There are a lot of reasons why WRs fall to the mid rounds, or are elevated to the mid-rounds, depending on the player. Lets take a look at who we should, and should't, be targeting.
After doing a deep pull of fantasy info about wide receivers taken in rounds 6-10 (picks #72-#120) over the last ten years, we find a lot of data that isn’t very surprising. In this region we see low-end WR1s and (perceived) high-end WR2s on their respective teams being drafted, and those tend to experience volume inconsistencies. What you see in some cases is several receivers on the same team being drafted close together, which means fantasy owners don’t really know which one will emerge as the WR1, but expect one of them to exceed expectations. In general, we have been correct: since they probably don’t play on an elite team, or with an elite QB, it’s unlikely BOTH players will have breakout seasons. That isn’t to say they won’t both have good seasons, but you probably aren’t drafting both of them, so you need to choose the right one for your roster.
WR1s vs WR2s
A lot of these mid-round WRs tend to have a lot of value because they also naturally fall in the draft because the early round are generally used for RBs. This creates a great opportunity if you can identify the right ones. One thing the data shows us is that WR1s on their team tend to be an overall better draft choice than a WR2. In this instance, a good example would be Kenny Golladay. He is falling in drafts based on the historically low production at the position in the New York offense, especially with Daniel Jones. However, by the numbers he will have a better shot at a breakout year than any WR2 in that region, especially considering he is being drafted after WR2s like Mike Evans and Julio Jones. So what we take from this is that when faced with the WRs in the mid-20s like Golladay, Lockett, and Kupp…despite the offense, history says Golladay will have the better year. This also applies to Corey Davis as the WR1 for the Jets, and Hollywood Brown as the WR1 for the Ravens. Similarly if looking at DJ Chark compared to Jamar Chase, or Chase Claypool…DJ Chark is statistically the play, tho Chark (and Davis etc) has other issues we will address next.
WRs in Uncertain Offenses
The next category we find here is receivers in uncertain offenses. That includes DJ Chark/Leviska Shenault, Tee Higgins/Jamar Chase/Tyler Boyd, Juju Smith-Schuster/Chase Claypool, Brandon Aiyuk/Deebo Samuel, Brandin Cooks, and OBJ. In the case of Cooks, without Watson at QB no one really knows if the WR1 will produce at even a flex level. With OBJ, his injury history and Cleveland’s lack of scoring from the WR position leaves fantasy owners leery to draft him. In this region you are drafting players that most likely will be either your WR2 or flex option so you want some reliability and OBJ doesn't provide that. However, if you look at the above conclusions, since Cooks and OBJ are the clear WR1s on their teams, even if those teams have low expectations from the WR position, they are still a more solid option than the WR2s being taken around them. It's also interesting to note that the production rate above ADP of the receivers in this range didn't seem to be affected by how good their QB was, so you don't necessarily have to stay away from Corey Davis just because Wilson is a rookie QB.
The others are “uncertain“ offenses much like the “Ambiguous RB” rooms of the backfield. The data is much the same there though, the perceived WR1 (the one with the higher ADP) tends to outperform the perceived WR2, and has a breakout hit rate (score 100 points over the expected production from that ADP) of 22% compared to only 6% of the WR2s by ADP who were drafted at that range. To apply it to this season, if you believe the reports from Jacksonville, Chark is the WR1 on that team and Shenault the WR2, so Chark is the safer bet and that is reflected by their ADP. All this data says is that if you are thinking Shenault will outscore Chark, or even that he will massively exceed his own point expectation, it’s not as likely for him to accomplish that feat as Chark.
It gets a little more confusing when looking at a situation like Miami and Cincinnati. In Miami, they brought in Will Fuller, still have Devante Parker, and drafted rookie Jaylen Waddle in the first round to be with his college QB. In Cincinnati they have proven veteran Tyler Boyd, second year star Tee Higgins, and rookie Jamar Chase, also drafted in the first round to play with his college QB. Fuller and Higgins are the ADP WR1s, and history says that they are the safe bets. Higgins is my favorite of the group, he put up WR1 numbers each week with Burrow and Boyd did as well, meaning that there is room for production for more than just Higgins but since Chase has familiarity with Burrow, we have to take that into account. But considering that Higgins is already established in that offense, and second year receivers tend to have breakout years at a high rate, I think Higgins is the choice and Boyd will be the one demoted to the WR3 spot in Cincy. I’m high on Chase for a rookie breakout but even if he does, Higgins is set for a huge year. In Miami, Tua doesn't have the arm talent of Burrow but is still very capable. The free agent Fuller is immensely talented, but Parker doesn’t look to factor into the offense in a meaningful way at all with the drafting of Waddle. Waddle is a true specimen at the position, and even if Fuller (who is suspended for the first week of the season) is being drafted above Waddle, and Waddle is a rookie…between the injury proclivity of Fuller and the familiarity between Tua and Waddle, I expect Waddle to be the WR1 on the season and that makes his draft value very high considering he is going several rounds after Fuller.
WR2s vs WR3s
The last category addressed here is the WR3s. They sneak up into this mid-round draft region usually because they play in prolific offenses that can actually create a WR3 that is more valuable than many WR2s. A prime example of this is Antonio Brown. He is being drafted in the region of WR1s like Hollywood Brown and Corey Davis because he plays on a very pass-oriented offense that just won a Super Bowl. However, I’m of the opinion that Mike Evans is merely the WR2 in name only, and if you look at the target share and production of AB at the end of last year he was a solid high WR-2. In this region I love Brown, as I see him as a WR2 on an offense that will make a WR2 more valuable than the WR1 in, say, Baltimore. Generally you should always take the WR1 on the board over any WR3 regardless of the situation, but in this case, we have to account for factors the stats cannot (such as the regression of Mike Evans, or the emergence of Waddle, or the continuing success of Higgins).
Summary
Basically, what we found was that in the mid rounds, WR1s are better options than WR2s, and if you are unsure which receiver out of a group will be the most successful, the one with the higher ADP generally is the safer bet. We also find that WR3s in these ranges tend to be good bets because the reason they are climbing in the ADP is that there is a circumstance on their team that makes people believe they will see more opportunities and that generally tends to be correct.
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