The Cincinnati running back was productive with a limited Joe Mixon a few weeks back, but then remained so when Mixon returned healthy (or, as healthy as Joe Mixon gets). Available in over 74% of ESPN leagues, is Perine someone we should all be rostering?
Samaje Perine was used sparingly to say the least through the first four weeks of the season, as lead back Joe Mixon led the league in carries and snaps early on (until Derrick Henry came along). That heavy workload took it's toll however, and Perine took 11 carries to Mixon's 10 in a week 5 close loss to Green Bay. Perine also caught four passes for 24 yards and a touchdown in the matchup.
The following week found Perine on the Covid-19 list, missing the matchup against Detroit, but returning for the tough road game against divison rival Baltimore. Burrow and the Bengals unexpectedly routed the Ravens, and Perine was involved heavily again taking 11 carries for 52 yards and a score alongside Mixon's 12 carries 59 yards and a score. Their snap count was close to even as well, 30 to Mixon's 34.
To break down Perine's production, let's go back. Week 5, Joe Mixon was clearly limited. Despite Mixon scoring a touchdown (which saved his fantasy day), Perine out-snapped him 41 to 19, and high snap counts tend to lead to fantasy production. The following week was unfortunate as CoVid protocols prevented us from seeing if he could follow up his week 5 production against the lowly Lions, and by week 7 Mixon was looking 100% again. A healthy Mixon generally doesn't leave the field in any situation, so why did Perine see the field so much in Baltimore?
Part of it was game script. The Bengals had the game firmly in hand by the third quarter and that allowed for head coach Zac Taylor to preserve Mixon's health and get Perine more involved. What's worrisome about it is, remember that week 7 stat line from above, 11/52/1? Well, most of those yards came on a garbage time 46-yard touchdown run late in the fourth quarter, meaning without that one play...Perine was staring down a 10 carry, 6 yard game. Granted most of his carries came during clock management time when Baltimore knew exactly what was coming, but that is still an indicator of how the Bengals view his role on the team.
So, the burning question...should we be rostering Samaje Perine? The short answer is yes. Despite Perine's main fantasy value coming from a few broken plays, he has seen an uptick in snap share as the Bengals puts themselves in more favorable game situations and can rely on Mixon less. The Cincinnati offense has also become one of the most prolific in the league, and RB2s on high-scoring offenses are valuable in multiple ways. They provide a high-volume handcuff in case of starter limitations, and also are guaranteed late-game usage in positive matchups (case in point: the Baltimore game).
The negative aspect of Perine is that he is completely a product of the Bengals weekly situation. He is talented, but you could plug any back in his place and expect the same. If the Bengals are clicking on offense and blowing teams out, Perine will see a healthy workload late in games and has a chance every week to plow in a fourth quarter touchdown. As much as I like the Bengals however, we can't expect them to blow teams out on a weekly basis. They haven't shown that capability all year minus the Detroit game and the (possibly flukey) Baltimore thrashing. This is still the team that lost to the Bears and almost lost to Jacksonville. In negative game scripts, the Bengals do not trust Perine on the impactful downs which limits his fantasy viability to unpredictable at best.
The main reason I'm rostering Perine over backups on my bench like Nyheim Hines is...Joe Mixon. I don't trust that Mixon will be 100% healthy every week going forward, why should I? And with how Burrow and the Bengals offense have elevated to a higher plane, whatever running back that lines up out there is going to have fantasy value. Even in weeks where Mixon lands on the injury report but ends up playing, we know there will be a load share happening and Perine has flex value there. Additionally, matchups that profile as blowouts are custom made for RB2 success (Perine is one of my SportsLeaf Sleepers for week 8 against the New York Jets).
Go grab Samaje Perine. You know you have TY Hilton or a backup tight end on your bench who you just need to cut ties with, and replace with someone who has potential. Perine is that guy right now. If Mixon were to go down for significant time, Perine would be the hottest waiver pickup since Chuba Hubbard. Go get him for free right now and stash him for bye week help or handcuff insurance.
Check out the SportsLeaf Sleepers for Week 8, posting soon!
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