It's never too early to be wrong.
After 6 weeks of football, we have enough info on each division to shake out who likely will be in division contention, and who will not. The fringe division teams are likely the wildcard teams, and the teams with only one or two wins look to need a surge in order to get back in it.
Below we project our division winners and the six teams that will vie for the three remaining wildcard spots (probably).
AFC Division Winners
AFC East-Buffalo
AFC North-Baltimore
AFC South-Tennessee
AFC West-LA Chargers
AFC WildCard Contention
Kansas City
Cleveland
Cincinnati
Las Vegas
New England
Pittsburgh
The AFC has been filled with high profile matchups that have seen good teams eating good teams on the schedule.
Buffalo and Tennessee play in weak divisions that won't give them much competition for the title.
The Chargers and Chiefs may flip-flop on who take the top and who gets a wild card, but both teams will be in the playoffs.
Baltimore has a decent division but has pulled off victories against some of the best teams in the league recently, indicating they should't have an issue retaining the top spot through the rest of the season.
The wildcards feature some teams who could break the barrier down the stretch if things roll their way. Currently the Cleveland Browns are experiencing some huge injury issues, and Kansas City has struggled even against weaker opponents. These things will change and I still expect both teams to be firmly in the postseason rankings.
Cincinnati has been a real surprise, pulling off a few improbable victories and lighting up stat sheets along the way with a young offense and workable depth, bailing them out of some early season injury woes. These guys were my playoff dark horse and they are living up to the hype.
Las Vegas, New England, and Pittsburgh have each boomed and busted so far this year, but managed to display enough in both wins and losses to see the potential these rosters have. You can never count out Big Ben, and the expert coaching in New England has eeked every ounce of talent from that roster week in and week out.
Las Vegas has surprised with their passing efficiency and ability to play up to competition, although they likely will need a drop-off from Cleveland/Cincinnati/etc in order to secure a wildcard spot due to their remaining strength of schedule.
NFC Division Winners
NFC East-Dallas
NFC North-Green Bay
NFC South-Tampa Bay
NFC West-Arizona
NFC Wildcard Contention
LA Rams
Carolina
Minnesota
New Orleans
San Francisco
Seattle
The NFC is the weaker conference this year by far, although it is not without its powerhouses.
Dallas and Tampa have lived up to expectations and are lighting up the scoreboards. Green Bay overcame some early struggles and looks to have a clear path to the division title the rest of the way.
Arizona has been a huge surprise to some, and while that division race will be epic, if AZ doesn't win it they still are a playoff lock as a wildcard.
The wildcard race is much less clear in the NFC. The Rams/Cards battle will result in the losing team likely being the highest seeded wildcard.
Carolina and Minnesota have both looked amazing, and cringeworthy, at different moments of the year. Injuries to both team's star running backs was a stick-in-the-spokes to their momentum, yet they remain competitive enough to make a wildcard run if their backfields can stay healthy down the stretch.
Seattle is, for me, a virtual wildcard lock if they can dominate their out-of-division opponents once Russell Wilson returns from IR. With Geno Smith and a fourth string running back they almost beat a healthy Pittsburgh team on the road. These guys still got it.
New Orleans and San Francisco are the real conundrums here, as their seasons have been a roller coaster of highs and lows. New Orleans has the defense to compete, and if they can establish more consistency on offense once Michael Thomas returns, they have a clear path to the playoffs.
San Francisco has the roster to be one of the best teams in the NFL, but injuries and a little rustiness at the QB position have led to a disappointing 2-4 start. The 49ers play in arguably the toughest division in football however, so future matchups with the Cards and Rams (along with AFC matchups against Cincy and the Titans) will decide if they are a true contender or not.
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