With only four games left in the new 17-game NFL season, we are beginning to see some teams solidify themselves as postseason probables but a few of the divisional and wild card races are far from over.
AFC Division Leaders:
1. New England Patriots (9-4)
2. Tennessee Titans (9-4)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
4. Baltimore Ravens (8-5)
AFC Wild Card Race:
5. Los Angeles Chargers (8-5)
6. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
7. Buffalo Bills (7-6)
(In the Hunt)
8. Cleveland Browns (7-6)
9. Cincinatti Bengals (7-6)
10. Denver Broncos (7-6)
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6-1)
12. Las Vegas Raiders (6-7)
13. Miami Dolphins (6-7)
In the AFC the race is so close that we could see a bit of movement in the seeding down the stretch, but teams like New England, Tennessee, and Kansas City are almost guaranteed a wild card spot even if they were to lose their respective divisions. Based on the matchups each team faces through the next four weeks, the Patriots, Chargers, and Bills have the easiest path to going 3-1 in that span, while the Ravens and Colts both have schedules that pit them against top NFL teams and could believably only win one more game in 2021.
The good news for the Ravens is that they play the Bengals week 16, giving them a chance to stave off Cincy's division bid, but the Browns are hot on their tail as well and have a much easier schedule. Baltimore also has the tiebreaker over several teams in the hunt, so mainly they need to take care of Cincinnati and Pittsburgh and hope they can steal one against Green Bay or the Rams.
One big matchup that will decide a lot is Kansas City vs LA Chargers this Thursday night. The Chargers beat KC earlier this season and also has a one-game conference tiebreaker on them as well, so if LA wins this matchup they will likely win the AFC West. If the Chiefs win, they will have a 2-game lead in the West that will carry them the rest of the way unless they have a massive collapse and lose out through the final 3 weeks.
In all honestly, I expect the AFC playoff picture to remain fairly similar to this. If there is any movement other than seeding, it would be the Colts being eliminated by the Bengals or Browns, or the Ravens being knocked out of the division title by the Bengals or Browns, in which case Baltimore would then likely knock the Colts out of the wildcard and take their spot.
Broncos, Steelers, Raiders, and Dolphins not only have extremely tough opponents to face down the stretch but also don't have the tiebreakers likely required to steal a spot from Baltimore, Indy, or Cleveland. If any of these teams were to win out, they would certainly squeeze into a 6th or 7th seed because it means they beat a few of the teams ahead of them in the rankings.
NFC Division Leaders:
1. Arizona Cardinals (10-3)
2. Green Bay Packers (10-3)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-3)
4. Dallas Cowboys (9-4)
NFC Wildcard Race:
5. Los Angeles Rams (9-4)
6. San Francisco 49ers (7-6)
7. Washington Football Team (6-7)
(In the Hunt)
8. Minnesota Vikings (6-7)
9. Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)
10. Atlanta Falcons (6-7)
11. New Orleans Saints (6-7)
12. Carolina Panthers (5-8)
13. Seattle Seahawks (5-8)
The NFC Divisional race isn't as close as the AFC, with several teams pulling away and practically locking up their place after week 14. Green Bay and Tampa both hold 4 game leads with 4 games left over their closest division rival, Dallas has a 3 game lead, and Arizona holds just a 1 game lead after losing to LA Monday night, but with 10 wins they are basically guaranteed a wild card spot even if they lose their division.
Dallas could conceivably go 2-2 down the stretch and still win the NFC South by 2 games. Washington has a pretty mild schedule but likely won't be able to move up past the 7th seed unless the Rams or 49ers have an epic collapse. The 49ers actually have an easier schedule than the Rams through the last four weeks, and could move up in seeding especially if they beat Los Angeles in week 18.
Much like the Chiefs/Chargers situation in the AFC, the Cardinals and Rams are only a game apart and we could see them jockey for their division title. After losing week 14 to LA, the Cardinals have a fairly easy schedule down the stretch whereas the Rams have a slightly harder path. The cardinals also have a 2 win division lead on the Rams, meaning even if the Rams have the same record as Arizona, the Cardinals have the tiebreaker over them.
The teams "in the hunt" face uphill battles to reach the playoffs based on the opponents they have to beat in order to get there. Essentially a lot of the teams at the top are playing the teams in the hunt so other than a few upsets here and there, the NFC playoff picture likely remains similar to this blueprint as we enter wildcard weekend.
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