The 2022 off-season has been one of the most eventful in history.
A host of big-name free agents found new homes on max deals. Several superstars demanded trades (and got them), which had a ripple effect throughout the league. Let's tackle the biggest questions in the aftermath of the offseason frenzy.
Is Tyreek Hill still a first rounder?
Hill was one of the few wideouts being taken in the first round over the last several seasons, and paired with Pat Mahomes it made a lot of sense. Generally, the only receivers taken in fantasy first rounds are paired with elite quarterbacks, and Hill left that behind to join...Tua Tagovailoa. That's quite the downgrade and it's impossible not to reflect that in the 2022 offensive projections for Hill.
Positives? Hill is still a top-10 YAC receiver in the league, meaning he can turn a short dump pass into an 80-yard TD in a 4.2-40-dash flash. That's going to help mitigate the decreased arm talent of Tua, yet Hill saw 159 targets in KC last season and it will be tough to gameplay that volume of targets to one person (if Miami hopes to actually win games). Add on sophomore Jaylen Waddle and his 140 targets from 2021, and someone is taking a hit in the target department in 2022. Last season the next two receivers in Miami had 111 targets...combined. In order for both Waddle and Hill to have similar success this year, they would need to account for roughly 64% of Miami's 500 team targets. Unlikely. Did I mention the Dolphins want to run the ball more this year?
Probably fade both Hill and Waddle here after this one. But not too far.
Is Russ An MVP Candidate?
It's been all over the media lately, courtesy of NFL Network's Peter Schrager..."who has a better shot at MVP this year, Rodgers or Wilson?"
I hope we aren't getting ahead of ourselves here. Wilson is 34 years old and when you look at 2021, the Seahawks offense and the Broncos offense were near identical on paper. While a feeling persists that Denver had a much better rushing game than Seattle...they didn't. The Seahawks as a team also scored 60 more points (that's 10 touchdowns) more than Denver last season.
Wilson was dealing with a thumb injury that limited him to 14 games, and the injury affected his play after a quick return as well. Nevertheless his 17.7 points per game last year was unimpressive, and it's hard to argue Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy are an upgrade over DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The projected Denver rushing efficiency with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon may put Wilson into scoring position more often but overall the model for success is less "let Russ cook" and more "let Russ cook on third down, if running hasn't worked".
Then there's the receivers, Sutton and Jeudy, with Tim Patrick and the burner KJ Hamler. We have seen flashes from most of them but a lot of any "Wilson for MVP" conversation is contentious on these wideouts achieving things we haven't seen them do before. They haven't had a quarterback like Russell Wilson before either, but it's not like he is joining an established receiver corp with a bona fide superstar on board.
Basically, if Wilson is putting up top-5 fantasy QB numbers this season, it likely means Denver isn't winning many football games. I am metering my expectations when it comes to letting Russ cook.
Will Davante Adams Produce?
There was a lot (and I mean a lot) of drama in Green Bay lately, going back to when the Packers drafted Jordan Love in the first round of the 2019 draft. Most of it surrounded Aaron Rodgers, but ultimately it was Adams who left the Pack to pursue opportunities elsewhere. The move surprised many, including Rodgers, as Adams seemed insistent his path would follow that of his former quarterback. After Green Bay secured Rodgers to a long-term deal, they shipped Adams off to Las Vegas in a blockbuster trade that the star wideout appeared happy with.
Davante Adams is the most targeted wide receiver in the NFL over the last four years and it's not particularly close. Last season alone Adams accounted for 44% of the WR target share in Green Bay, a stat that usually isn't sustainable, yet in 2020 it was 51%. 2019? Still a monster 40% of all wide receiver targets and the guy missed 4 games. Combine that with Aaron Rodger's passing efficiency and you see why Adams is the highest scoring fantasy wide receiver over the last half-decade.
Now plug Adams into the Vegas offense with his college quarterback Derek Carr. Carr is clearly a step back from Rodgers, and lacks the split-second accuracy to zip passes into receivers who aren't open. Without a quarterback forcing the ball to him, Adams can't maintain the level of production in Las Vegas that he did in Green Bay.
No one expects Adams to put up GB numbers in Vegas I don't think. But we may be underestimating how much the star may regress. Las Vegas traditionally throws the ball about 50-70 times less a year than Green Bay, and a lot more passes go to non-WR positions. While new coach Josh McDaniels may want to make a splash in the AFC West and establish air control with his new toy, Adams will be limited by a weakened target share and a downgrade in arm talent from Rodgers to Carr.
The basic analysis when looking at the big three trades of the 20022 off-season says, be careful. Hill and Adams left favorable situations for relative unknowns, and Wilson's largest upgrade on his new offense is...the running game? WIlson was a mid-round QB last year and he should remain there for 2022. Adams and Hill were late first rounders, but when you take into account a rough 12% target regression for each they quickly become low-end WR1s and should be taken in the second/third round with the likes of Stefon Diggs and Chris Godwin.
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