The Ugly Truths (There Are A Few)
Here’s the part where we dive into the ugly truths. The truth is, fantasy managers hear real football analysts talk about how impossible the tight end position is to cover, and they see how week in, week out the WR3 in Jacksonville or some random waiver-wire receiver for New Orleans is putting up huge numbers. So, they assume, that the tight end position should be putting up monster numbers, as it’s a receiving position in a receiving league. That’s not accurate, or fair really. If you look at the numbers over the last three or four years, if your name isn’t Kelce, Kittle, or Waller (barely), you aren’t showing up on stat sheets for overall points scored in fantasy. Last season, Kelce averaged 20.7 PPG in PPR formats. Waller averaged 17, and for his 8 games, Kittle averaged 15. Those are pretty damn solid averages for any position. After that however, the points per game average drops to 12 for Mark Andrews and in the 10PPG-11PPG range you have pretty much…everyone else. At least, anyone who fantasy owners would be starting on a week-to-week basis: TJ Hockenson, Robert Tonyan, Logan Thomas, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Hunter Henry, Noah Fant. Right below that 10pt average you have Gronk, Jonnu, Hayden Hurst…and it kind of just gets worse from there. On top of that, most of these guys seem to have one game a year where they scored multiple touchdowns, which is great for that week, generally a guaranteed win if the rest of your team even performs average, but it hides another ugly truth therin: if you have a 30pt week, and a 10PPG average on the season, that’s a lot of really bad weeks surrounding that 30 pointer in order to drag that average so bad. And that’s literally every one of these guys. They are so similar, the only thing separating them is what we can project will change for 2021.
What happens inevitably with the tight end position is that fantasy owners over-draft players merely because they have drafted the rest of their starters, and tight end naturally follows. The error there is ADP cost based on what I pointed about above: unless you draft Kelce (1st-2nd round), Kittle (2nd round), or Waller (2nd round), their production won’t come close to matching the expected production from where they were selected. For instance, if you have waited on a tight end and already have your QB-RB-RB-WR-WR-FLEX positions filled, it’s the seventh round. The big three are gone, and based on what I’ve been seeing, Andrews, Hockenson, Fant, Goedert, and Pitts are also off the board by now. History has shown us that the tight ends left on the board in this region, they are all actually scoring about the same on a weekly basis. So unless you are really high on a guy based on his situation for the upcoming year, say you think Firkser or Irv Smith Jr are poised for a breakout, taking Mike Gesicki in the 7th or Blake Jarwin in the 14th will yield you right about the same production. Conversely, the production rate of wide receivers in that range is off the charts, and in PPR leagues where your flex is nearly always a WR, you need quality bench options to rotate weekly based on matchups and bye weeks. For example, in the 7thround you could draft someone like Robby Anderson, who had almost 100 catches for over 1000 yards in 2020, or you could draft Goedert, who will be considered a success if he gets 60 catches for 600 yards. Even a high ceiling RB bench player has more overall value at that ADP than a tight end who will most likely get you the same points as another guy you can take later when the position players have dried up. Basically, the risk of taking a tight end in the first ten rounds is fairly high unless you spend a high pick on Kelce, Waller, or Kittle. Of course, Kyle Pitts or Evan Engram COULD outscore Waller or Kelce, but we have little evidence other than blind hope to led to that conclusion.
The ugliest truth is that the TEs going after the Big 3 (Andrews, Fant, Pitts, Hockenson, Goedert, Thomas, Gronk, and Henry in some cases), they just can’t meet the point production you need from that ADP. These guys are being drafted in the 4th-7th round, that’s still in RB2-WR2-QB1 range, and guys are taking TJ Hockenson to fill their roster when TJ will average 11 points a week compared to taking guys like Will Fuller V, Ronald Jones, or even DJ Chark available in that range. Guys that average 15+ points per game. Robby Anderson.
My overall advice for a tight end draft strategy is basically this: If you want Travis Kelce, be prepared to spend your first pick on him. Kittle and Waller you will have to spend a second round pick on, if either somehow falls to the third they would be a steal there. But after that, you should really let your opponents waste their draft capital on the Second Tier guys in rounds 4-7, and do your research on the late round guys. As they all have about the same floor, pick the one you think has the best opportunity to exceed expectations and draft that guy after round 10 when you have comfortable depth for the meat of your team. For instance, my target tight ends this year based on draft value are Mike Gesicki, Evan Engram, and Tyler Higbee. Slow and steady wins the race with tight ends. Then draft a high ceiling winger with your last pick, like Kmet, Freiermuth, or Parham Jr, and if he blows up, trade your starter. Last season I had Waller and Hockenson, and I worked a trade with someone desperate and got Anthony Gibson for Hock…can never have too much draft capital. That being said, here are my tight end rankings for the 2021 fantasy season as of July 9th.
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