For many teams that drafted RBs heavy this year, Allen Robinson was the plan at WR1 due to his third round availability. Through five weeks of football, it hasn't been good for the veteran. Can he fit in the new Fields offense or is it time to free up his roster spot?
Whenever there is uncertainty at the quarterback position, it generally isn't good for position players. Bringing in Andy Dalton was the perfect fantasy situation for Robinson, as he fits the profile of other successful receivers Dalton has favored in the past.
Add rookie Justin Fields to the mix and it became harder to quantify the value the veteran would have. Personally I was very nervous about it, because sometimes veterans can be the safety blanket for young quarterbacks, but if the QB hasn't developed enough to go through his reads quickly, it becomes easy for a defense to remove the largest receiving threat from the equation.
So far, this is exactly what has happened.
Through 5 weeks of play, Robinson has 17 catches on 29 targets for 181 yards and a single touchdown, good enough for WR63 in half PPR formats. Most of this has to do with the switch to Justin Fields after the Andy Dalton injury week 2. Before Dalton got hurt, he had just thrown that afore-mentioned touchdown to Robinson, and targeted the receiver 15 times in 6 quarters of football. Since then, Robinson has seen just 14 targets in 14 quarters of football.
The issue is, Fields just isn't throwing the ball very much. When he does however, Robinson is seeing a healthy share of the targets, totaling 30%, 17%, and 25% respectively over the last three weeks. That's the lone bright spot for Robinson owners, and the hope is that, as Fields becomes more proficient under center, that large target share will begin to translate into volume and fantasy points.
Chicago is not going to be a pass-heavy team with a rookie quarterback, so volume regardless of target share will always be a concern. Fields also will steal a lot of the red zone scores on his feet that otherwise may have gone to a pass catcher.
Chicago is committed to their rookie for the time being, but there is always the possibility of performance issues or injury leading to Dalton recovering the starting role and that changes Robinson's outlook positively under those circumstances.
Robinson is firmly on the Pruning List, but we aren't cutting him just yet. The veteran has too much talent, and while you need to get him out of your starting lineup immediately, we need to see what happens once the Chicago offense finds its footing under Fields.
One other reason to hold onto Robinson is the fact that his name is being tossed around in trade rumors. If he were to get traded to the Indianapolis Colts (my best landing spot for him), suddenly you have a bona fide WR1 again. The problem isn't Robinson, it's his situation, and if that were to change his value skyrockets.
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