By week 4, your decision-making process on who to start at RB1 and RB2, WR1 and WR2 etc, are fairly ironed out due to production tendencies, and (sadly) injuries. But the all-important flex spot(s) are a tough one to nail down, as you generally have three or four viable options to start, yet by now you likely have been burned by someone who failed to produce at the level of someone you left on the bench.
Often this is unavoidable, as things happen that are unpredictable: games going into overtime adding to a player's opportunities, plays getting negated by defensive penalties that net the team yards but not your player...things happen. It makes you want to rip your hair out. That being said, there are patterns we can use to identify the value certain players have over others on a weekly basis, and that gives us the best chance to win (even if it doesn't always work out).
Let's break down a few different situations taken directly from actual fantasy leagues across many formats. Even if you do not have all of these exact players, you are most likely debating flexing one of them, and the analysis still applies. Here is our first scenario.
No CMC (or Chuba) -Pick 2-
Options:
RB J Williams DEN vs Baltimore
RB N Hines IND @ MIA
RB J McKissic WFT @ ATL
WR Z Pascal IND @ MIA
WR R Moore ARI @ LARams
This unfortunate person lost CMC to the hamstring injury and does not have the Chuba Hubbard handcuff. In a half-PPR, 2-Flex league, these five guys are the options to fill the two flex slots after the roster adjustments to compensate for the absence of McCaffrey. None of these guys jump out as "must-starts", so we will have to break down their matchups and how they have been used so far to predict who has the greatest potential.
Javonte Williams scored his first NFL touchdown last week against an exhausted Jets defense. Through three weeks, he has seen a minimum of 12 carries per game but a lot of that can be attributed to Denver protecting a lead deep into games and Williams profiting from that extra opportunity. This week, Williams faces the staunch Baltimore defense while running behind an offensive line potentially down two starters. Baltimore will be the Bronco's first true test to see if their undefeated record is a mirage or not, and unless Denver has a commanding lead we can expect veteran Melvin Gordon to helm the impactful fantasy carries. Williams did see goal line attempts in all three games before finally pounding one into the end zone, which is a great sign for fantasy owners, but he is largely unused in the passing game and that also effects his half PPR value. Until we see how his usage is affected when the Broncos aren't riding an early lead to victory, Williams is a risky flex play against the Ravens.
Nyheim Hines is an interesting fantasy specimen this year and I think his value can be loosely predicted by the situation we think Indianapolis will be in any given week. The Colts have not been great offensively this year, especially running the ball. Week 2 against the Rams defense was just miserable for the entire Colts backfield, but the Rams are a special defense and removed Hines and Taylor effectively from the script. Week 1 and week 3 however, Hines saw the usage that makes him one of the most versatile RB2s in the league, racking up 15 and 11 total touches respectively between the ground and air. Hines makes his touches count, and rushed in a touchdown against Tennessee. Indy plays Miami this week, and while the Dolphins gave the Raiders a run for their money in overtime last week, both of these teams have a lot to work on. This profiles to be a close matchup with Indy trying to run the ball efficiently, and as long as they aren't forced to rely on Wentz's arm to get them back in the game, Hines stands to see his normal 10-15 touches/targets while being on the field for about 46% of the offensive snaps. A touchdown always is the icing on the cake, but Hines can be relied on for the solid double-digit floor he provided in previous weeks, even without reaching the end zone.
JD McKissic, like Hines, is one of the premier RB2s in a dual backfield because he plays a different role than his starter Antonio Gibson. In 2020, McKissic saw over 100 receiving targets from the RB position, second only to Alvin Kamara. In 2021 he has been on the field for a healthy 40% of the snaps, but his usage seems to be dictated by the type of defense the Washington offense is facing. Their opponent week 4 is Atlanta, who has had an up-and-down performance from their defense thus far. The Falcons got absolutely destroyed by both Philadelphia dnd Tampa Bay, but against the Giants last week they held their own and won the game. Washington also won a close game against the Giants recently, and in that game McKissic shined as the game stayed close and young QB Taylor Heinicke had to rely on the versatile back to move the chains through the air. Atlanta's defense has not been great against the run, which means Antonio Gibson should have a day on the ground. Regardless of whether the game is close, or a blowout by Washington, McKissic profiles to have a heavier role in this matchup than against the tough defenses of the Chargers and the Bills he faced of late.
Zach Pascal has popped up onto flex radars over the first three weeks of fantasy due to his high volume of targets and three touchdowns over two games. His red zone targets saw a dip in week 3, but his overall targets actually increased yet again, though he only secured two catches. This week against the Dolphins, the Colts plan to abuse the ground game behind Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines, and Marlon Mack, taking advantage of what has so far been a porous rush defense in Miami. That likely means less targets for Pascal, who already sees less targets and snap share than fellow wideout Michael Pittman. Miami does have superstar cornerback Xavien Howard, who likely will be glued to Pittman, which could create red zone opportunities for Pascal like he saw in weeks 1 and 2. Since this game is by no means a lock one way or the other, I could be wrong and it could turn into a total air raid, but since I feel Indy will try to limit what Wentz has to do with his arm, Pascal likely will have to a score a touchdown or two in order to be flex relevant.
Rookie Rondale Moore was a hot waiver pickup after his breakout game against Minnesota week 2. One reason I like his season-long value is the high number of targets (especially in the red zone) he was seeing from QB Kyler Murray in an offense saturated with weapons. In week 3 against Jacksonville, we saw Moore suffer from being on the negative side of the target share, even with star wideout DeAndre Hopkins limited due to a rib injury. A lot of this was the ground success the Cardinals were having against a truly confused Jacksonville defense. Ultimately even Kyler Murray had a slow day, showing once again that competitive matchups generally benefit QBs and receivers more than blowouts. This last game was an anomaly however, and although the Cardinals are explosive, they play in a tough division that will truly test their mettle and that starts Sunday against the LA Rams. The Rams have not been friendly to their opponents' running backs, and with the exception of the Tampa game they haven't allowed more than 18 points yet. Moore could be on the receiving end of some crucial targets from Murray in a game that looks to be close, and the Cardinals will be forced to air it out in the face of their questionable rush attack being shut down by the Rams front seven. That being said, the Rams typically don't allow a lot of points so relying on Moore to score a touchdown is a risky prospect, especially with the larger-bodied Hopkins trending to be a full go. He does have 8-target, 5-reception upside, but the yardage totals and touchdown probabilities give Moore a fairly low breakout potential for week 4.
Analysis:
All of these guys have their pros and cons, but if we look at the matchups and projected usage, here is how we break down these guys:
Hines > McKissic > Pascal > Williams > Moore
Hines has the best chance to have a breakout game against a team that Indy has a good chance to dominate on the ground, and even in a run-heavy scheme Hines will see his carries and receptions out of the backfield. Should the game be closer than expected, Hines has supreme touchdown upside through the air as one of Wentz's favorite short yardage targets. McKissic is in much the same boat, with his usage being dictated by a game script that has worked against Atlanta in previous weeks. Pascal, Williams, and Moore all profile to have similar usage as previous weeks, but their opponents and game scripts look to make them extremely touchdown dependent in order to break double digits even in half-PPR formats.
Good luck in Week 4!
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