The big day is finally here, and the tournament is getting under way. Here's some last minute advice to tweak your brackets.
I read (literally) hundreds of articles, poured over data from the conference tournaments, checked each team's defensive stats and strength of schedule (always important), and once again have reached conclusions that will undoubtedly have my brackets busted by this afternoon.
That being said, for what it's worth, here's my predictions for region winners, double-digit seed upsets, and the first #1 seed to get eliminated.
West
Gonzaga is the overall #1 seed entering the tournament, but they play in the West Coast Conference, giving them a CBS Sports strength of schedule rating of 58th. There's a few teams in the region that will give them a run for their money, should they meet down the road, led by the fast-playing Red Raiders out of Texas Tech.
Sweet 16:
#1 Gonzaga/#5 UConn
Upsets:
The Vermont storyline has been running rampant, and momentum has carried teams to a first round victory a lot lately. Notre Dame won the play-in game in double-OT over Rutgers Wednesday night, and displayed enough fortitude to pull off a win over Bama as long as they aren't exhausted. I have flip-flopped on these upsets, but feel like one of them is going to happen. I lean towards the Notre Dame upset.
East
Baylor was my favorite to win it all after coming back to beat Kansas in their second meeting down the stretch, but then they lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 tournament. They also lost to Texas Tech, Alabama, and the afore-mentioned Kansas over the final month of the season. Baylor retained their one seed, and stares down the barrel of the toughest region in the group.
Sweet 16:
#1 Baylor/#4 UCLA
Upsets:
#11 Va. Tech/#6 Texas
# 12 Indiana/#5 St Mary's
Virginia Tech handily beat Duke and took the ACC championship, much to the surprise of the nation. Now they are being picked to beat Texas at unnaturally high rates, and there is a good case for it.
Indiana is a strong contender to keep the #12 seed first round win streak alive, although St. Mary's is no slouch. They are one of the few teams who beat Gonzaga this season.
South
Arizona is another team that has a ton of talent and a ton of wins, but they don't play the type of talent each week to truly gauge their potential. We will find out quickly, as they find themselves facing one of the sleepers of the tourney fairly early on. Nova may meet a similar fate in the South.
Sweet 16:
Upsets:
Illinois should win this handily, but Chattanooga profiles as someone easily overlooked. Colorado State has had an electric season, but the size of a team like Michigan may give them issues. Also, Juwan Howard may fight them.
Midwest
Kansas has played at a high level with one of the hardest schedules in the NCAA all season, winning the Big 12 tournament over Texas Tech. Auburn is a strong 2 seed that could make a run, and Iowa looks to shake up the region after their dominant Big 10 championship.
Sweet 16:
#1 Kansas/#5 Iowa
#2 Aurburn/#3 Wisconsin
Upsets:
It would be nuts...NUTS...if Colgate took down Wisconsin, but if a three seed is going down day one I think it's Wisconsin. I really like Iowa this year, but Richmond won four games in four days to clinch their first tourney bid since 2011, and sometimes that kind of momentum is all it takes for an upset.
Final Four
#3 Texas Tech/#1 Baylor
Who's going to win it all?
Kansas.
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