There's start/sit, and then there is this.
Risky Business (High Risk/Reward)
This week we are going to try to manifest some fantasy magic by taking a look at some fringe guys in unique situations. Sometimes you have no choice but to make a bold flex or even RB2/WR2 start due to injury or a necessity for ceiling production in order to win a matchup. If you find yourself in this situation, here are some guys who potentially can bust out a huge day for you. But the floors...well, it's a little risky.
Risk(s) of the Week
Odell Beckham Jr
Beckham tore his ACL in October of last year and hasn't hit the field since. He has been cleared of an injury designation despite being limited in practices all week, and with fellow wideout Jarvis Landry on IR, there will be targets available for Beckham to have a monumental return to the Browns home stadium. The Browns play Justin Fields and the Bears Sunday in the rookie's first career start, and if the Browns supreme pass rush can disrupt the young quarterback's rhythm, the Cleveland offense might not need to throw the ball enough for Beckham to have fantasy relevancy coming off a serious injury.
Trey Sermon
The rookie is trending to be the lead back in San Francisco Sunday against the Packers, but he clearly wasn't deemed ready by the staff for week one and is now forced onto the field by the injuries that have decimated the running back room. Elijiah Mitchell turned in decent floor performances in his showings, but to expect more than that from Sermon in his first NFL start is risky business.
The Risk List
Will Fuller V
Fuller is back on the field after a suspension and a personal matter over the first two weeks of the season. The Dolphins have Jacoby Brissett at QB for the injured Tua, which means we can expect deep balls, check downs to tight ends, and lots and lots of running the ball. If Fuller can grab one of the deep balls he has true fantasy relevancy this week, but otherwise Waddle seems to be the other player who will see volume from Brissett along with Gesicki and perhaps even RB Malcolm Brown in deeper PPR formats.
Alexander Mattison
Mattison can only be a fantasy start if Cook actually doesn't play. But if Cook plays and gets limited or actually injured and pulled, Mattison could be a decent play in a guillotine format, deeper leagues, or if you really need a Hail Mary.
Matt Stafford
Stafford has been very productive against multiple levels of competition but the Tampa defense is getting settled back in and the Rams run game will most likely be negated. When Stafford is forced to throw the ball more than the Rams would like, the Tampa defense is primed to take advantage of that. Look for Tampa to take away Cooper Kupp, and that will affect Stafford's stats as well. As a fringe fantasy starter, if you have someone else on your bench at QB that isn't playing the Bucs, maybe take a look there.
JD McKissic
McKissic had a great game against the Giants in week two, becoming backup QB Taylor Heinicke's safety blanket underneath while McLaurin opened top the top coverage. McKissic has huge upside as a pass catching back, with most targets (110) to a running back in 2020 other than Alvin Kamara. Against Buffalo, the shifty back has a tough matchup where he could be removed from the gameplay by the dominating Bills defense, or he could be the benefactor much like week 2, where he bails out Heinicke from broken situations. It's a little risky though.
Jamal Williams
Williams has a lot of value concerning his usage in the Detroit offense, and I expect that to continue all year but against the Ravens defense, things haven't looked good for RB2s they face. That could change if Goff mounts a more successful comeback this Sunday than the Lions did last week, and Williams gets the opportunities to have big days even against the Ravens. Relying on it, however, is risky business.
Cordarrelle Patterson
Patterson has been used as a change of pace back for Mike Davis but has seen most of his fantasy production come through the air. Week one he almost saw double digits without scoring, and week two he had the same carries but caught 5/7 balls for 58 yards a touchdown. With guys like Patterson, the home run play ability is always there, but unless he scores, the 5-8 point floor is very real...and a little risky.
Henry Ruggs III
Ruggs finally blew the top off of one and hauled in a huge 61-yard touchdown, adding to a big day and a big win for the Raiders. The week before however, he didn't catch a few of those deep targets, and had a 4 point outing. He still had a 37-yarder week one, meaning he can turn on the jets whenever, but the reliability of it historically is low. This week the Raiders play the slumping Miami Dolphins, and if the run game accomplishes what the Raiders need for a win, the bombs to Ruggs might not be necessary.
Albert Okwuegbunam
The Denver second year tight end has seen a high number of targets for a TE2 and has pretty good touchdown upside against the Jets at Mile High. I guess it depends how thirsty you are for a tight end.
Christian Kirk
Kirk always has home run ability, as we saw in week one, but can also get lost in the shuffle. Rookie Rondale Moore is seeing a more consistent target share, especially in the red zone, but with DeAndre Hopkins questionable with a rib injury Kirk could see a lot of action if Hopkins were to sit the game out. Expect it to be announced 90 minutes before kickoff so be prepared to make the call.
Tony Pollard
Pollard had a great week two, sharing the backfield with Zeke Elliott and benefiting from a game script that largely forced Dallas to use both their backs to move the ball against a tough Chargers secondary. Pollard's production will largely be situational, which means he is very unreliable as a flex play.
Adam Thielen
The lack of viable tight end talent has shown in Theilen's target share over the first few weeks, although KJ Osborn took the yardage reins last week and while Thielen did score another touchdown...he also fumbled, bringing his fantasy totals to 9.9 half PPR points. Without the score, and Thielen won't score a touchdown every week, it was a sub-4 point outing. So with Thielen you are always hoping for one or two touchdowns, or he is a super risky play.
Cole Kmet
Kmet hasn't been the sleeper we were hoping, but the Bears offense hasn't been what we were hoping. Or maybe it is? We don't know yet, we haven't seen it. With the beginning of the Justin Fields era in Chicago Sunday, perhaps we will see Kmet be utilized by the young QB more than the veteran Dalton felt the need to. If Fields/Kmet can form a Lamar/Andrews type bond, Kmet could be a steal in the desolate tight end landscape. He could also get one target like last week.
Jamar Chase
Much like Thielen, Chase has scored in both of his games so far and without that his production would be a lot more pedestrian. We can't expect the rookie receiver to score every week, and even with Tee Higgins looking doubtful for Sunday's matchup against Pittsburgh, the Steelers have a tough defense that is prime for taking advantage of a young offense's mistakes. While Chase does have high upside as the best healthy receiver on the field, that might not mean much against Pittsburgh and expecting him to put up week-altering numbers is pretty risky.
Kenneth Gainwell
Gainwell has been one of my sleeper targets for months, and seeing him get the expected usage in the Philly committee is very reassuring. He has been given opportunities in the red zone and pretty much all facets of the game alongside Miles Sanders, and in a matchup with Dallas that looks to be high-scoring, Gainwell could certainly see enough action to warrant a flex in a tight spot. Without touchdowns or a higher volume of receptions, he has a very risky floor.
Austin Hooper
Hooper finds himself once again on a team that just doesn't throw touchdowns to tight ends. With only eight targets through two games, he has been sharing what little passing there is with fellow tight end David Njoku and the various wideouts. With Jarvis Landry out this week, and OBJ coming back, Hooper could be the beneficiary of being a familiar target for Mayfield while the veteran Landry is gone. Hooper is a potential double-digit tight end if he scores, and the Browns will look to put on a show for their home crowd. Hooper has high upside, and his floor is about as risky as anyone else you could just plug and play from the waivers.
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