Since the first mock...there were trades. And then some more trades. College Pro Days. Endless rumors. Things are shaping up to be an exciting draft with speculation abounding from the first pick all the way down the 32nd. By my estimation, picks #7, #8 and #10 are still trying to trade down, so if we do see New Orleans or Pittsburgh jump into the top 10, it will likely be with either the Giants, Atlanta, or the Jets.
1. Jaguars: Evan Neal
-Offensive Tackle, Alabama
Could the Jags take a generational pass rusher here? It's still a possibility, but Jacksonville has invested in their defensive line with three first rounders in the last four drafts. In 2021 they made the ultimate investment in Trevor Lawrence and Travis Ettienne, so rather than pad their defense again the Jags opt for another generational piece, this time on offense. Neal is the best tackle prospect of the class, coming from Alabama where he allowed only 24 pressures in two seasons against the toughest pass rushers in college football. Neal is a monster at 6' 7" and 350lbs yet has a quickness on his feet you generally see in much smaller men. In drafting Neal the Jags have a perennial Pro-Bowler locked in for the better part of the next decade to grow with their developing young quarterback.
2. Lions: Aidan Hutchinson
-Defensive End, Michigan
The Lions are zeroing in on Travon Walker as their prospect of choice, but much of that is assuming Jacksonville is drafting Hutchinson. If the Jags opt to go offensive line, Detroit won't be able to pass up on the Michigan defensive end who was the PFF's highest-graded player (not edge...overall player) in 2021. At 6' 6" and 265lbs, "Hutch" has the length to create leverage against the thickest of tackles, and his 4.7 speed is lethal for a man of that size. Detroit gets a steal if Hutchinson falls to #2.
3. Texans: Travon Walker
-Defensive End, Georgia
Travon Walker was all over boards until he destroyed the NFL Combine last month, running a 4.5 40 yard dash as a 6' 5" 275lb man. Walker was a leader on the crowded Georgia defense that played for a National Championship a few months ago, and despite needing some development in the pass rush area (9.5 sacks in 3 seasons) his size and speed combo isn't something you see often. Detroit loves Walker's potential, but in the scenario where Jacksonville takes a tackle, I don't see them selecting Walker over Hutchinson. Houston gets the opportunity to secure a defensive cornerstone of their future with the explosive Georgia product.
4. NY Jets: Kayvon Thibodeaux
-Defensive End, Oregon
Kayvon Thibodeaux is "shocked" that he isn't considered the best player in the 2022 draft. He has a certain type of mindset that NFL teams like, and if you listen to his interviews he fully expects to be the first overall pick. Thibodeaux has the size and speed to have an immediate impact wherever he is drafted, and despite seeing a lot of Sauce Garner mocked here, New York knows Thibodeaux is the last of the elite pass rushers in this draft and they can't afford to pass him up here.
5. NY Giants: Ikem Ikwonu
-Offensive Tackle, NC State
"Ickey" Ikwonu is quickly becoming a household name, with some analysts projecting him as high as #1 to Jacksonville after he lit up the Senior Bowl. "A gentleman in class and a killer on the grass" according to NFL.com's Lance Zierlein, Ikwonu checks all the boxes you need from an elite college tackle. At 6' 4" and 320lbs, yet still sub-5.0 in the 40 department, he has lateral speed and footwork to keep the staunchest pass rushers at bay. The Giants are in dire need of better production from their offensive line, and with Daniel Jones, Saquan Barkley, and Kenny Golladay still the foundation of their offense, Ikwonu provides an immediate starter who can fill the right tackle role. Could the Giants take a pass rusher or defensive back here? Possibly, but if Ikwonu falls to #5 he likely is the Giant's best player on the board and they will be hard pressed to let him slip by.
6. Panthers: Charles Cross
-Offensive Tackle, Ole Miss
The Panthers have penciled in a quarterback here all off-season, generally Kenny Pickett but head coach Matt Rhule has shown increased interest in Malik Willis of late. Ultimately the front office will likely cool on taking a flawed quarterback this high with so many other holes to fill roster-wide. We also can’t forget the Panthers coaching staff needs to put together some sort of a winning season if they wish to retain their jobs past mid-season, and tossing developing signal-callers to the wolves generally gets you fired. Carolina still has Christian McCaffrey on the the roster, and Charles Cross is perhaps the most starter-ready pass-blocking tackle in the class. Carolina's offensive strength lies in the short-pass game, and Cross will have an immediate impact providing protection for whoever Carolina rolls out to dump the ball off to McCaffrey.
7. Giants: Kyle Hamilton
-S, Notre Dame
Everyone and no one is talking about Kyle Hamilton's disappointing NFL Combine numbers in March. For the highest-graded safety coming out of college in over a decade, projected as high as the second or third overall selection...he ran a 4.74 40 yard dash and underwhelmed teams and fans alike. Analysts are quick to look at his tape from Notre Dame, and they aren't wrong when they say he "plays faster than a 4.7", but it is certainly enough to make the star slip out of the top 5. New York is in a prime position to trade down here, but if they can't find a suitor they have plenty of roster needs to fill. Many expect the Giants to take an edge rusher here but with the elite three gone, New York addresses the fact that they only have two safeties on their roster (with neither of them being very good) and selects the dynamic Notre Dame product as a cornerstone of their defense moving forward.
8. Falcons: Garrett Wilson
-WR, Ohio State
Atlanta is still in the market to trade down should they find a suitor, but with New Orleans moving up ahead of them and taking the quarterback they likely had their sights on in Ridder, the Falcons address another huge area of need: wide receiver. Atlanta traded their veteran Julio Jones last year and amid a host of issues keeping young star Calvin Ridley off the field, Kyle Pitts is it. They have their pick of the litter in 2022, and while Wilson is my WR3 in this class there is sizeable momentum behind the rumors that Atlanta loves the Ohio State product. Wilson gives the Falcons a weapon for new quarterback Marcus Mariota and a base for an offense when they bring on the quarterback of the future eventually.
9. Seahawks: Derek Stingley Jr
-CB, LSU
Seattle is in full rebuild mode after trading Russell Wilson to Denver (this used to be Denver's pick), and while they could draft Malik Willis here...there are rumors they have other plans for the position. After releasing veteran Bobby Wagner, the Seahawks defense has Jamal Adams and that's about it. Could they go edge? Certainly, but at this point in the draft the elite edge rushers have been snapped up and what's left is the elite defensive backs. Derek Stingley Jr is the PFF 3rd overall ranked player in this class and although he has fallen a little in mocks lately, it has less to do with him and more to do with the teams selecting in the top ten and their positions of greatest need. He won't fall past #9 however, as Seattle takes the best player remaining on the board and the future of their pass defense.
10. NY Jets: Ahmad Gardner
-CB, Cincinnati
Could we flip-flop #4 and #10 and get the same results for New York? Possibly, and there have been rumors galore about New York taking Cincinatti's "Sauce" Gardner with the fourth overall selection. In the end, they are forced to take the last elite-graded pass rusher with the higher pick as he wouldn't make it down to #10, while it's all but guaranteed that one of the elite-graded defensive backs will. Stingley Jr carries the higher grade of the two and has also garnered more interest from Seattle's staff as of late, but New York has been smitten with Gardner since his stellar combine performance, and having him fall to their second pick in the first round is a home run for the Jets.
11. Commanders: Drake London
-WR, USC
Washington has a lot of needs and if they don't get one of the top receivers or defensive backs, their fan base will not be happy. They are in the market for a quarterback here, but all scuttlebutt points to them hoping one of these guys falls to the second round (Ridder). In this scenario the three elite DBs are off the board by pick #11 and the Commanders opt for London, the SportsLeaf highest-graded WR in the class. London will pair well opposite Terry McLaurin and should give Washington a weapon for whoever their QB of the future is.
12. Vikings: Andrew Booth, Jr
-CB, Clemson
The Vikings have been loving these mock drafts that have Derek Stingley Jr falling right to them, but that's not going to happen. Rather they address the position with the smooth Booth out of Clemson, who will slide right into the new Donatell defense with veterans Patrick Peterson and Harrison Smith.
13. Steelers: Malik Willis
-QB, Liberty (TRADE w/ HOU)
The Steelers can't afford to wait and see who New Orleans takes, or if Carolina is going to move back and still try to get Willis...Pittsburgh wants mobility under center and Willis is the most mobile in the class. He needs some development, and didn't play the toughest competition in college so the beginning of his NFL career will be a lot of learning behind Mitch Trubiskey.
14. Ravens: Devonte Wyatt
-DT, Georgia
In this mock we have Jermaine Johnson II sliding out of the top ten, and the Ravens are a prime candidate to snag the tumbling edge rusher. Wyatt however is a phenom, a high motor guy with size and speed who can create pressure on the quarterback from the interior of the offensive line (think Aaron Donald). The Ravens are also a prime candidate to trade into the top ten if they feel the need to secure an elite defensive back like Hamilton or Stingley Jr.
15. Eagles: George Karlaftis
-DE, Purdue
The Eagles have a lot of needs, and drafting the big Purdue defensive end will solve several of them at once. Karlaftis is a large stable-footed man with long arms who can slide out to limit outside runs while still having the brute strength to hold his own against the targets tackles in the league. Karlaftis has slid a bit in the eyes of many analysts during the pre-draft process, but in this case we see Philadelphia stick to their grades and take him over the still-sliding Jermaine Johnson II.
16. Saints: Desmond Ridder
-QB, Cincinnati
The Saints made a draft-capital trade with Philadelphia last month, giving New Orleans two first round picks. It only makes sense that they intend to package those picks and move up into the top ten, but if their plan is to draft a quarterback this year they likely would be overspending. In this scenario the Saints target is 2-time AAC Offensive Player of the Year Desmond Ridder, the quarterback who led the upstart Bearcats to the College Football Playoff last season and broke a host of school records along the way. Ridder is the most pro-ready signal caller in the class and has the luxury of developing behind Jameis Winston for a season before taking the reins.
17. Chargers: Trevor Penning
-OT, N. Iowa
The Chargers are gunning for another elite lineman to protect their star quarterback and Northern Iowa's Trevor Penning is a sneaky good pick at #17. The Chargers are likely in the market to package some picks and move into the top ten (perhaps with Carolina) if someone like Charles Cross were to fall.
18. Eagles: Trent McDuffie
-CB, Washington
The Eagles need a lot of help on the defense. They grab a stout edge rusher with their earlier pick but need to address their pass defense, and although undersized, McDuffie represents the new normal at the position: smaller, shifty, with elite ball skills that see him drawing Tyrann Mathieu comparisons.
19. Saints: Jameson Williams
-WR, Alabama
If the Saints made the Eagles trade without looking to take a QB, this could all go south quickly but indications are that they would like to lock up one of the elite receivers regardless of the intent with the other first rounder. Alabama's Jameson Williams is the WR1 for many draft analysts, and while he is rehabbing an ACL injury suffered in the National Championship game he has drawn comparisons to a "tall Tyreek Hill". Williams will be a staple of the offense for years to come as they enter the next era in New Orleans.
20. Houston: Devin Lloyd
-LB, Utah (TRADE w/Pittsburgh)
Houston trades back with Pittsburgh and still grabs their defensive target in Lloyd, adding the best interior linebacker of the class to the Travon Walker selection at #3. Lloyd is a triple threat who can cover big tight ends, stuff gaps in the run game, and even get after the quarterback as a pass rusher. Did Houston just grab their Micah Parsons? Yep.
21. Patriots: Kaiir Elam
-DB, Florida
The Patriots have had their sights set on Devin Lloyd but Houston snags him a pick earlier after a trade with Pittsburgh in this scenario. New England has needs on the offensive line, and could take linebacker Nakobe Dean here in the absence of Lloyd on the board, but I feel the Patriots saw Stephon Gilmore and JC Jackson depart and they will attempt to fill that gap with the 21st pick. Elam is a rangey defensive back with experience at both corner and safety, and fits the hard-nosed Patriot way based on his tape from Florida.
22. Packers: Chris Olave
-WR, Ohio State
The Packers lost their top two receivers (with Adams being slightly harder to replace than MVS), so it's natural to assume they will take advantage of this crowded class of talented receivers. Olave may even be Green Bay's highest graded receiver according to some scout rumors, so getting Aaron Rodgers an explosive target will be paramount to keeping the newly-secured star happy.
23. Cardinals: Jermaine Johnson II
-DE, Florida State
The slide stops here. Johnson II was named the ACC Defensive Player of the Year in 2021 and followed it up with a game-wrecking performance at the Senior Bowl. The last prospect to rise is often the first one to fall on draft day, but the Cardinals won't let him pass by and they get a steal of a prospect to put opposite JJ Watt, and eventually replace him.
24. Cowboys: Tyler Smith
-OT, Tulsa
The Cowboys didn't seem comfortable releasing La'el Collins, for all the missed time due to injury and suspension the young tackle was extremely productive when on the field. In his absence the 'Boys pass on a few other positions of need and grab one of the most underrated lineman in the class with Tyler Smith. Smith is a bruiser with a few question marks, but look for him to impress in camp and be a day-one contributor protecting Dak Prescott.
25. Bills: Breece Hall
-RB, Iowa State
Okay maybe a little bit of a surprise here, but considering the production Buffalo squeezed out of Devin Singletary at times last year, imagine what they could do with a real A-list running back. Buffalo needs to take a little bit of the stress off Josh Allen, especially if they want to keep him healthy. Hall provides the Bills with an every-down back that allows them to showcase the full potential of their offense.
26. Titans: Bernhard Raimann
-OL, Central Michigan
I'm not in love with this pick, but I feel the Titans might be. Raimann is Austrian and was playing tight end until a few years ago. He comes from a small school where being undersized didn't matter so much, but nevertheless he excelled at a far quicker rate than many expected and he found himself on the radar of pro scouts. A solid pro day and combine helped solidify his draft status, and at this point it is realistic to see him go at the end of the first round to a team like Tennessee willing to gamble a little.
27. Tampa Bay: Jordan Davis
-DT, Georgia
I still think the Bucs might trade out of the first round to stack picks, but if they stay they have a host of gaps to fill and several highly-graded prospects will still be available. One of those is Georgia's massive defensive tackle, the type of hulking presence in the interior that will make Bucs fans go "Ndamukong Who?"
28. Packers: Zion Johnson
-OT, Boston College
The Packers don't have much of a choice here. The defense is reasonably stacked despite losing Za'Darius Smith. There are plenty of receivers to be combed through in the mid-rounds, and the best pass rushers are off the board. Green Bay lost their right tackle to Denver this off-season, so replacing the protection for Aaron Rodgers will be a top priority with their remaining first round selection. Johnson can play guard or tackle and has been winning over NFL front offices throughout the combine and pre-draft process.
29. Chiefs: Daxton Hill
-S, Michigan
The Chiefs have a list of guys they will trade up for using these back-to-back picks, if those prospects fall far enough to attain. If that doesn't happen, the Chiefs are in a nice position to fill some roster gaps. Receiver makes a lot of sense here, but with the top guys off the board KC will have opportunities to address that in later rounds. Hill is a highly-graded prospect that can solidify the Chiefs air defense in the absence of Tyrann Mathieu.
30. Chiefs: Boye Mafe
-DE, Minnesota
The big Minnesota defensive lineman will fit perfectly in the Kansas scheme beside Frank Clark and Chris Jones. Many feel the Clark contract isn't doing the Chiefs any favors, and if he were to depart the team after 2022 Mafe should have the experience to be a leader on the team that profiles to be in the playoffs a lot over the next decade.
31. Bengals: Tyler Linderbaum
-C, Iowa
It might be foolish to think Linderbaum will fall this far, as he has graded as one of the best lineman in the class...he just plays center. Teams don't like drafting centers in the first round. Linderbaum is an absolute road grader with quick feet and a commanding presence who fills the only real gap on the Cincinnati offense, the interior line.
32. Seahawks: Matt Corral
-QB, Ole Miss (TRADE w/ Lions)
Someone is going to do it, and while a lot of people are actually mocking Detroit to draft Corral here, Seattle has been closing in on the Ole Miss Rebel as of late. Seattle has the 40th and 41st overall picks, and easily can package those for a move back into the first to secure Corral and the fifth year option that comes with taking a player in the first round.
Stay tuned for the SportsLeaf Mock #3, which will be released the week of the NFL Draft.
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