by Cody Oliver w/ Mark Erbacher and John Morris
A lot of guys win batting titles, MVPs, Cy Young awards...and then bounce around the stat sheet. A player must perform at very high levels for a very long time to get invited into the coveted MLB Hall of Fame, and beyond skill it requires extended availability. Many great talents have their dominance condensed to a few years due to injury, others flash and fade with the times yet all far short of anything Hall-worthy.
Let's look at some current MLB players and their chances at making the Hall after retirement. They fall into three categories: young guys with hot starts to their careers, middle-aged players in the meat of their career, and veterans on the verge of retirement. Making the Hall is not easy, and you may see some names on here you assume would be obvious choices, yet they still have a way to go.
*WAR is "Wins Above Replacement", a stat used to evaluate a player's direct contribution to their team over a AAA replacement player. It is an accumulated stat, thus the higher the number, the better your chance at the Hall. Depending on the position, a career WAR of 60-80 is good enough to get in, but the true greats are 100+.
Hot Starts
Fernando Tatis Jr, SS
Age: 23 (3 seasons) WAR: 13.6
H: 303 HR: 81 RBI: 195 BA: .292
Tatis Jr is a walking highlight reel on both sides of the ball, smacking an NL-leading 42 homers in 2021 to add to his second Silver Slugger award and first All-Star appearance. He also smashed 3 home runs in 3 at-bats to start off a game in July against Arizona. He's got style.
Ronald Acuna, Jr OF
Age: 24 (4 seasons) WAR: 14.9
H: 426 HR: 105 RBI: 246 BA: .281
Ronald Acuna Jr won Rookie of the Year in 2018 and led the majors in stolen bases and runs the following year. Acuna's season was cut short by an ACL tear in July of 2021, yet he remains on pace to hit his 300th home run in his 9th season (he would break Mike Trout's record, if he can stay healthy). Acuna is also the only player in history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in his first two seasons, displaying a rare combination of both power and speed.
Shohei Ohtani, P/DH
Age: 27 (4 seasons) WAR: 15.1
H: 370 HR: 93 RBI: 247 BA: .264
Shohei Ohtani is the most successful hitter/pitcher since Babe Ruth, winning rookie of the year in 2018 and league MVP in 2021 behind 46 homers at the plate and 156 strikeouts on the mound. He got a late start in the majors due to his Japanese baseball career, but the things he has managed in a short span of time make us think he could get Hall consideration if his dual dominance is an MLB mainstay for another decade.
Aaron Judge, OF
Age: 29 (6 seasons) WAR: 26.4
H: 571 HR: 158 RBI: 366 BA: .276
Aaron Judge was the Rookie of the Year in 2017 and since has been a 3-time All-Star, 2-time Silver Slugger, and even won the Home Run Derby. After missing time to injury over several seasons, Judge came back to form in 2021 playing in 148 games and hitting .287 with 39 homers and 98 RBIs. Judge set the rookie record for home runs with 52 back in '17 (broken by the Met's Pete Alonso two years later) and earned the nickname “Baj” (Big Aaron Judge) due to his stature and ability to drive the ball deep. Now his preferred moniker is “All Rise”, harking to the judicial roots of his last name but perhaps also foreshadowing the greatness he hopes to achieve. Judge needs to stay healthy, but his home run totals early in his career are promising when looking ahead to the Hall.
Juan Soto, OF
Age: 23 (4 seasons) WAR: 17.6
H: 485 HR: 98 RBI: 312 BA: .301
Soto recently helped the Washington Nationals to an improbable World Series victory in 2019 and broke the HR Derby long-ball record last summer in Colorado. Comparing Soto's career with others at his age, his on-base and slugging stats among others are top 10 all-time, with the likes of Ty Cobb, Ted Williams, and some of the best hitters to ever do it. Soto has 2 Silver Sluggers, a Batting Title, and an All-Star appearance to compliment his World Series championship in four short seasons. It should be noted, Soto would have been Rookie of the Year as well in 2018, if it wasn't for Ronald Acuna Jr.
All these guys have a lot to prove before we can discuss what they need to do for Hall consideration. Staying healthy will be a large factor, because they must play a lot of games in order to rank with the greats. Starting off hot is a great way to get a head start however, and we look forward to seeing what they become.
In the Hunt
Mike Trout, OF
Age: 30 (11 seasons) WAR: 76.1
H: 1419 HR: 310 RBI: 816 BA: .305
Mike Trout could never swing a bat again and be inducted into the Hall of Fame. The young man took home Rookie of the Year honors in 2012 and has compiled 3 League MVP awards, 9 All Star appearances, 8 Silver Slugger awards, and a career .305 batting average over 11 seasons, all in Los Angeles. The Angels have severely wasted the talent Trout brings to their roster but despite little postseason success, Trout's Hall bid is solid.
Mookie Betts, OF
Age: 29 (8 seasons) WAR: 50.0
H: 1152 HR: 178 RBI: 567 BA: .297
Mookie Betts exploded onto the scene in 2014, excelling in the 52 games he played and continuing the success into his second season. Betts won a World Series with the Red Sox in 2018 and then with the Dodgers the very next year, becoming one of the highest paid men in sports after LA acquired him. Betts is a league MVP winner, 5-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger, and has a batting title to go along with his 5 Gold Gloves, displaying his defensive prowess in addition to what he gets done at the plate. Mookie is still young, and the sky is the limit for what he can accomplish before his career is done, but he's sure to get the votes if he can stay healthy.
Nolan Arenado, 3B
Age: 30 (9 seasons) WAR: 44.3
H: 1357 HR: 269 RBI: 865 BA: .288
Nolan Arenado dominated baseball as the best all-around infielder for a large part of the 2010's. There is no play he can't make defensively and has won a Gold Glove each of the nine seasons he has been in the majors. He led the league in RBIs once, home runs 3 times, has 4 Silver Sluggers and 5 Platinum Glove awards along with six All-Star appearances. Arenado may get knocked if his power stats continue to slide since leaving Colorado and the altitude that comes with it, but if Nolan plays another 6 years or so at a high level and can add some postseason success finally, he should be an eventual Hall of Famer.
Bryce Harper, OF
Age: 29 (10 seasons) WAR: 40.1
H: 1273 HR: 267 RBI: 752 BA: .279
Bryce Harper has been one of baseball's golden boys since making the cover of Sports Illustrated in high school followed by winning Rookie of the Year in 2012. He took league MVP in 2015 and 2021, led the majors in homers once and doubles once, and led in slugging and OPS twice. Harper is a 6-time All-Star, 2-time Silver Slugger, and Home Run Derby champ on top of his MVP awards but looking at career milestones Harper will need to play at a high level for another ten years in order to be in serious consideration. A championship or two wouldn't hurt his case either.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF
Age: 32 (12 seasons) WAR: 44.1
H: 1299 HR: 347 RBI: 893 BA: .268
Stanton has never hit over .300, but he also has smashed 27+ home runs in every season save 4, and those due largely to health/ shortened pandemic season. He needs about 7 more seasons hitting 20+ homers and he will be in the 500 HR Club, and pretty much everyone who surpasses 500 gets into the Hall. Stanton's biggest hurdle will be Father Time, and how many healthy games per season he can muster. 2021 was a bit of a bounce-back for Stanton, and a good sign for Yankees fans who need a few more years of power out of him before he hangs up the cleats.
Manny Machado, 3B
Age: 29 (10 seasons) WAR: 45.2
H: 1425 HR: 251 RBI: 751 BA: .280
Machado is interesting because he will be forever compared to Nolan Arenado, as the two are about the same age, position, and talent. Arenado has seen more success both at the plate and defensively, but Machado has time to put in another solid 6-10 years and build some hall-worthy stats along the way if he can stay on the field. Machado is a 5-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove, with a Silver Slugger and Platinum Glove award as well.
Yadier Molina, C
Age: 39 (18 seasons) WAR: 42.1
H: 2112 HR: 171 RBI: 998 BA: .280
Molina has been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball for as long as I can remember. Two World Series victories, 9 Gold Gloves, 4 Platinum Gloves, and a Silver Slugger award compliment 10 All-Star appearances over his lengthy career. Molina's numbers are a little low when comparing him to other hall of fame catchers, but his postseason statistics and longevity numbers may squeak him in on a later ballot. Who doesn't love Yadi?
Jose Altuve, 2B
Age: 31 (11 seasons) WAR: 41.4
H: 1777 HR: 164 RBI: 639 BA: .308
Jose Altuve is mired in controversy, but the numbers can't be ignored as he has been a premier second baseman since he debuted for Houston in 2011. His career numbers are in line with other Hall members at his position, and his bid is strengthened by the fact that the best hitting infielders during his career have been third basemen and shortstops, allowing him to stand out as the best offensive second baseman in the league for the better part of a decade. His accolades are almost too numerous to list: he is a 7-time All-Star, league MVP, and 5-time Silver Slugger; he has a Gold Glove, three batting titles, 2 Minor League Player of the Year awards, and a 2017 (controversial) World Series victory on his Hall of Fame resume.
Kris Bryant, 3B
Age: 30 (7 seasons) WAR: 28.7
H: 914 HR: 167 RBI: 487 BA: .278
Kris Bryant looked like he was going to be a sure-fire Hall nominee after beginning his career with Rookie of the Year honors in 2015 followed by a league MVP award and a World Series win the very next year. Things cooled down a little after that and Bryant needs to increase both his average and power if he wants to be an elite player again. To hit the career milestones necessary, he will have to do it for another decade or more if he hopes to make the Hall and that's really dependent on health as players get older more than anything else.
Anthony Rendon, 3B
Age: 31 (9 seasons) WAR: 32.2
H: 1100 HR: 151 RBI: 611 BA: .287
Rendon is a prolific hitter who was a large part of the Washington National's World Series win in 2019. At his current rate it would be a stretch for him to get into the Hall, especially considering the third basemen he likely will be compared to during his eligibility years (Arenado, Machado, Bryant). In addition to the Series victory, Rendon is a 2-time Silver Slugger and has an All-Star appearance as well.
Jose Abreu, 1B
Age: 34 (8 seasons) WAR: 27.7
H: 1262 HR: 228 RBI: 788 BA: .290
Abreu got a super late start in the majors, but won Rookie of the Year when he debuted as a 26-year-old with 36 home runs. He will be hard-pressed to get the traditional Hall benchmarks of 3000 hits or 500 HRs, but his batting average and overall consistency could sway the voters if he sees some postseason success with this powerful White Sox team in the coming years. In addition to Rookie of the Year Abreu won league MVP in the Covid-shortened 2020 season, and is a 3-time All-Star and 3-time Silver Slugger as well.
Oh So Close...
Xander Bogaerts, OF
Freddie Freeman, 1B
Whit Merrifield, OF
Salvador Perez, C
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
These five guys have had stellar careers but likely won't have the volume to get to the Hall. Freddie Freeman just added a World Series to his list that includes a MVP award, but unless he plays another 10-12 years he won't have the hits or homers to get there.
Xander Bogaerts will fall short as well and despite having two World Series titles, his postseason performances were less than memorable.
Whit Merrifield is the modern-day Iron Man of sorts, starting every game for KC over the last three seasons and averaging .290 while doing so, and could get some Hall consideration if he continues staying healthy.
Salvador Perez has been a top catcher in the league for a decade and led the majors in home runs and RBIs in 2021, so if he can keep that sort of offensive production going for a few more seasons he could be seriously considered. Perez doesn't have the normal Hall offensive totals, but his defensive prowess along with a World Series MVP, 5 Gold Gloves, and 7 All Star appearances could sway some voters once he retires.
Paul Goldschmidt has been a stalwart first baseman for all 11 years in the majors, accumulating four Gold Gloves, four Silver Sluggers, and six All-Star nods. Depending on his career length he will fall short of 3000 hits and 500 HRs, but not by much. Goldy currently is a part of the St. Louis roster that is gearing up for a championship run so some extended postseason success always gives a boost to any Hall candidate's resume.
Pitchers
Clayton Kershaw, P
Age: 33 (14 seasons) WAR: 71.9
W-L: 185-84 ERA: 2.49 SO: 2670
Kershaw could have retired three seasons ago and still been a first ballot hall guy. He finally added a World Series to his belt, and the Astros sign-stealing scandal quieted some of his postseason critics. Kershaw was the undisputed best pitcher in baseball for half a decade and has the awards to prove it. He had the best ERA in baseball 5 times, won the league MVP award, 3 Cy Young awards, a Golden Glove, and Triple Crown. Kershaw likely will get his 200th win this season and if there was any debate about it, 200 wins makes him a shoo-in for the Hall.
Madison Bumgarner, P
Age: 32 (13 seasons) WAR: 38.2
W-L: 127-106 ERA: 3.31 SO: 1948
"Madbum" saw a 6-year stretch in the last decade that might qualify him for the Hall without pitching another inning. He never won a CY Young but was top ten in voting consistently and stacked nearly 100 wins in that 2011-2016 period. More importantly, he won 3 World Series titles in that span (along with a Series MVP) to go with 2 Silver Sluggers and four All-Star appearances. Bumgarner's win/loss record hasn't been stellar since that time, and his career stats likely won't get him to the Hall but his postseason prowess for over half a decade might.
Chris Sale
Age: 32 (11 seasons) WAR: 46.5
W-L: 114-74 ERA: 3.03 SO: 2059
Sale has been one of the best pitchers in the game for awhile now though his career stats profile as great, but not quite Hall-worthy. If he were to play for another ten years at the same level, he would achieve the stats required but a late career start puts him at 42 years old to do that. It is unlikely to perform at that level at that age, but he will be in consideration. Sale has led the league in complete games several times and innings pitched once (2017) in addition to winning the World Series in 2018, and has made the All-Star roster 7 times in 11 years.
Max Scherzer, P
Age: 37 (14 seasons) WAR: 67.1
W-L: 190-97 ERA: 3.16 SO: 3020
Max Scherzer is a dominant ace, leading the league in strikeouts, WHIP, innings pitched, complete games, and other stats several different seasons throughout his career. The 8-time All-Star has 3 Cy Young awards to go along with his 2019 World Series victory. Over 3000 Ks and just 10 wins away from 200, Scherzer is a walk-in for the Hall.
Zack Greinke, P
Age: 38 (18 seasons) WAR: 73.1
W-L: 219-132 ERA: 3.41 SO: 2809
Greinke has been at the top of his game for a long time, and while his strikeout rate has dropped off considerably in his twilight years, he still has enough pop left to pad his career stats before throwing his final pitch. Greinke already eclipsed 200 wins and just needs another two seasons on the mound to hit 3000 Ks. Greinke has played in the World Series, but never taken home a ring. He has a Cy Young, 2 Silver Sluggers, 6 Gold Gloves, and 6 All-Star appearances to go with leading the league in ERA twice (2009 and 2015).
Gerrit Cole, P
Age: 31 (9 seasons) WAR: 31.7
W-L: 117-63 ERA: 3.20 SO: 1673
Cole is about halfway through his career and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball for most of it. He is well on pace to have 200 wins and 3000 Ks before retirement, and despite solid postseason stats he hasn't taken home a World Series victory. Cole led the league in complete games the last few seasons and was top-5 in Cy Young voting 5 out of his 9 years. He's a 4-time All-Star, led the majors in ERA in 2019, and has a 300+ strikeout season under his belt. If he can stay healthy, he has the trajectory to make the Hall without question, especially if the Yankees can get back to their postseason form of years past.
Jacob deGrom, P
Age: 33 (8 seasons) WAR: 43.4
W-L: 77-53 ERA: 2.50 SO: 1505
Is there a better example of why the win/loss record as a yardstick for pitching greatness is antiquated than Jacob deGrom? He got a late start in the league at the age of 26 but is already halfway to 3000 Ks and sports a 2.50 ERA through 8 seasons. The downside? He plays for the Mets, who have squandered his talents worse than the Angels and Mike Trout. Can you imagine if the Angels win/loss record factored into Mike Trout's Hall bid? If deGrom can keep this up, he is a sure to make the Hall, having Rookie of the Year honors, 2 Cy Youngs, 4 All-Star appearances, and an ERA title on his resume to date to go with a sub-3 career ERA and close to 50 WAR after just 8 years.
Craig Kimbrel, P
Age: 33 (12 seasons) WAR: 21.9
SV: 372 ERA: 2.18 SO: 1026
The only closer on our list, Kimbrel has reigned as one of the league's most consistent closer since Mariano Rivera retired. It's unlikely he will get to 2000 Ks but he could get 500 saves, and that's a Hall-worthy stat. Kimbrel won the 2018 World Series with Boston and has Rookie of the Year honors, multiple Reliever of the Year awards, and 8 All-Star appearances on his resume. Closers tend to have extended careers, so Kimbrel has an excellent chance to pad his bid over the next 7-8 seasons if he can stay healthy as he ages.
Headed In?
Miguel Cabrera, 3B
Justin Verlander, P
Joey Votto, 1B
Albert Pujols, 1B
Ryan Braun, OF
Carlos Beltran, DH
Buster Posey, C
Nelson Cruz, OF
Jon Lester, P
Evan Longoria, 3B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Each of these guys is a household name, and either just retired or is about to. Cabrera, Verlander, and Pujols are probably first ballot guys. Votto, Beltran, and Cruz will be in consideration due to their power hitting numbers and long careers. Cano, Lester, and Posey are fringe guys who have the numbers compared to some current Hall members, it just will depend on how the voters feel once they hit eligibility. Maybe not first ballot, but they have a solid case. Longoria and Braun dominated the league for a stretch of time, but it may have been too short a stretch, and they probably don't have the numbers to sneak in despite having great careers. If there was a Hall of Very Good, they would be shoo-ins.
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