It's Draft day! Every expert has their mock drafts locked in and thinks they have it all figured out, but there are a few burning questions that can turn the whole draft on its head.
Let's take a look at the five biggest questions that we have for the first round.
Jacksonville at #1
The Jags were long expected to take Aidan Hutchinson with the first overall pick but the assumption has switched to Georgia DE Travon Walker. Jacksonville has a lot of needs, and pairing another explosive young edge rusher with Josh Allen will help limit the amount of work Trevor Lawrence has to do in order to win. The Jags could also use O-Line help and no one would scoff if they selected some help in the secondary, but first overall is a little rich for those positions.
Walker is a bit of a surprise at first overall, he played on the stout Georgia defense that won a national championship but with so many stars lining up alongside him, he didn't have the individual accolades that his counterparts at the top of the draft do. With 9 total sacks in his college career, the Jags are banking on his late breakout as the beginning of his rise, and not the ceiling.
Meanwhile Aidan Hutchinson is probably the most sure-fire pick in the draft, perhaps he doesn't have the ceiling potential of Walker but he will walk in as a day-one Pro-Bowler for whoever drafts him. Passing on that security to take a reasonably unknown commodity (we're basing all this essentially on the National Championship game, Senior Bowl, and Combine, all which happened in the last four months) is a very Jacksonville thing to do.
Houston at #3
Here is where the whole first round will be decided. Houston could literally go a dozen different ways here, but we have it narrowed down to three likely scenarios, and all three will change the course of the picks following them significantly.
Houston should take a tackle here. They have a supreme need at the position, and they have their pick of the litter at #3 to secure their cornerstone of the future. Ikem Ekwonu is the favorite pick here but they could take Evan Neal as well and no one would be shocked.
Recent days have seen Vegas and many top analysts shift from tackle, to defensive back for the Texans at #3. Vegas thinks it will be Derek Stingley, but most believe they would take Ahmad Gardner over Stingley if they choose to go DB that high.
They could also snag the third-rated defensive end off the board in Kayvon Thibodeaux, who some have mocked as high as #1 to the Jags.
Would anyone be floored if they selected a QB at #3? Not really.
Regardless of who they take, it will mean two elite players fall past #3 and the Jets, Giants, Panthers, Falcons, and Seahawks are waiting with bated breath to see what they do.
Carolina at #6
The Panthers have been fading away from taking a QB at #6, but they don't have a draft puck til the fourth round after this one, so if they pass here they are basically stuck with Sam Darnold for 2022. And that is basically a death sentence for the coaching staff, unless they can keep CMC healthy.
I have the Panthers taking an offensive tackle (Neal or Cross) here. But I may have bought into the misdirection by Carolina too much, and reasonable minds find it hard to believe they don't take Kenny Pickett here.
Why Pickett over Willis if they have their choice? Pickett is ready to come in now and compete with Darnold for the starting job right out of the gate,. Willis will need some development, think Trey Lance, and Carolina doesn't have the luxury of time. Pickett is the most Pro-ready of the QBs in this class.
New Orleans Trades Up?
The Saints made a splash by jockeying their mid-round picks and acquiring an extra first from Philadelphia. Now they have the 16th and 19th picks in the first round, and many speculate they made the move in order to get into the top ten and get their QB of the future.
This does make sense, and combining the 16th and 19th picks could get you as high as 4th overall. Do they need to get that high though? It seems their top QB prospects are Willis and Desmond Ridder. We don't know at this point exactly when those guys are going to be off the board, New Orleans may not have to move at all and still land one of them.
There is also the sentiment that New Orleans made the trade for the extra pick because they lost a bit of talent in the offseason and with so many holes, they need two prime players rather than just one. This could be a move for taking a QB/WR duo at 16/19...or they could draft a offensive tackle and a defensive tackle.
Our prediction is that New Orleans stays pat and takes a QB/WR combo (Malik Willis/Chris Olave). But if DT Jordan Davis is available, or OT Trevor Penning, we wouldn't be shocked if they end up on the Saints roster.
Who Trades Back Into The First?
It happens almost every year, a team sneaks back into the first round to grab a QB (usually) so they have luxury of the fifth year option.
I am predicting that the truly QB needy teams will all draft a QB, just depends when. Carolina, New Orleans, and Pittsburgh are my first-round QB predictions, but I think we could see two teams trade back into the first for a QB.
The first is Seattle, sitting on the 40th and 41st picks in the second round, it is a no-brainer to package those picks (or one of them and a later round pick) and get back in the first. Seattle is rumored to love Matt Corral, and trading back up with Detroit or Buffalo is our prime prediction. Detroit wouldn't p[ass up on more picks, unless they want to take Corral at 32 themselves. Buffalo is probably drafting a DB or a RB at 25, both positions they can likely fill (possibly with the same player) if they trade back to 40.
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