We are a few weeks away from the NFL Draft, and speculation still abounds as to where the elite prospects in the 2022 draft will go.
We could see a trade that puts a QB-thirsty franchise squarely in the top ten, but as it sits right now we're rolling with this forecast for the top ten (until we hear different rumors, at least).
1. Jaguars: Evan Neal
-Offensive Tackle, Alabama
Could the Jags take a generational pass rusher here? It's still a possibility, but Jacksonville has invested in their defensive line with three first rounders in the last four drafts. In 2021 they made the ultimate investment in Trevor Lawrence and Travis Ettienne, so rather than pad the defense again the Jags opt for another generational piece, this time on offense. Neal is the best tackle prospect of the class, coming from Alabama where he allowed only 24 pressures in two seasons against the toughest pass rushers in college football. Neal is a monster at 6' 7" and 350lbs yet has a quickness on his feet you generally see in much smaller men. In drafting Neal the Jags have a perennial Pro-Bowler locked in for the better part of the next decade to grow with their developing young quarterback.
2. Lions: Aidan Hutchinson
-Defensive End, Michigan
The Lions are zeroing in on Travon Walker as their prospect of choice, but much of that is assuming Jacksonville is drafting Hutchinson. If the Jags opt to go offensive line, Detroit won't be able to pass up on the Michigan defensive end who was the PFF's highest-graded player (not edge...overall player) in 2021. At 6' 6" and 265lbs, "Hutch" has the length to create leverage against the thickest of tackles, and his 4.7 speed is lethal for a man of that size. Detroit gets a steal if Hutchinson falls to #2.
3. Texans: Travon Walker
-Defensive End, Georgia
Travon Walker was all over boards until he destroyed the NFL Combine last month, running a 4.5 40 yard dash as a 6' 5" 275lb man. Walker was a leader on the crowded Georgia defense that played for a National Championship a few months ago, and despite needing some development in the pass rush area (9.5 sacks in 3 seasons) his size and speed combo isn't something you see often. Detroit loves Walker's potential, but in the scenario where Jacksonville takes a tackle, I don't see them selecting Walker over Hutchinson. Houston gets the opportunity to secure a defensive cornerstone of their future with the explosive Georgia product.
4. NY Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux
-Defensive End, Oregon
Kayvon Thibodeaux is "shocked" that he isn't considered the best player in the 2022 draft. He has a certain type of mindset that NFL teams like, and if you listen to his interviews he fully expects to be the first overall pick. Thibodeaux has the size and speed to have an immediate impact wherever he is drafted, and despite seeing a lot of Sauce Garner mocked here, New York knows Thibodeaux is the last of the elite pass rushers in this draft and they can't afford to pass him up here.
5. NY Giants: Ikem Ikwonu
-Offensive Tackle, NC State
"Ickey" Ikwonu is quickly becoming a household name, with some analysts projecting him as high as #1 to Jacksonville after he lit up the Senior Bowl. "A gentleman in class and a killer on the grass" according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, Ikwonu checks all the boxes you need from an elite college tackle. At 6' 4" and 320lbs, yet still sub-5.0 in the 40 department, he has lateral speed and footwork to keep the staunchest pass rushers at bay. The Giants are in dire need of better production from their offensive line, and with Daniel Jones, Saquan Barkley, and Kenny Golladay still the foundation of their offense, Ikwonu provides an immediate starter who can fill the right tackle role. Could the Giants take a pass rusher or defensive back here? Possibly, but if Ikwonu falls to #5 he likely is the Giant's best player on the board and they will be hard pressed to let him slip by.
6. Panthers: Charles Cross
-Offensive Tackle, Ole Miss
The Panthers have penciled in a quarterback here all off-season, generally Kenny Pickett but head coach Matt Rhule has shown increased interest in Malik Willis of late. Ultimately the front office will likely cool on taking a flawed quarterback this high with so many other holes to fill roster-wide. We also can’t forget the Panthers coaching staff needs to put together some sort of a winning season if they wish to retain their jobs past mid-season, and tossing developing signal-callers to the wolves generally gets you fired. Carolina still has Christian McCaffrey on the the roster, and Charles Cross is perhaps the most starter-ready pass-blocking tackle in the class. Carolina's offensive strength lies in the short-pass game, and Cross will have an immediate impact providing protection for whoever Carolina rolls out to dump the ball off to McCaffrey.
7. Giants: Kyle Hamilton
-S, Notre Dame
Everyone and no one is talking about Kyle Hamilton's disappointing NFL Combine numbers in March. For the highest-graded safety coming out of college in over a decade, projected as high as the second or third overall selection...he ran a 4.74 40 yard dash and underwhelmed teams and fans alike. Analysts are quick to look at his tape from Notre Dame, and they aren't wrong when they say he "plays faster than a 4.7", but it is certainly enough to make the star slip out of the top 5. New York is in a prime position to trade down here, but if they can't find a partner they have plenty of roster needs to fill. Many expect the Giants to take an edge rusher here but with the elite three gone, New York addresses the fact that they only have two safeties on their roster (with neither of them being very good) and selects the dynamic Notre Dame product as a cornerstone of their defense moving forward.
8. Falcons: Garrett Wilson
-WR, Ohio State
Atlanta is still in the market to trade down should they find a suitor, but in the absence of that the Falcons should address another huge area of need: wide receiver. Atlanta traded their veteran Julio Jones last year and amid a host of issues keeping young star Calvin Ridley off the field, Kyle Pitts is all they have as a pass catcher. They have their pick of the litter in 2022, and while Wilson is my WR3 in this class there is sizeable momentum behind the rumors that Atlanta loves the Ohio State product. Wilson gives the Falcons a weapon for new quarterback Marcus Mariota and a base for an offense when they bring on the quarterback of the future eventually.
9. Seahawks: Derek Stingley Jr
-CB, LSU
Seattle is in full rebuild mode after trading Russell Wilson to Denver (this used to be Denver's pick), and while they could draft Malik Willis here...there are rumors they have other plans for the position. After releasing veteran Bobby Wagner, the Seahawks defense has Jamal Adams and that's about it. Could they go edge? Certainly, but at this point in the draft the elite edge rushers have been snapped up and what's left is the elite defensive backs. Derek Stingley Jr is the PFF 3rd overall ranked player in this class and although he has fallen a little in mocks lately, it has less to do with him and more to do with the teams selecting in the top ten and their positions of greatest need. He won't fall past #9 however, as Seattle takes the best player remaining on the board and the future of their pass defense.
10. NY Jets: Ahmad Gardner
-CB, Cincinnati
Could we flip-flop #4 and #10 and get the same results for New York? Possibly, and there have been rumors galore about New York taking Cincinatti's "Sauce" Gardner with the fourth overall selection. In the end, they are forced to take the last elite-graded pass rusher with the higher pick as he wouldn't make it down to #10, while it's all but guaranteed that one of the elite-graded defensive backs will. Stingley Jr carries the higher grade of the two and has also garnered more interest from Seattle's staff as of late, but New York has been smitten with Gardner since his stellar combine performance, and having him fall to their second pick in the first round is a home run for the Jets.
Want the full first round mock? Check out the full SportsLeaf Mock #2 and see how the rest of the round plays out.
The NFL Draft begins Thursday, April 28th.
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