There were some hits, and there were some misses. Some guys were both at the same time. Let's take a look at what happened over the first week of NFL football and how that shaped the 2021 fantasy landscape.
Over Performers
Tyreek Hill
Amari Cooper
Tyler Lockett
Deebo Samuel
Kyler Murray
Jameis Winston
These guys had monster days for their squads week 1, and if you had one of them you were in a prime position to take home the victory. QB Kyler Murray and WR Tyreek Hill had lofty projections and still managed to blow them out of the water. Dallas WR Amari Cooper exploded against a solid defense and hauled in two touchdowns, and Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett also impressed with a 100 yard, 2-TD outing.
Saints QB Jameis Winston was riding the bench in most leagues, but blew the GB defense up with 5 touchdowns and no INTs, making him the overall QB3 on the week.
Star of the week, however, goes to 49ers wideout Deebo Samuel, who had an amazing 9/189/1 stat line, including a 79-yard touchdown reception that truly blew the top off fantasy in week 1.
Sleeper Hits
Jamal Williams
Antonio Brown
Matt Stafford
Devonta Smith
Jaylen Waddle
These are the guys who win you games. Later-round selections, guys you maybe left on your bench, but I have been high on them and they did not disappoint out of the gate. Antonio Brown clearly commands a healthy target share as expected and his talent is just too good to not have starting on your roster until we see otherwise. Jamal Williams was perhaps my biggest sleeper hit, as he was used exactly as expected and Williams had a great day finishing as the RB3 on the week even with fellow back De'Andre Swift posting similar numbers.
Devonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle were on my Rookie Start list, and both produced touchdowns and exceeded projections. QB Matt Stafford, drafted as one of the last starters off the board, shredded the Chicago defense and showed off his arm talent Sunday night, putting up similar numbers as Dak Prescott and Tom Brady, and outperforming highly drafted QBs like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson week 1.
Sleeper Misses
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Ronald Jones III
Terrace Marshall Jr
Jonnu Smith
Mike Gesicki
These are the guys I was pretty high on, but at least for week one the start was a little slow. In a move that mirrored last year, RB Ronald Jones put the ball on the ground and then was completely removed from the game plan, giving him negative points on the day (one of only 2 RBs to do do on the week, making him a worse start than Trey Sermon who didn't even dress).
Amon-Ra St Brown and Terrace Marshall Jr were active in their starts, but despite Jared Goff throwing the ball a lot in a comeback against San Francisco, St Brown was not the target of his passes. This was due to St Brown seeing a lot of the top coverage by the stout SF defense, so hopefully the rookie can bounce back and have fantasy value as the season progresses. Marshall is part of a deep receiving group in Carolina that is basically headlined by RB Christian McCaffrey, so until fatigue causes some competition to require time off, Marshall is a TD-dependant fantasy start.
TE Jonnu Smith didn't see the red zone opportunities needed for a good fantasy day with rookie QB Mac Jones, and while I think that will change in the future, Smith certainly didn't help anyone win their games. Late round sleeper TE Mike Gesicki was a top-10 guy for me, but put up a big fat 0 Sunday, seeing less snaps than fellow TE Durham Smythe and registering no catches on only two targets. This is worrisome as Gesicki certainly could have been employed more, but simply wasn't, so his status is certainly questionable until we see otherwise.
Sleepers Who Hit
(But I Missed)
Adam Thielen
Jamar Chase
Mark Ingram II
Eli Mitchell
I have been down on Thielen all offseason because of his age, his touchdown dependacy for fantasy relevancy, and the addition of Irv Smith Jr to steal his red zone targets. Irv Smith went down for the year, and that certainly freed up Thielen to go off Sunday, reigning in two scores and finishing the week as the WR4 (!). I'd like to say it isn't sustainable, but with Justin Jefferson drawing the best coverage, Thielen could see a high red zone target share all year.
With age comes durability concerns though, so try to secure some depth behind the wideout. Rookie Jamar Chase I love, but was willing to let him ride the bench for a few weeks til we saw the rust shake off. Well, the rust is gone, and Chase showed his route running ability and speed right off the bat against the Vikings, taking his 5 catches over 100 yards and getting into the end zone once. If you didn't start Chase last week, he should immediately be elevated to flex status at least, unless you have ridiculous WR depth.
Ingram was certainly a major surprise, commanding the carries in a dominant game over teammate Philip Lindsay. San Francisco RB Eli Mitchell popped off after starting RB Raheem Mostert went down for the season with a knee injury (I had the over/under on games played for Mostert at 3 and took the under, so I guess I at least hit there).
There is caution to be had with Mitchell and Ingram however, as Mitchell had much of his production on one rushing play and got the volume he saw because of the Mostert injury. Fellow rookie Trey Sermon will be in the committee starting next week, and even if Mitchell keeps the primary role, the crowded backfield could render them all fairly pedestrian, and TD-dependant for true weekly value. I'm still holding on to my prediction that Sermon will emerge as the leader in SF so I have a "wait and see" approach with both RBs at this point.
Exceeded Expectations
Chris Godwin
De'Andre Swift
Zach Wilson
Corey Davis
Joe Mixon
Jared Goff
TJ Hockenson
Nick Chubb
Melvin Gordon III
Kareem Hunt
Brandin Cooks
Rob Gronkowski
This a big list, and we don't need to go too in-depth. Some of these players, like Nick Chubb, had high projections and managed to meet/exceed them, and some like Joe Mixon had projections I thought were low, and he blew those away (which made me happy). You also had guys like Melvin Gordon, Rob Gronkowski, and Jared Goff accomplish some things which may not be necessarily sustainable, but we now know they have that potential each week.
Chris Godwin and De'Andre Swift fell in drafts closer to the start of the season, but came out week one and put up healthier numbers than many of the players they were passed over for. I always thought Brandin Cooks would have a solid year, and that looks to be a real situation in Houston. TJ Hockenson has consistently been a steady TE, but suddenly with Goff and a new coaching staff, he put up overall-TE3 numbers and even outscored Travis Kelce.
Corey Davis and Zach Wilson both surprised in their New York debuts, though it will be interesting to see if that connection is a weekly occurrence or a product of the scheme they faced and an ineffective run game against Carolina.
Met Expectations
Dalvin Cook
Diontae Johnson
Robert Woods
Darrell Henderson
David Montgomery
Dak Prescott
CeeDee Lamb
Travis Kelce
Darren Waller
Christian McCaffrey
Alvin Kamara
Joe Burrow
Our "meets expectations" list has a lot of varying levels of expectations that were met. High profile players like Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Dak Prescott had great weeks, but they were projected to have great weeks. Same with Dalvin Cook and CeeDee Lamb: they had decent weeks, but neither broke out above what their floor was, and they didn't flop either.
I was hoping for more from Diontae Johnson, Robert Woods, and Joe Burrow, but they were't projected all that high and they met or exceeded those numbers at least, which gives us hope for the coming weeks.
Failed Expectations
Mike Evans
Josh Allen
Justin Herbert
Najee Harris
Lamar Jackson
George Kittle
Antonio Gibson
Austin Ekeler
This list is the guys who were drafted as starters with pretty high expectations and they just fell a little flat. Mike Evans will have situational value depending on matchups, but what we saw last Thursday is the new reality for Evans and if you drafted him as more than that...whoops I guess?
We can definitely expect bounce-back weeks from star QBs Justin Herbert and Josh Allen, who just had some communication issues in week one and perhaps just a little rust to knock off. Lamar Jackson is a true conundrum, as he didn't look good on third downs and once again, his main value is with his legs and he fumbles a lot.
George Kittle should be okay, but depending on how the Jimmy G/Lance hand off is going, Kittle may find his role diminished from a fantasy perspective.
Najee Harris, who is my highest-ranked player on this list, faced a stiff Buffalo defense, but the main shocker was that he did get the volume, just very little production with the opportunities given. Harris looks to regain some ground in week 2 and have his first breakout game against a banged-up Las Vegas team that had a rough defensive day against the Baltimore ground game.
Bust of the Week
Ezekiel Elliott
Zeke was a fairly unanimous first round pick in fantasy drafts, with high goals set after a middling year behind Andy Dalton in 2020. With the healthy Dak/Mike McCarthy offense in Dallas, Zeke was expected to excel in both the rush and short pass game. Against Tampa Thursday, the Bucs rush defense was on point and as the game stayed close offensively throughout, the opportunities to run the ball dried up quickly. Zeke managed only 13 yards on the ground and just 2 receptions for 6 yards.
He was outscored by handcuff teammate Tony Pollard because of Pollard's usage in the pass game, and Pollard did not have a good day by any means. I wouldn't bail on Zeke just yet, especially with slot target Michael Gallup slated to miss a few weeks, but his usage certainly needs to be monitored. He was drafted as "the plan" at RB for many fantasy teams and if that isn't going to be the case it should become apparent as early as week 2.
Complete Flops
Aaron Jones
Devante Adams
Aaron Rodgers
GB Defense
These are guys who basically underperformed at such a shocking level that you can't put them on a normal "suck" list. Aaron Jones and Devante Adams were drafted highly and expected to continue the trajectory they had established last year. Even if it regressed a little, as expected, these guys were still bona fide league winners if you snagged them at the right place in the draft. Well...the whole GB situation fell apart against the Saints Sunday afternoon, and while we don't expect that to be a weekly occurrence, if you had any stock in pretty much any GB player (including their defense) you had a pretty low chance of winning week 1.
Aaron Rodgers delivered a devastating 1.32pt performance, quite the shock for last season's MVP who analysts were saying could be the steal of the draft at QB with how he was falling. I'm not burying the Packers yet, but this certainly is a sign that the historic regression we see from elite teams like GB last year might be way more significant than we even predicted.
Stay tuned for the Start/Sit advice dropping tomorrow to help you with your Week 2 decisions!
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