Week 1 gave us a lot to ponder, both good and bad. Was the "good" we saw a first-week mirage, ala Sammy Watkins' week 1 in 2018? And as for the "bad"...can these guys really be...that bad? If we are talking about fantasy start/sit, for me that does not include your obvious starters (everyone is starting Aaron Jones and Zeke Elliott this week, you have to). I put the line right around the fringe RB/WR2s, because if you went RB heavy early in your draft you most likely are debating between flex/bench level guys for your WR2, and vice versa if you went super WR heavy in the early rounds. And then of course the sleepers, we have to examine the late rounders who broke out week one and see if those performances were a product of their situation or if it's a sign of consistency to come.
Start of the Week
Jamal Williams
Detroit Lions-RB
SportsLeaf Line: 22.1 FP
6rush/45yds
8rec/76yds 1 TD
Jamal Williams had an excellent week 1 against the tough San Francisco defense, showing his versatility as a dual-threat back and proving there is room for two RBs in the Detroit backfield. The Lions face the humbled Green Bay Packers this week, and while we do expect a bounce-back from Rodgers and his crew, their defense is susceptible to what worked for Detroit against the 49ers: deep attack opening up the short game. Williams is one of the heavier-used RB2s in the league, and with teammate De'Andre Swift dealing with a groin injury that could limit his snaps, Williams is a prime flex/RB2 play depending on your roster situation. Don't leave this guy on your bench again, especially in PPR formats.
Start 'Em If Ya Got 'Em
Antonio Brown
Tampa Bay Buccaneers-WR
SportsLeaf Line: (18.8 FP)
8rec/88yds 1 TD
Antonio Brown shredded the Dallas defense along with fellow wideout Chris Godwin, putting up top-12 WR numbers in the first week. Now the dominant Tampa Bay offense goes up against the dreadful Atlanta defense, and it is clear that the Brady-Brown connection is going to be a feature throughout the 2021 season. Brown is a solid WR2/Flex play no question. Get this guy in a starting slot immediately.
Mike Williams
Los Angeles Chargers-WR
SportsLeaf Line: 19.5 FP
8rec/95yds 1 TD
The explosive wideout had a productive week 1 in a road victory against the WFT defense, grabbing 8 balls for 82 yards and a touchdown. Teammate Keenan Allen also had a good day, which is a good sign for Williams as they face the porous Dallas secondary that allowed massive days for both Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown last week. QB Justin Herbert is looking for a huge bounce-back day, so even if Williams doesn't garner a TD this week, his floor is a solid flex play.
Javonte Williams
Denver Broncos-RB
SportsLeaf Line: 15.1 FP
12rush/66yds 1 TD
2rec/15yds
In a fairly lop-sided week one road victory over the New York Giants, the rookie Williams definitely played second fiddle to starter Melvin Gordon, but as the game wound down Williams got the clock management rushes, leading the Denver backfield with 14 carries. We should see an even bigger lopsided victory against the Jaguars this weekend, meaning at the least, similar garbage time touches. Williams also saw a goal line rush week 1, and stands a good chance to actually punch one in against a Jacksonville defense in absolute disarray.
Corey Davis
New York Jets-WR
SportsLeaf Line: 19.9 FP
7rec/104yds 1 TD
The new Jets receiver had a buzz about him all camp, establishing a solid connection with rookie QB Zach Wilson in their preseason appearances. It all come to reality last week, with Davis posting a 5/97/2TD performance. The Jets did benefit from a few timely miscues from the Panthers defense week 1, but the health of their offensive line and a kind of disappointing run game is forcing the Jets to be more air-heavy than intended. This is good news for Davis, who looks to be targeted in key moments regardless of how well the game is actually going for New York. The Jets face the Patriots at home this week, and with the Pats missing star CB Stephon Gilmore again this week, there will be opportunities to be had for Davis.
Bench of the Week
Mike Davis
Atlanta Falcons-RB
SportsLeaf Line: 9.3 FP
12rush/66yds
3rec/12yds
Mike Davis always had a less-than-enthusiastic feel about him as far as his fantasy ability in Atlanta. I stayed away from him in every league, that's for sure. Week one already showed us that the suspicions about the Falcon's inability to move the ball is a reality we have to face. Even with Davis was being utilized exactly as we thought, he failed to have fantasy relevancy because when you are that bad of an offense, volume becomes meaningless. Davis is already in the "bench bye-week depth" conversation, and especially this week against the incredible run defense of Tampa Bay that made Zeke Elliott completely useless week 1, Davis should be firmly on your bench for this one.
Better Off Benched
James Robinson
Jacksonville Jaguars-RB
SportsLeaf Line: 6.2 FP
9rush/38yds
2rec/14yds
After the Ettienne injury, James Robinson was poised to re-take the starting role he held in 2020 and be a fantasy mid-round steal at the RB position. Well, that was assuming the Urban Meyer-led Jags wouldn't be quite the dumpster fire we saw last Sunday, and in light of that, it's impossible to predict where the ground game for Jacksonville goes from here. Meyer gave a surprising number of carries to Carlos Hyde, and the overall ineffectiveness of the offense (except through the air) was worrisome. Robinson faces the intense Denver defense that shut down the Giants ground game in week one, and unless Jacksonville turns a complete 180 from last week, I'm hesitant to start ANY Jag.
Eli Mitchell
San Francisco 49ers-RB
SportsLeaf Line: 8.8 FP
13rush/60yds
2rec/18yds
Eli Mitchell is the Week 2 knee-jerk waiver add, and while adding him is smart, starting him may not be. Mitchell will get the opportunity to be the feature back this week, but Kyle Shanahan optimally likes to dress 4 RBs and utilize at least 3 of them, and last week Mitchell saw a volume increase because of the Mostert injury and also the game script against Detroit: they only dressed three RBs, and when one went down, Mitchell saw the benefit. This week, third round rookie Trey Sermon will be in the mix, and despite a cooling-off on the hype around Sermon, he will see his share of the snaps against a questionable Philadelphia run defense. Sermon has undeniable talent, and SF wants him to be "the guy" (they traded what little draft capital they had after the Lance move to go up and get him, so if he busts a run or two, Mitchell could be irrelevant). The SF pass rush should keep shifty QB Jalen Hurts at bay, but if the Detroit game is any indication, this matchup could be closer than expected and that means less opportunities for Mitchell to be the "lead" back.
Christian Kirk
Arizona Cardinals-WR
SportsLeaf Line: 8.1 FP
5/56yds
Every week there is some guy who snags two touchdowns and is suddenly a must-start the following week, even though historically, even when elite wideouts score two touchdowns, they rarely do it twice in a row because the opposing defense checks out the film from the previous week and try to stop that from happening again. The Cardinals face the Vikings this week, and Minnesota knows they have to contain Hopkins and whoever else Kyler Murray is targeting that day. Since they will be likely padding the top coverage to prevent Kirk from having the same looks he had last week, there is a much better chance that AJ Green or another ancillary AZ wideout profits from the situation, rather than Kirk.
DJ Moore
Carolina Panthers-WR
SportsLeaf Line: 8.7 FP
5rec/62yds
DJ Moore pretty much fell off drafts boards for me as the season drew closer. When making projections, it's impossible to project CMC to have the crazy year he will have, and also have fantasy reliability from anyone else on that roster. McCaffrey is the short yardage receiver, the red zone receiver, and also makes it so Darnold doesn't really have to go deep as often. In week one, we did see Moore much more utilized than Darnold's old teammate Robby Anderson, although Anderson's lone catch was a touchdown. Moore definitely has flex value, but against a Saints defense that absolutely shut down Devante Adams and the Packers, this matchup isn't one to toss Moore out there on if you have any of the fringe players listed above available to start instead.
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