Every year we see the top college performers plucked from their schools and thrown into the world of professional football. Regardless of where these guys are drafted, there is a fairly low hit rate on out-of-the-gate success. Factor in fantasy football, and the percentage drops even more.
You just don't see many rookies in the main fantasy position groups exceeding the production of their veteran counterparts, and there are plenty of reasons for that. Highly drafted players generally start right away, but there is a learning curve they must hurdle in order to have significance, and late round guys generally have to claw their way up the depth chart or wait for a veteran to get hurt before they can get on the field enough to matter.
Looking at the 2023 NFL Draft, we saw three quarterbacks and two running backs taken in the first twelve picks, and a run on wide receivers later in the first round, but other than that it was all defense and offensive lineman selected. The next few rounds went in similar fashion with defenders comprising a majority of the picks but also saw a fair amount of receivers, running backs, and tight ends being taken in the middle rounds. The middle rounds also saw a lot of quarterbacks being taken by teams with an impending need, but much like defensive players and offensive lineman, backup quarterbacks rarely impact the fantasy season (unless you are Brock Purdy).
Predicting which rookies will have significant fantasy impact is a little like predicting where lightning will strike next. Often the ones that have the most value are products of their situation and not necessarily when they were drafted. With that in mind, let's break down the top five rookies slated to have fantasy relevance in 2023.
Bijan Robinson, RB
Round 1, Pick 8: Atlanta Falcons
Robinson is the earliest running back drafted since Saquan Barkley in 2017. In general, backs taken with a top 10 pick in the draft tend to find themselves in offenses where they will see a lot of volume right out of the gate, and Atlanta is no exception. The Falcons will be rolling out second year QB Desmond Ridder in 2023, and with the exception of tight end Kyle Pitts, there isn't a lot of talent in the receiving room. Atlanta's road to success will be paved with lots of rushing, and if Robinson's college career is any indication, he has the frame and the durability to absorb a fair amount of abuse.
Out of all the positions in football, running back is one where the skill set transfers reasonably well from college to the pros, and that's why see rookie running backs excel to the point of leading the league in rushing (Kareem Hunt, 2017). Robinson's talent in combination with the run-heavy Atlanta offense makes him a prime candidate for Rookie of the Year honors and significant contribution to whoever's fantasy roster he ends up on.
Jahmyr Gibbs, RB
Round 1, Pick 12: Detroit Lions
Gibbs was the other early-drafted back on Day One, going just a few picks after Robinson. In 2020 Detroit drafted Georgia running back D'Andre Swift in the second round, but persistent injuries limited the electric receiving back's potential in the Motor City. In a surprising move, the Lions drafted Gibbs out of Alabama with the 12th pick and promptly traded Swift to Philadelphia, signaling the end of that experiment and the beginning of another in the Detroit backfield. Gibbs will be joining the newly acquired David Montgomery from Chicago and veteran Craig Reynolds as the core of the revamped RB room, following the departure of Swift and the 2022 rushing touchdown leader, Jamaal Williams.
For the last several years, Detroit had one of the more productive fantasy backfields with Williams and Swift, the main detractor being the lack of availability from Swift. After the shake-up this off-season, Gibbs enters a room as the 1A back in a committee that hopes to feature him as a marquee player on a productive offense. Coming from Alabama by way of Georgia Tech, Gibbs is no stranger to tough defenses and intense workloads. Slated to get plenty of snaps right out of the gate, Gibbs is a solid pick to have fantasy relevancy in 2023.
Michael Mayer, TE
Round 2, Pick 4 (35): Las Vegas Raiders
The fact I have a tight end on this list signifies several things: his talent, and his situation. In general, rookie tight ends don't have a lot of fantasy impact because they have a lot to learn about their position and how it changes from college to the pros. In college, tight ends are primarily just large wide receivers. At the NFL level, tight ends are involved in a wide variety of plays that require them to not just run routes but also be effective blockers in multiple schemes. This contributes to even the best college tight ends (Kyle Pitts springs to mind) having lackluster rookie seasons from a fantasy perspective.
So what's different about Mayer? The Notre Dame product is an exceptional route runner with contested catch ability that is off the charts. His chief role in college was catching the ball, but over his three years in South Bend his blocking ability progressed to a level where the Vegas coaching staff believes he will be a plug-and-play guy in both run and pass situations. Las Vegas let their veteran quarterback Derek Carr seek greener pastures this offseason and brought in Jimmy Garoppolo to helm the ship, a guy who is no stranger to targeting the tight end position. In New England Garoppolo had Gronk, and followed that up with a productive stint in San Francisco with George Kittle. The Raiders also lost electric tight end Darren Waller to New York, leaving a massive void at the position that Mayer is capable of filling early on.
The Raiders play in a division that has allowed a ton of yards to tight ends in recent years, and Mayer hopes to pay dividends for Las Vegas by taking advantage of the soft defenses that allowed Waller and Travis Kelce to dominate the middle of the field so effectively. Add on star receiver Davante Adams pulling defenses away from the traditional tight end routes and we have a recipe for a productive rookie season from Mayer.
Quentin Johnson, WR
Round 1, Pick 21: Los Angeles Chargers
Johnson was selected by the Chargers as part of the wide receiver run that started with Seattle taking Ohio State's Jaxson Smith-Njigba the pick previous. Some were surprised that Los Angeles chose a wideout here rather than addressing other weaknesses, considering elite veterans Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are still on the team. Both of those veterans have had their share of health issues lately, and star quarterback Justin Herbert has been left with something to be desired in the passing attack because of it.
Much like Williams, Johnson is a big-body downfield receiver with excellent tracking ability and supreme 50/50 ball skills. If all three receivers are healthy, Herbert finds himself with a receiver group much like the Bengals constructed in Cincinnati: three elite targets and if one goes down, you aren't left completely in the weeds.
Johnson makes this list for several reasons. The Chargers want to have a heavy passing attack, they have an elite arm talent in Herbert, and they have a new offensive coordinator (Kellen Moore) who is known for creative route combinations. If Allen and Williams are healthy all year, Johnson has the opportunity to feast on secondaries forced to put their weaker defensive backs on the rookie. If either Allen or Williams misses significant time, Johnson is poised to see a massive increase in target share and based on his pedigree he should be able to turn that into fantasy relevancy in 2023.
Jordan Addison, WR
Round 1, Pick 23: Minnesota Vikings
Addison is one of the highest-graded receivers coming out of college, winning the coveted Biletnikoff Award in 2021 while playing for Pitt behind a 1593-yard, 17 touchdown season. His production dipped in 2022 after transferring to USC (875 yards, 8 touchdowns), yet his total resume and supreme versatility caused the Vikings to draft him in the first round regardless. Addison split his college career between the slot and lining up outside, amassing over 1200 yards from each position during his three years at the NCAA level. This gives Minnesota a lot of options concerning what to do with Addison in their pass-happy offense.
Addison joins arguably the best receiver in the NFL, Justin Jefferson, on an offense led by veteran Kirk Cousins and second-year offensive minded head coach Kevin Connelly. Aging receiver Adam Theilen departed Minnesota after ten seasons with the team, opening up the room for a new face to start stacking the stat sheet. Unlike a lot of rookies, Addison will enter the roster as the bona-fide number two receiver opposite the talented Jefferson who demands the focus of the defense. Theilen made a career and several Pro Bowls from playing opposite mega-talents like Jefferson and Stefon Diggs, and Addison will do the same. A slow start is to be expected, but once he gets the hang of the speed of the NFL, the sky is the limit for this sure-handed wideout.
Stay tuned for more 2023 fantasy draft analysis from The Sports Leaf!
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