Is it time to cut bait on the highly rated wide receiver?
Ever since he came out of Ole Miss, where he was the more productive receiver opposite DK Metcalf, I have had insanely high grades on AJ Brown. He has the speed, quickness, and explosive ability to be one of the league's elite. In 2020, the powerful rushing attack opened up the field for Brown, and a mid-career comeback from Ryan Tannehill gave the young man a reliable quarterback feeding him the ball while he shredded man coverage.
In the 2021 offseason the Titans lost some talent but replaced it with high profile free agents Bud Dupree on the defensive side, and future Hall candidate wide receiver Julio Jones on the offense. The addition of Jones created a scenario where defenses could no longer focus solely on Brown, and the attention given to the veteran profiled to mean weaker coverage on the shifty young wideout. A Chris Carter/Randy Moss situation perhaps.
Rather than that transpiring, however, something else has happened. After 4 catches on 8 targets and a touchdown week one (that saw the Titans dismantled by the Arizona Cardinals), Brown managed just 3 catches on 9 targets against the Seahawks in a game that saw Tennessee abandon whatever plans they had of being a passing team, and went back to letting Derrick Henry carry them.
Brown suffered a hamstring injury the following week against the Colts, causing him to also miss week 4 against the Jets. He returned week 5 catching 3 balls on 6 targets against the Jaguars for a paltry 38 yards.
The encouraging thing about AJ Brown as we enter week 6 is his target share. In the full games he has played, he has had a 36%, 39%, and 28% target share, respectively. That's really really high.
The downside is what he has done with those targets, managing just 10 catches on 25 opportunities, and has yet to break 50 yards in a game. The Titans also reverted to their heavy rush attack after injuries to both Brown and Jones limited their passing options, and that rush attack largely has been working, which doesn't bode well for volume opportunities as far as the wideouts go.
AJ Brown is not on my cut list just yet. His high target share, even on an offense that is second to last in passing attempts, makes him an important bench player as we enter the bye weeks and the undoubted injuries that pile up at this point in the season.
There are so many productive wide receivers this year, Brown doesn't really have trade value, but he does have bench value compared to a waiver player when subbing out your stars who are on bye.
If he continues being touchdown dependent for fantasy relevancy, he will be a cut candidate once the meat of your lineup has survived the byes, but he does offer a consistent floor considering he is the WR1 on his team, compared to say subbing in Quez Watkins or someone else you found.
If you drop AJ Brown, someone will pick him up, so keep him rostered and use him to help you weather the bye weeks. He also could finally see a breakout game coming up, although week 6 against the Bills probably isn't going to be it.
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