CodyJOliver

Sep 22, 20217 min read

SportsLeaf Tunnel Talk: Week 2

After the high-flying scoring of week 1, the NFL settled down a little for week 2 and we saw some defenses step up and limit the fantasy impact of many highly-projected players. So what happened?

NFL's week one is notorious for being a mirage, full of false hopes for teams that came out like gangbusters, and despair for the teams that fell flat. Week two brings us some clarity, and we can begin to sleuth our way to some opinions about how the season will play out. Let's break down the good, the bad, and the ugly from week two and how it affected the fantasy landscape.

The Stats

Week one we saw some pretty impressive numbers from a large pool of players at every level. In half PPR formats, there were 26 running backs who posted 10+ point games, 24 wide receivers over 15 points, and 15 quarterbacks over 20 points. By week two, that regressed to only 17 RBs over 10, only 19 WRs over 15, and only 11 QBs over 20 points. And of course, not all of these players who had good weeks were on starting rosters...unless you are in a deeper league, I doubt anyone started JD McKissic this week. Conversely, in week one we saw only 1 defense post over 15 points; in week two, there were 4. Defenses score fantasy points by limiting the yardage and points they allow, but primarily they gain positive points by turnovers and sacks, and we saw a huge increase in those stats in week 2.

While we saw regression as a whole from offensive players in fantasy, week two also showed us that some things are just going to be hard to predict. Tyreek Hill put up almost 200 yards in week one, but Sunday night against the Ravens he was held to just 14. Derrick Henry rushed 17 times for 58 yards against the Cardinals week one...he carried the rock 35 freaking times for 182 yards in an unlikely comeback OT victory, adding 6 receptions for 55 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns, 44.7 points in half PPR. Amari Cooper put up close to 40 fantasy points week one...he posted 3 week two. You have to start all these guys every week, and you expect average performances at the least, but regardless of matchups there are just some things we can't predict. Like Alvin Kamara being basically removed from the Saints game plan against Carolina, or Aaron Jones coming up with four touchdowns on Monday night.

Bounce-Back Week

Derrick Henry was not the only bounce-back player from week one to week two. Here are some guys that might have lost you week one, but showed why you drafted them in week two:

Ezekiel Elliott (4.9/ 16.7)

Devante Adams (5.6/ 16.1)

Aaron Rodgers (3.32/26.82)

Aaron Jones (3.2/ 38.5)

Terry McLaurin (8.2/ 22.2)

Chris Carson (9.7/ 15.1)

Derrick Henry (9.2/ 44.7)

Najee Harris (5.4/ 16.6)

Highly-drafted rookie Najee Harris faced a tough Buffalo defense week one but didn't do much with his 16 carries and three targets. He bounced back week 2, increasing his yard-per-carry average by a whole yard, and showing his explosiveness in the passing game with 5 receptions including one for a touchdown. Aaron Jones became one of the few players in history to score four touchdowns in a game Monday night, and of course it looks like Aaron Rodgers isn't throwing the season as was being speculated.

Reality Checks

Some players absolutely stunned in week one, but came back down to earth a little in week two, showing us the reality of positional players: it's all matchup and game flow based. You can take a perfect prediction and see it play out exactly as you thought, yet a penalty calls back the touchdown that goes to a different player the next snap, or the Titans run Derrick Henry 35 times despite being down by multiple scores most of the time. Some things just happen. Here are some guys who had stellar week 1 showings but probably made you a little sad in week two:

Tyreek Hill (31.6/ 4.4)

Amari Cooper (32.4/ 3.9)

Dak Prescott (28.42/ 8.48)

Darren Waller (21.5/ 9.0)

Joe Mixon (23.0/ 7.6)

Jonathan Taylor (14.6/ 5.8)

These guys were highly drafted in fantasy and made us feel pretty good about our decisions, but we must remember that with most of these guys, we knew they were going to have up and down weeks based on the offenses they play on. Preferably you don't want your stars having the variance we saw with these guys, but when you have Hill and Cooper playing on prolific offenses with lots of other talent, there will be games where the opposing defenses shut them down. Especially in games immediately following breakout games, you generally see regression because the next defense watches the tape from the previous week and do what they can to eliminate that happening to them. There isn't much to worry about here, as even though they turned in bad performances, their roles are secure. Mixon and Taylor look to be troublesome however if their teams cannot overcome negative game scripts, as they have been fairly cut out of the game plan when in losing situations.

Week 2 Mirages

Much like week one (and every week) there were some players who had incredible days that we probably shouldn’t over-react to. Without as many breakout performances, there isn’t as much to analyze, but we saw that these guys have the potential, at least situationally, to achieve these lofty goals. That makes them risky flexes week to week, but gives us confidence in our bench depth as we approach bye week season.

Tony Pollard (21.5)

Cordarrelle Patterson (21.4)

JD McKissic (17.8)

Zach Moss (13.4)

Henry Ruggs III (20.0)

Freddie Swain (18.5)

KJ Osborn (17.6)

Mike Evans (22.0)

Pollard is one of the best handcuff backs in fantasy because he also has value in his own role, and in a tough matchup with the Chargers he saw 13 carries and 3 receptions, totaling over 100 yards and a touchdown. He saw this production with lead back Zeke Elliott also having a good day, which is a good sign, but his production largely came at the expense of the air attack and that won't be a consistent Dallas gameplan moving forward. Patterson and McKissic are interesting because they are seeing a fair amount of usage through two games, though fantasy impact is touchdown reliant. Ruggs has amazing talent, but I'm still waiting to see him targeted consistently before he can be an every-week flex. Moss scored two touchdowns but also fumbled, and teammate Devin Singletary has solidified the lead back role for the time being. Swaim and Osborn are worth a look if not rostered, but both profited from matchups that aren't likely to be replicated often. Mike Evans had a prime matchup against a Falcons defense that had no answer for his presence in the end zone, and they didn't for Gronk either, as both Tampa players caught two touchdowns. I look back to week one however and saw Evans swallowed by coverage and the clear fourth look for Brady, so despite Antonio Brown being held to a meager target share against Atlanta, several of his best plays (including a touchdown pass) were negated by penalties. Evans profited from the extra looks against a porous defense, and while he does have value, he will be a roller-coaster all year. It's a good time to trade him if anyone needs a receiver, his value probably won't get higher.

Solid Gold

These guys came out spitting fire week one and backed it up week two doing the same. Will it continue to week three and beyond? We don't know, but these guys are killing it with consistency through 2. (Wk1, Wk2)

QB Kyler Murray (34.56, 35.10)

RB Christian McCaffrey (23.2, 22.2)

RB Nick Chubb (21.2, 16.3)

WR Cooper Kupp (20.3, 32.3)

WR Tyler Lockett (24.0, 27.8)

WR Mike Williams (18.2,18.6)

WR Brandin Cooks (15.7, 18.3)

TE Travis Kelce (22.6, 20.4)

TE Rob Gronkowski (25.0, 17.9)

TE TJ Hockenson (21.7, 16.6)

Everyone expected CMC and Kelce to be good, but Brandin Cooks and Tyler Lockett? They are showing that week one was more than an anomaly, as they continue to see a large target share and are quite productive with the ball when it comes their way.

Perhaps the most electrifying is Rams WR Cooper Kupp, who has been the beneficiary of the new Matt Stafford offense in LA.

Building Confidence

These players are in situations that should lend themselves to fantasy production, but because of factors out of their control such as coaching, QB skill/tendency, and overall competency of the offense, they are risky and their draft positions reflected that. However, after two weeks we saw a few that have promising outlooks based on the target share/usage they have seen.

Courtland Sutton

Marquise Brown

Deebo Samuel

CeeDee Lamb

Chris Godwin

Darrell Henderson

Devin Singletary

Ty'Son Williams

Jamal Williams

Robert Tonyan

With Jerry Jeudy out, Courtland Sutton is getting the main looks from Teddy Bridgewater and his production should remain solid. Hollywood Brown has seen a large share of Lamar Jackson's targets and will have huge weeks whenever he can get into the end zone, which he has in seven of his last eight games now. Deebo Samuel did score a lot of his week-1 points on a 79-yd touchdown (a 14.4pt fantasy play) but he also has seen a lot of the passing volume in each game which is a great sign for future scoring opportunities. CeeDee has been super consistent and enjoyed similar workloads in both the TB and LAC games, despite the game scripts being quite different. With the bruised ribs for Amari Cooper limiting his week 3 action, that bodes well for Lamb in a depleted WR corps already missing Michael Gallup. Chris Godwin has emerged as the WR1 for Tom Brady, being the most reliably targeted by the veteran in a pass-heavy offense with tons of talent.

Darrell Henderson was up and down draft boards with people not sure about the new Rams offense and if Henderson could take the Cam Akers role, but I have been high on Henderson and through two weeks he is proving to be the clear RB1 on a very explosive LA team. Devin Singletary backed up a solid week one with a huge week 2 despite teammate Zach Moss reaching the end zone twice, meaning we can expect him to see the majority of the yardage snaps at least for the Bills backfield. These two are a large reason Josh Allen has been a disappointment, Buffalo is using their running backs to actually run the ball in the red zone. Even with the Ravens RB room fraught with injury, we saw Ty'Son Williams have a large role once again for the Ravens, meaning I think (if healthy) he will retain that 1A role with Lamar Jackson. Jamal Williams didn't scream on the stat sheet like I hoped against Green Bay, though we can be happy about the snap count and target share Williams enjoyed alongside DeAndre Swift, meaning he has high upside but will be limited by the overall Lions effectiveness in certain matchups. Robert Tonyan is trending upwards because Aaron Rodgers is trending upwards, and with the tight end position being miserable in 2021 any glimmer of hope is a light in the football tunnel.

The Worry List

We gave these guys a pass week one, but when struggles persist week two...we have to wonder if perhaps they are going to be unreliable fantasy assets even on the bench. Not cutting bait yet, but they are on the radar.