almost 180 snaps taken) and percentage-wise he shouldered a whopping 84% of his team's offensive snaps. That's 15% more than Jonathan Taylor, who also had a crazy high snap count. The big difference is those off-season changes we mentioned earlier.
Harris plays for a team that couldn't rely on the arm of aging Ben Roethlisberger in 2021, and replaced him with a combo of Mitchell Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett. Neither of those options scream air raid, which means the Steelers are slated to give Harris a similar workload as last year...and perhaps even more. Without a solid second option in the backfield he will be the primary back on one of the heaviest rushing teams in the league.
Pittsburgh has to throw the ball sometimes, right? Of course, and who do young quarterbacks favor...? Running backs. Harris was tied with Austin Ekeler for RB targets at 94, by far the most targets of any starting running backs. Backs who can stack receptions are essentially a cheat code for the position, and Harris provides your fantasy roster with the highest volume rushing back along with one of the most targeted backs in the passing game.
And you don't want to take this guy first overall??
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