The Double-Down QB Strategy
The “Double-Down QB“ strategy is basically what happens when you forget to draft a QB, and all the good ones are gone, so you grab the best available guy left, except in this strategy, you actually do it on purpose. If ADP remains close to what it is now, as I expect it to for the low-end starting QBs, you have the options in the 6th/7th round to draft veteran guys like Ryan Tannehill (pictured above) and Matthew Stafford, or go the other route and gamble a little on Joe Burrow or even Jalen Hurts. Then there is a gap in drafting QBs til the 8th-10th rounds, where you find vets like Kirk Cousins and Matt Ryan, and young guys like Trevor Lawrence (pictured below) and Justin Fields. This creates a unique opportunity for you as a fantasy manager, a tweak of the age-old streaming QB strategy, where instead of streaming your QB off the waiver wire based on weekly matchups, you literally do it from your bench, and with your drafted QBs. If you plan on waiting and taking a set of quarterbacks late in the draft as a strategy, it becomes a strength rather than a mad scramble after someone takes Tom Brady in the 5th. Let’s go over some examples.
My favorite targets with the Double Down QB Strategy really depends on how the draft falls when you get down to the 6th. Sometimes there are guys like Rodgers and Hurts on the board, sometimes not. If they are not, it’s time to continue roster building and wait on the QB. The idea is to “double-down“ on your QB by taking a high floor guy (Stafford, Tannehill) and then backing it up with a high ceiling guy (Lawrence, Fields, Lance if you like him) with the immediate pick after. The strategy works in reverse as well, you can take the upside guy like Burrow first since his ADP is higher and back him up with a solid floor guy like Cousins, Mayfield, Ryan, or Roethlisberger. That way you have already filled your 2 RB slots, your 2 WR slots, TE and flex, and generally have a high upside third/fourth RB/WR rostered at this point. You can afford to go back-to-back QB even if you are slightly over drafting the second guy based on ADP because what you CAN’T afford is to miss on your second target QB, as he is what makes the whole strategy work. This isn’t just picking bad QBs at random because Pat Mahomes is gone, it’s a calculated process that involves knowing the risks associated with each QB and making sure your double down doesn’t involve two QBs with similar risks. If you are taking Joe Burrow, but worried about his knee affecting his numbers, don’t draft Trevor Lawrence as your #2 because the rookie QB has much of the same question marks as Burrow. Similarly, if you take a guy like Stafford, you don’t back him up with another floor guy like Ben Roesthlisberger. Unlike other positions, runs on QBs happen quick, and most teams generally draft two so you need to take your target guys back to back to ensure you don’t end up stranded with two question mark QBs.
This theory works best with uncertain QBs like Burrow, Lawrence, Hurts, Lance, and Fields, and using that uncertainty to pair them with a guy like Stafford, Big Ben, Tannehill, someone who we know the floor and can start week 1 or potentially all year and give you a passing grade at QB. The best situation would be Burrow and Stafford or Tannehill and Lawrence if the draft falls that way, but even pairing your high risk guy with Big Ben or Cam Newton, who currently aren’t even being drafted at all, gives you the flexibility to not only bench your high risk guy in bad matchups, or if he gets hurt, but also gives you a floor to weigh your options with and if your high ceiling guy doesn’t pan out, you have a security blanket. The plan isn’t to have the floor guy as the backup, but more as a substitute for waiver streaming. It‘s also a perfect plan if you really love Lance or Fields, but aren’t sure if they will start til week 3 or even week 8. You love Burrow but aren’t sure if it will take him a few weeks to be secure on that knee and get familiar with his old LSU teammate Chase. Or, if you are from New York and are really sold on Zach Wilson, it would be a good idea to pair him with a very solid floor guy like Tannehill or Stafford. That way you don’t overspend on your floor guy but you still draft your “plan” and have options if one doesn’t pan out.
To reiterate, this differs from the normal late-round QB strategy because you pick your targets and have several pairs in mind in case one is taken before you predicted, and you always go back-to-back with them to ensure you get your targets. If you draft the other positions halfway decent, you have a solid framework and don’t need to spend those value picks on a QB, so by the 6th-10th rounds, you are kind of throwing darts at flex guys and high-upside low-floor prospects, and overspending on your second QB isn’t really a huge risk at that ADP considering the importance to your roster. The key is targeting your high ceiling guy, it revolves around him, and then deciding which floor guy you should pair. Sometimes the floor guy is the one you have to draft first, sometimes it’s the second, but as long as you get both you will be set at the position in any situation.
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