As the fantasy season winds down, let's take a look at how our Ball 'Em/Bench 'Em predictions have worked out over 12 weeks of football.
This year has been one for the books. I have been playing fantasy football for a long time, almost 20 years now. There are always injuries, there are always bye weeks, but this year was different. CoVid-19 protocols added a whole new aspect to injury reports, and the effect the pandemic has had on practice for NFL players (and college athletes about to enter the NFL) is evident in the massive increase of injuries we see.
With the NFL going to a 17-game season this year, this complicated byes, causing them to extend two extra weeks meaning the final bye week (week 14) is also the final regular season fantasy game. The NFL changed their IR rules, allowing teams to place injured players on IR for just three weeks, meaning a lot more guys went on IR this season. Many leagues expanded their IR slots to compensate for the added protocols, and this led to pretty thin waivers as the injured stars were securely rostered rather than floating around on waivers til they were ready to play again.
Perhaps the most glaring anomaly of the 2021 season is the injuries. As I said before, injuries always happen, it's a part of football. However, let's not pretend this is a normal year. Take a look at the running backs. Out of the consensus top 36 RBs drafted in fantasy this season, 7 of the top 12 have missed significant time (2+ games), 7 of the #13-24 ranked players have missed significant time, and 7 of the #25-36 RBs have missed significant time. That's 21 of the original top 36 RBs who have missed at least two games, and that doesn't even include the current top 36 RB list where you have guys like Elijah Mitchell, Michael Carter, and Cordarrelle Patterson missing time. The Baltimore Ravens lost both of their starting running backs...in training camp.
Quarterbacks
Hit Rate: 61%
On average I only put 4-5 QBs on the start/sit or sleeper list each week, mainly because the position is so solidified for 80% of fantasy teams. QB recommendations are basically for bye weeks and the teams who stream QBs because theirs was hurt. Since there aren't as many of them, and I only sift through the bench/waiver level options, my hit rate hasn't been as good as I would like in this department.
Running Backs
Hit Rate: 72%
The running back position has been the most complicated by far, since the pool to choose from has been narrow. This is good when it comes to certain situations, it was easy to predict Mark Ingram was a solid play in the absence of Alvin Kamara, but figuring out which Philly back would replace Miles Sanders was a little more treacherous. Throughout the season, our RB "Ball "Em" predictions have been much better than our "Bench" suggestions, so moving forward that will be a point of emphasis for improvement.
Wide Receivers
Hit Rate: 78%
Wide receivers have always been one of my strong points. In fact it might be part of the reason I decided to start publishing fantasy advice. Years ago it seemed I would target a few fantasy sleepers in the mid/late rounds, and they would end up being the catalyst for a championship run. This year, actually quantifying it is a little humbling, as a 78% hit rate doesn't sound super impressive. It's hard to find solid hit rates for the big-name fantasy analysts, probably because they are wrong more than they would like to admit. Along with some help from some Reddit users, I dug back through Matthew Berry from ESPN and Adam Rank from NFL.com, and for wideouts Berry has a 58% hit rate in 2021, while Rank is at 62%. So in comparison, we are doing pretty good. Those are slightly unfair comparisons, because there are much better fantasy analysts out there than those two, but they are the most widely read.
Tight Ends
Hit Rate: 68%
Tight ends have been the most up and down for us here at the SportsLeaf. Part of it is the same conundrum we face with QBs, we simply don't suggest as many and the pool to choose from is limited. I tried to choose tight ends that you would realistically have a shot at acquiring or possibly already had rostered, and that backfired on more than one occasion as the position is typically low scoring as it is. The biggest fault at this position was swinging for the fences too often on low-ranked tight ends who merely had good matchups. The bright spot is point differential, as many of the misses we had didn't really score that much less than their counterparts, and when tight ends did go off (Pat Freiermuth in week 9, Dawson Knox week 5, CJ Uzomah week 7) we had them on the Ball 'Em list. I also told people to sit Gronkowski week 1, so I don't know. There is some work to do here.
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