In this weekly series, we try to manifest some fantasy destiny by taking a look at starters you may want to consider benching for a week, in lieu of players who are primed to outscore them based on matchups and other factors.
Traditionally we tend to stick with the safe play, especially at quarterback, but there are some situations in which you may want to give your roster a second glance if you find one of our breakouts chilling on your bench. Rather than a “start/sit” list, this addresses more spontaneous issues you may face. Think of it as an “if and then” evaluation of your situation and how to be aware of your options so you aren’t staring at a 4 point loss Monday night with your key to victory sitting on your bench.
QB CONUNDRUM
Jameis Winston
New Orleans Saints-QB
Week 1: 29.6 FP (QB4)
SportsLeaf Line (Wk2): 22.36 FP
20/28 214yds 3-TDs 1-INT
4rush 38yds
Jameis Winston started off the season as Drew Bree's replacement with a bang, throwing an incredible 5 touchdown passes in a complete dismantling of the Green Bay Packers. Winston only threw the ball 20 times though, and only 14 completions that means every third caught pass was a touchdown. Those numbers aren't sustainable, but it's also unlikely Carolina self-destructs like Green Bay did. The Saints will be faced with a tougher test Sunday against the Panthers defense, who are fresh off a win against the Jets where they tallied 6 sacks and an interception while allowing only 14 points. Jameis Winston isn't Jets rookie Zach Wilson, and the Jets don't have Alvin Kamara, so expect this game to go a little differently for Carolina. If the game is close, Winston could far exceed his 214 projected yards, and even predicting some obvious touchdown regression and a probable turnover, he still profiles to have a solid 20+pt floor.
But do you start him Week 2? Well, if we look at last week, 22.36 fantasy points would have put him squarely in the QB11-12 range, so replacing your starter with Winston is a fairly risky move since your starter likely is projected better than low-end QB1 numbers. That being said, it also entirely depends who your starter is. Pretty much all of the top-12 drafted fantasy QBs have ceilings above 22 points for week 2, but may have floor values much lower than what Winston offers. Here are a few starting-caliber QBs that have such a risky floor, I would consider swapping in Winston for this week:
Ryan Tannehill
Tennessee Titans-QB
@ Seattle Seahawks
SportsLeaf Line (Wk2): 20.1 FP
22/35 270yds 2-TDs
3rush 13yards
The Arizona Cardinals defense basically took the Titans offensive line out back behind the bleachers and stole their lunch money. It looked like boys against men out there. Tannehill was sacked 6 times (5 by Chandler Jones alone) and with Derrick Henry neutralized, the weaknesses of the Tennessee offense began to get exposed. Tannehill did rush in a touchdown, something that always adds a boost to his value, but without that Tannehill would have barely cleared double digits. This week the Titans head to Seattle, where it's the home opener for the Seahawks after containing the Colts to 16 points in Indy and securing the victory. Tannehill offers a solid floor, but only if he has time in the pocket behind an effective run game. Without decent protection from a historically solid O-line, Tannehill's floor projections realistically become ceiling projections. Tennessee has the offensive talent to put up fantasy numbers even if they lose Sunday, but the problem with Tannehill is that he isn't always the benefactor. The Titans are going to force the rock to Derrick Henry this week, especially in the red zone, and we may see the fantasy points flow through the RB rather than the signal caller as a result.
At the end of the day, Tannehill and Winston likely finish the week with similar fantasy points. Both have similar projections, and could easily top those as they have fairly moderate projections to begin with. The main difference is that after last week, we saw a good (not great) Arizona defense crush the Titans, and the Seahawks have a good (not great) defense. If Tannehill is your starter you most likely waited on QB and also have a Trevor Lawrence-type backup. At least for week 2, until we see the Tennessee offense sputter back to life, I like Winston's matchup over Tannehill and most backups.
Kirk Cousins
Minnesota Vikings-QB
@ Arizona Cardinals
SportsLeaf Line: 17.81 FP
27/41 295.2yds 2-TDs 1-INT
Cousins stacked decent numbers during the comeback against Cincinnati week 1, but once again it took an unfortunate situation (getting blown out) to squeeze fantasy value out of highly-paid QB. The Bengals did a good job of containing Dalvin Cook and making sure Justin Jefferson didn't beat them over the top, and that led to a scheme where we saw the max efficient value of Cousins. He had nearly 50 pass attempts, the game went to OT, and still the QB managed just 22 FP. That's a solid floor but if you have Cousins in your starting conversation, you probably have a late-round QB roster and you added Tua or Trey Lance as your backup even later. Cousins is a better option than either of those guys, but faces the dominant Arizona pass rush that wrecked Ryan Tannehill last week. Dalvin Cook will be an even heavier part of the gameplan on Sunday, but keeping Cousins upright will be a tall task for the Viking line. Even projecting Cousins at close to 300 yards, I still like the ceiling Winston offers for week 2 over the risk that Cousins suffers the same fate as Tannehill did a week ago.
Winston > Tannehill
Winston > Cousins
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