With a quarter of the season down, let's take a look back at who I valued before the first snap and how things are looking now, as far as my draft advice went.
(* = missed 1 game or more)
With quarterbacks, it's not so much getting the top 12 correct as it is getting their rankings correct, since you can only start one them. Preferably you want your top 5 projected guys to be in the top 5 after a quarter, but I only have 2 (Mahomes and Murray) who have excelled at that level so far.
10 of my top 12 are actually top 12 QBs currently though, so that's good. After a rough start, Aaron Rodgers profiles to enter the upper echelon eventually, but Tannehill and the Titans have been a disappointment and injuries to both his pass catchers isn't helping.
Sam Darnold has been amazing in Panthers system both with and without CMC, and Daniel Jones has profited by playing from behind in close games, making him a risky yet viable fantasy starter through the first four weeks.
The running back position group as a whole has been decimated by injuries through camp and the first quarter of the season. Those nervous about selecting CMC and Cook because of injury concerns have already seen those fears realized, and once again the receiving backs are dominating the rankings due to their consistent floors and high breakout potential.
Currently 28 of my top 36 are actually in the top 36, which is a 78% hit rate, but we will see how future injuries and load sharing affects the production of the RB group.
Wide receivers can be hard to predict based on the fact that there are so many of them used in each game, and so many factors are involved in deciding who has the best shot at producing.
Through four weeks, there isn't a big point difference between the 32nd ranked receiver and the 45th ranked receiver, so expect this to get shaken up on a weekly basis. Currently I have 21 of the top 36 in there (59%), but I expect a lot of those orange-colored names to rotate back in my favor as the season shakes out.
Biggest disappointments so far for me are AJ Brown, Robert Woods, Tee Higgins, and Brandon Aiyuk, who I expected to see the majority of targets on their respective teams but because of injury or other factors, all four have failed to produce at a top 36 level.
Biggest surprises are Deebo Samuel and Mike Williams. A healthy Samuel so far is absolutely shredding defenses ala Tyreek Hill, and while I was high on Mike Williams as a sleeper candidate, I don't think anyone expected him to be a top 5 receiver after four games.
Tight ends are tricky because there was a lot of speculation about the prospects this year outside of the big three. I do have 8 of the top 12 currently performing at expected levels, 67%, but I would like more of them to be higher on the list than they are
Kyle Pitts has had a predictably rough start to his NFL career, but that will likely change down the stretch of the season and I expect to him to enter the top 12 at some point.
Logan Thomas and Tyler Higbee have had their moments, but haven't broken out to a point where they are winning you games and Thomas is now out for multiple weeks with a hamstring.
Jonnu Smith just hasn't seen the red zone usage I was hoping for when ranking him as highly as I did in the off-season. Conversely, I totally missed on young TE Dawson Knox, who is on an absolute tear, and Dalton Schultz has emerged as the TE to have in Dallas (I thought it would be Blake Jarwin).
Mike Gesicki was my sleeper TE steal, and he had a rough start with Tua but Brissett is actually targeting his tight end in the short game and that is helping Gesicki break into the must-start ranks.
Check out the Ball 'Em/Bench 'Em First Quarter ReCap and see how those predictions have gone so far!
Comments