There are nearly 40 starters from 2021 with expired contracts who are seeking a new payday. Will it be with their home team, or are some of these flashy free agents destined to wear a different uniform in 2022?
1. Davante Adams, WR
Davante Adams has made himself a part of the Aaron Rodgers drama in Green Bay, exhibiting a desire to follow his quarterback to a new team in a group deal. The issue being, Rodgers is still under contract and Adams is not, and any team absorbing the $46 million Rodgers is due in 2022 would be hard pressed to pony up north of $20 million/year to sign Adams on top.
That being the situation, the industry expectation is for Green Bay to place the franchise tag on Adams after trading Rodgers. Despite being $51 million over the salary cap, the Packers can free up the money necessary to tag their wideout with a few contract restructures. Green Bay has the 6th-most cap space in 2023, giving them the ability to back-weight some contracts and potentially clear up nearly $90 million in cap space this off-season if they choose.
If the Packers do decide to let Adams walk in free agency, there is one team that jumps out as a perfect fit for the receiving star: Las Vegas. Davante Adams played with Raiders QB Derek Carr in college, racking up 3031 yards and 38 touchdowns in their two seasons together at Fresno State. Previously we floated the idea of Aaron Rodgers to Las Vegas in a trade that sent Derek Carr to Green Bay, and if that scenario were to hit, it would be a big win for Adams and Green Bay.
SportsLeaf Top 3 Landing Spots:
Green Bay (tagged)
Las Vegas
Jacksonville
Pittsburgh
2. Chandler Jones, EDGE
At 31 years old Chandler Jones may be entering the twilight of his career, but a career verging on Hall-of-Fame production since being selected by New England in the first round of the 2012 NFL Draft. In 2016 the Patriots traded Jones to Arizona, where he led the league in sacks and tackles for loss in 2017 and received first team All-Pro honors twice (2017 and 2019).
After missing 11 games in 2020, Jones played 15 games in 2021 and accrued 10.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss and 26 QB hits. Enough for a Pro Bowl selection and enough to guarantee him top pass rusher money once again in his career.
Who would want to pay an aging edge rusher top dollar, you ask? Answer: teams that can’t attract younger, more explosive free agents. I expect the Jets and Jaguars to make Jones the highest offers, but after some research we have a more enticing outcome: Indianapolis. Indy could offer Jones a large contract, maybe not as large as New York, but the prospect of joining a team poised to make a super bowl run might sound better for Jones’ legacy than quietly fading into obscurity for a rebuilding franchise.
SportsLeaf Top Landing Spots
Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Miami
New York Jets
3. Terron Armstead, OT
Armstead is a causality of the New Orleans cap situation, and the best offensive tackle on the market currently. His production expectedly dipped a little without Drew Brees, but the Saints line was the least of the team’s woes in 2021.
At 30 years old Armstead is primed for one more long-term deal worth top dollar, and there are plenty of tackle-thirsty franchises waiting to throw their checkbooks at him. I think a team parched at the position, who saw what little favors they did their developing rookie quarterback by not protecting him, is Jacksonville. They have the salary cap and the need to spend big on Armstead, allowing them to pass on prospect Evan Neal with the first overall pick and use the top of the draft to take one of the game-changing pass rushers available.
The other sneaky prospect for the best available offensive tackle is…Denver. If new head coach Nathaniel Hackett is successful in making his old quarterback a Bronco, the current Denver offensive line situation won’t suffice against the league’s best pass rushers. Denver has a decent cap situation and could make some adjustments to create the space for an elite tackle like Armstead (especially if they unload the Courtland Sutton contract in a potential Rodgers trade).
SportsLeaf Top Landing Spots
Jacksonville
Denver
Miami
Pittsburgh
4. Chris Godwin, WR
Chris Godwin is one of the under-rated wideouts of his generation, quietly putting up solid numbers in Tampa with both Jameis Winston and Tom Brady since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2017. Godwin played under the franchise tag last season, catching a career high 98 balls for 1103 yards. His five touchdowns paled in comparison to the scores of other top receivers, but his 77% catch percentage has been top 5 the last two seasons (maybe Brady had something to do with that).
Godwin‘s skill set will command high dollar in the free agency market, but the rash of young receivers producing at top levels on rookie deals may limit the number of teams that need to spend that much on a wideout. One team that stands out as needing a star to compliment their growing offense is New England. The Patriots generally don’t spend big money on receivers but rookie Mac Jones showed the arm talent to move the ball downfield, he just needs a speedster down there to catch it.
SportsLeaf Top Landing Spots
New England
Las Vegas
Cleveland
Houston
5. JC Jackson, CB
JC Jackson has built a career in New England around intercepting the football, making up for his lack of size with supreme ball skills and a keen ability to adapt to the play in the moment. Belichiek defenses contribute to putting players in the right positions to succeed, but Jackson clearly exceeded expectations as an undrafted free agent New England snagged in 2018.
Jackson is under 30 years old and in a prime position to capitalize on being the best free agent defensive back on the market. He doesn’t profile as the type of corner who can shut down an offense's best receiver alone, but as the leader of a defensive committee he adds immeasurable value. Looking over the league, there are lots of situations where Jackson would make sense but one stands out as an obvious fit: the LA Chargers. Los Angeles has suffered disappointing eliminations the last two seasons despite excellent play from quarterback Justin Herbert, and are primed to beef up a defense that has talent but lacks depth. Adding Jackson to a squad led by safety Derwin James potentially gives LA the edge they need to win the AFC West.
SportsLeaf Top Landing Spots
LA Chargers
Pittsburgh
San Francisco
Indianapolis
6. Marcus Williams, S
Marcus Williams, like teammate Terron Armstead, will not receive an offer to stay in New Orleans amid the impending rebuild and salary cap situation. Williams has developed into one of the best safeties in the league while still under 25 years old, and likely will approach (or top) Justin Simmon's $15.1 million salary in Denver, currently the league highest for the position.
So who wants to make Williams the highest paid safety in the league? Philadelphia jumps out as a candidate with an absolute need and a unique situation presenting itself. The Eagles are losing three safeties to free agency, largely because they did not perform well enough in 2021 to want back, but they also have three first-round picks in the draft allowing them to fix multiple needs there rather than in free agency. Philadelphia is middle of the pack in cap space this offseason, giving them the ability to open the purse strings and secure their future at the position to a long-term contract. Makes sense to me.
SportsLeaf Top Landing Spots
Philadelphia
Detroit
Baltimore
Houston
7. Orlando Brown, OT
Kansas City traded several of their prime picks to Baltimore for Orlando Brown prior to the 2021 NFL Draft. Brown is set to become a free agent after just one season in KC where he performed at a high level protecting Pat Mahomes after the debacle that was Super Bowl LV. Brown has made three straight Pro Bowls playing 100% of offensive snaps in his starts and suffering just one holding penalty in each of those seasons.
Brown is only 25 years old, entering his 5th NFL season in 2022. That alone will generate a lot of buzz about the young man in the coming weeks, as young Pro Bowl offensive tackles rarely reach free agency. That may very well be the case here too, with Kansas City determined to sign their trade target to a long term deal before free agency begins. The Chiefs gave up a first and a third for Brown, which is an expensive one-year rental without securing him past that. I fully expect a deal to get done keeping Brown in Kansas City, even if it means sacrificing veteran safety Tyrann Mathieu to free agency due to cap issues.
SportsLeaf Top Landing Spots
Kansas City
Pittsburgh
Miami
Seattle
8. Randy Gregory, EDGE
Gregory has a murky history with suspensions in the NFL, missing the entirety of the 2017 and 2019 seasons for Dallas due to substance abuse policy infractions. Since his return in 2020, Gregory has stayed out of trouble and developed into the valuable pass rusher the Cowboys drafted him to be as a first-round pick in 2015.
Valuable doesn’t mean “elite” necessarily, but Gregory makes our top ten free agent list because of the unique opportunity he provides any team looking to sign him. Gregory could be looking at another one-year “prove-it“ deal. He is undergoing rehab for an offseason knee surgery, and hasn‘t performed at a high enough level to counter the risk associated with signing him to a long term deal. He could be a vital affordable addition to a number of teams across the league however, and should the Cowboys not get a deal done I expect there to be a healthy market for the 29-year-old.
A team that could use Gregory’s length as a focal point of their defense line is the Denver Broncos. Bradley Chubb hasn’t been on the field enough to justify being the second-highest pick in franchise history, and after the departure of Von Miller, Denver needs to rebuild an elite pass rushing defensive line. The possibility of getting Gregory on a short-term deal could fit into Denver's plans nicely while they hold out hope Chubb isn't a bust. Other teams with the need, and history of not minding adding risky players their roster, are listed below.
SportsLeaf Top Landing Spots
Denver
New England
Seattle
Kansas City
9. Von Miller, EDGE
Von Miller embraced his new team after the Denver Broncos shipped him midseason to LA for a second and third round pick. In true Miller fashion, he shined in the postseason and was an integral part of their Super Bowl championship, totaling two sacks (tying the all-time Super Bowl sack record of 4.5) and a pass deflection. Including the postseason, Miller lead the league in tackles for loss (19) after he joined the Rams in Week 8. Essentially Los Angeles paid handsomely for Miller, and it paid off.
Much like the Chief's situation with Orlando Brown, it was a lot of draft capital to spend on a short-term rental if the Rams don't get a long-term deal inked with Miller. If you asked Von, Los Angeles is likely where he would want to stay, and that could soften the blow to the Rams' cap. If the Rams are unable to get a deal done with Miller, there will be a variety of teams willing to pay the hefty price to add him to their roster. Miller is 32 years old, meaning this is likely to be his last large contract, and one team jumps out as a possible suitor: Houston. Von Miller is a proud Houston native, and the Texans could use a veteran elite presence as a cornerstone of their defense in his final years of effectiveness.
SportsLeaf Top Landing Spots
Los Angeles Rams
Houston
Miami
Cleveland
10. Mike Williams, WR
The Clemson wideout is entering free agency after the Chargers exercised William's fifth year option for 2021, yet aren't expected to reach a long term deal with the 7th overall pick from the 2017 draft. Injury has stunted William's young career, but when healthy he has shown flashes of greatness you would expect from someone drafted that highly. Through the first half of last season, the self-proclaimed "still not 100%" Williams was on pace for 1500+ yards and 20 touchdowns, and while that production slowed he still finished top ten in yardage and yards per catch.
Receivers have been breaking NFL budgets for years, but generally it's only the truly elite specimens like De'Andre Hopkins and the current #1 free agent Davante Adams that attract those lucrative deals. These days, having one great receiver isn't enough, and teams are paying top dollar to secure their "squad". William's injury history may give some teams pause, but the 4-year $60 million deal landed by Courtland Sutton in Denver is a good meter for what kind of money will have to be put up in order to get Williams on a long term deal somewhere.
A team that has that kind of money, and that kind of need, is the Miami Dolphins. New Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel is a young west coast-style guru fresh out of the Shanahan school in San Francisco, and the one thing a Tua-led offense is going to need is...lots of options. Adding the field-stretching Williams with his 50/50 ball skills to an offense anchored by the explosive receiver Jaylen Waddle is the kind of explosiveness required to get Miami a playoff spot in their tough division.
SportsLeaf Top Landing Spots
Miami
Chicago
Los Angeles Chargers
Kansas City
Other Notable Free Agents
Stephon Gilmore, CB
Harold Landry, Edge
Tyrann Mathieu, S
Carlton Davis, CB
Brandon Scherff, G
De'Vondre Campbell, LB
Odell Beckham Jr, WR
Jessie Bates III, S
Allen Robinson III, WR
MIke Gesicki, TE
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