It happens every year.
After free agency and the draft, out come the fantasy rankings filled with projections based on...projections. It's inherently inaccurate and even more so this season, where an unprecedented number of fantasy-relevant players changed teams via trades than ever before.
Last year in May, the first fantasy rankings had Jonathan Taylor at RB8-RB12 depending on the list. Cooper Kupp? WR14-WR24. Their actual ADP (average draft position) varied, with Taylor generally going at the end of the first round when top-flight receivers are being chosen, and Kupp was solidly a WR2 available in the fifth round and beyond. Deebo? Universally ranked behind Allen Robinson II despite similar injury concerns.
While Taylor did exceed expectations, his fantasy dominance at the top of the RB list was also due to the widespread injury to the backs drafted ahead of him. Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook, and Christian McCaffrey all missed significant time, which is the largest reason for the gap between Taylor's season totals (353.1 HPR) and the runner up Austin Ekeler (308.8) and Joe Mixon (266.9).
Last season, the SportsLeaf made some bold predictions concerning the Los Angeles Rams: they would win the Super Bowl, Matt Stafford would lead the league in passing yards, and Robert Woods would be a top-ten fantasy wideout.
The Rams did win the Super Bowl, Stafford didn't lead the league in passing, and the fantasy breakout was Kupp rather than Woods (Woods suffered a season-ending injury in November, but Kupp was already dominating the target share). So in essence, our predictions were on the right track, just missed on the individual recipient of the success.
How can we use that analysis to our advantage heading into the 2022 season?
The first indicator that we may be dealing with a dark horse is, simply put, change. When players change teams, it alters their outlook but also the players around them in their new situation, in addition to the players on the team they left behind. Tyreek Hill leaving Pat Mahomes likely lowered his fantasy potential, but it didn't do any favors for Mahomes' outlook either.
When scanning the fantasy landscape, a few dark horses emerge as being in favorable positions to "Rich Strike" their way into the top ten of leaderboards.
-Wide Receivers-
Robert Woods, Tennessee Titans
Hey, we were just talking about him. After a rough start in 2021, Woods finally strung together six weeks of double digit scoring (in HPPR) and got into the end zone five total times in 9 weeks before suffering a season-ending ACL tear. His 12.7 points per game was good enough for top-20 when extrapolated to seventeen games, but his full-season fantasy points would have been good enough for a top ten receiver with his rushing stats added.
Woods was traded to Tennessee prior to the Titans shipping AJ Brown off to Philly and drafting Treylon Burks. Tennessee is praying for the health of Derrick Henry in 2022, but the devastating rush attack opens up the pass game and Woods should absorb the brunt of that as the new Titans WR1.
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
The breakout sophomore year for Higgins was derailed with injury issues, but he still managed a 13 pgg average over the 14 outings he suited up for. Ja'Marr Chase was a target hog in his debut season, but Higgins will continue to see the benefits of playing opposite a coverage magnet.
Higgins has supreme talent and if healthy for a full season, he will be a top ten fantasy wideout. He finished as WR22 last year and that's with missing three full games and playing though injury in most of the others.
Ceedee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
I projected Lamb very highly last season and while he lived up to most expectations, a down year from Prescott and the Cowboys scoring offense in general dropped his weekly value. Dallas traded Amari Cooper in March, which frees up some targets but also takes away the other coverage draw that allowed Lamb to split seams and get open.
Lamb finished as the WR18 in HPPR formats in 16 games, which probably hurts his 2022 projections but if Dallas can get their run game clicking again, it opens up the field for the type of run-and-gun offense Prescott and Lamb thrive in.
Skyy Moore, Kansas City Chiefs
No, Skyy Moore is not Tyreek Hill. He's not even Ja'Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson, who broke into fantasy top-ten scoring their rookie seasons. He is supremely talented like those guys, and also like those two, he was drafted into an offense that has no choice but to use him. If healthy, JuJu Smith-Schuster will provide some reliability on the outside and Marquez Valdez-Scantling can be the burner down the middle, but Moore is the only receiver on the team who profiles to have the route skill and 50/50 ability to absorb some of the 159 targets Tyreek Hill commanded in 2021.
If Pittsburgh drafted Moore instead of George Pickens, Moore wouldn't be on this list. The Chiefs want to run the ball more but that's also what they tried last year, so if that doesn't work they will have to lean on the magic arm of Pat Mahomes once again. Moore doesn't have the 0-60mph speed of Hill that can turn a screen pass into an 80-yard touchdown so we aren't expecting 1200 yards out of him, but watch some college highlights out of Western Michigan and you will see the type of hands that will bring down double-digit red-zone touchdowns this year with Mahomes on the other end of the ball.
Allen Robinson II, Los Angeles Rams
What happened to A-Rob? After a stellar debut in Jacksonville he made big money in Chicago but that's where it fell apart. One could argue, Chicago fell apart around him, but either way. Between lingering hamstring injuries and Mitchell Trubiskey, Robinson woefully underperformed for several years. Enter Justin Fields in 2021 and the rookie QB established a report with young receiver Darnell Mooney over the veteran while once again Robinson was limited due to hamstring issues.
That's all in the past, as Robinson signed on with the super bowl champion Los Angeles Rams last month. In LA he will line up opposite Cooper Kupp, effectively filling the role vacated by Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. Robinson obviously needs to stay healthy for this to work, but Matt Stafford showed a knack for throwing to the open receiver last season and if Woods or OBJ had full-season stats they would be right up there with Kupp. Add on teams attempting to scheme Kupp out of the game, and Robinson should see plenty of light coverage between the 20s.
-Running Backs-
Elijiah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers
I really thought it would be 3rd-round rookie Trey Sermon who dominated the 49ers backfield in 2021, but rather it was the 6th round rookie Mitchell who held down the starting role. The San Francisco RB room was a revolving door with injuries all year, and Mitchell himself missed five games. That didn't stop him from achieving a 13 PPG average and 20+ carries in each of his last five outings. Mitchell racked up 963 yards in just 12 games, breaking the 49ers rookie rushing record, with an impressive 4.7 YPC.
Deebo Samuel is making a splash currently for not wanting to be used like a running back in SF, and the main way the coaches can do that is to utilize their shiny young running backs. If Mitchell can stay healthy through camp he has the RB1 role locked down between the sticks, and should his red zone usage ramp up along with it.
D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
D'Andre Swift is basically Aaron Jones Part II, who in turn is basically diet Alvin Kamara. Not bad guys to be compared to. Swift has been a dark horse for fantasy breakout lists since he was drafted in 2020, but injury ultimately has kept him from realizing those goals. By the numbers though, (when healthy) he lived up to expectations as the primary back in a rotation with Jamaal Williams. Before suffering a foot injury in week 12 that pretty much ended his fantasy season, Swift was averaging 15.8 PPG with four 20+ point outings.
2022 saw Detroit pass on drafting a quarterback and opting to fill some other roster holes. A more efficient passing game, along with a full healthy season, should see Swift as a top-ten fantasy scoring back.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
You could almost hear the collective sigh let out by the fantasy world when the Broncos re-signed Melvin Gordon in free agency. The two had the exact same number of carries and (fantasy points) a season a go, and many felt this was the year for Williams to dominate the workload once out from Gordon's shadow. In reality, running backs like Javonte Williams need to work in some form of a tandem in order to experience prolonged success, and if it wasn't Gordon there was always going to be some form of load-sharing there. Last season Williams finished as the RB17 averaging 10.8 PPG, boosted by some work in the passing game down the stretch.
In 2022, Williams will adopt the 1A role in the backfield, meaning he should see the field in favorable fantasy situations more. Williams only scored four times on the ground last year, compared to Gordon's 8, with the same number of carries inside the 10 yard line. Count on Williams to be in more scoring situations with Russell Wilson, and take advantage of them at a higher rate in his sophomore season.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
There is a running back crisis in Buffalo. Last season Zack Moss wasn't the answer and Devin Singletary disappointed once more, managing a top-25 finish behind 17 healthy starts and five scores in the final four weeks. This indicates there is room for production back there, it just hasn't transpired in the Josh Allen era. Enter National Champion James Cook out of Georgia, and you have a versatile three-down back of the highest pedigree. Cook is the most Pro-ready of the class and the Bills offense is designed for lots of red zone opportunities on the ground and through the air.
Cook is a rookie, and won't be alone in the backfield. Zack Moss and Singletary will spell him, and that's a good thing, because he isn't Najee Harris. Cook is no stranger to sharing a backfield, as he was the complimentary back to D'Andre Swift for several years at Georgia before sharing carries with new Raiders back Zamir White last season. He still managed almost 7 yards per carry and over 10 yards per reception in 2021 and that sort of efficiency will translate behind the Bills offensive line.
Buffalo wants to mitigate the abuse Allen takes, and that means leaning on Cook in the red zone. Top ten is a stretch but not if you take the Buffalo rush projections and concentrate them mostly on one player and give him some air yardage as well...keep your eye on this rookie.
Oh, and he's Dalvin Cook's little brother.
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks
Will Penny even win the starting job after the Seahawks drafted Kenneth Walker III in the second round? I'm predicting yes, and while Walker will have an impact this season the Seahawks are aware their success in 2022 depends on their versatility in the run game. Former starter Chris Carson is under contract through the end of 2022, but after breaking his leg in 2021 his future (at least as the starter) is uncertain according to head coach Pete Carroll. With that in mind, both Penny and Walker will need to produce at high levels, with Penny profiling to get more goal-line carries due to being a bit larger.
The biggest knock on Penny is his frailty. Despite having all the measurable skills in the world, he has dealt with significant injury setbacks in each of his NFL seasons since being drafted in the first round in 2018. Since we have never seen him play a full healthy season, we really don't know his true potential.
Honestly, the last six weeks of the Seahawks 2021 season could be a great indicator of running back usage in the Drew Lock/Geno Smith era. When getting 15 carries or more, Penny posted at least 19 fantasy points per outing and the Seahawks went 4-2 in that stretch. He achieved those numbers by getting into the end zone often during that time, so overall offensive efficiency may hurt Penny without Russell Wilson. If the Seahawks employ a system like Denver did last year with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, we could see both Penny and Walker be productive with Penny seeing the edge in carries and scoring opportunities.
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