The most interesting position in fantasy sports. You can’t take one too early…but if you take one too late it could be disaster. Yet every year, fantasy managers that roll with late round QBs...win championships. Here are my 2021 QB rankings as of August.
1. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott was a top 5 QB in the games he played last year under Mike McCarthy (1st in Attempts, Completions, and Yardage stats). The offense in Dallas is filled with weapons, and if healthy they are one of the most explosive in the league. Despite drafting LB Micah Parsons in the first round, the teams biggest weakness is still the defense, meaning Prescott will be asked to throw the ball all four quarters. This is the main reason I see him finishing the season as the QB1, over other top guys like Allen and Mahomes.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Allen provides fantasy owners with fantastic reliability at the QB position. He has a great arm, he runs the ball, and he is built like a tank, reducing the injury risk over slighter guys like Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson. His team has added some receiver help, and even if his ground production decreases from 2020, he is a versatile QB on a very good team, so after leading fantasy football in scoring last year Allen is a solid contender to do so as well again in 2021.
3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Mahomes is probably the safest of the top 4 QBs; he plays on the most productive offense out of all of them, he has endless weapons, and can also move the ball with his feet. I believe he will finish the season as the QB3-QB5, mainly because he won’t be required to play from behind to win NFL games. That's a good thing for the Chiefs in real life, but for fantasy it means Mahomes is less likely to need to put up 40 points on the board than the situations Dallas and Buffalo find themselves in.
4. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Murray could be the QB1 easily on the year, and the fact that his draft value has him going in the fifth round or so, he is an attractive option once the true fantasy stars are off the board. The Cardinals are set to be a very exciting offense this season, and even if Kyler doesn't have as many rushing TDs as in 2020 (11), his passing TDs (26) look to rise as he finds his footing in the NFL.
5. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
While I am not a fan of the way Rodgers has handled himself over the offseason, he has adjusted his contract clearing a path for an exit after this season and that means one last hurrah with the GB offense that almost made it the Super Bowl last year. Rodgers had an amazing season in 2020, and though we have to assume natural regression (the Packers efficiency stats, especially red zone, are bound to come back to the norm a little), Rodgers is still a surefire QB1 option in any fantasy format.
6. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert broke rookie QB records last season, and despite a historical regression for breakout QBs in their second year, Herbert already proved the record books wrong in 2020 and there is no reason to expect him to stop in 2021. The Chargers have an explosive offense, and despite losing Hunter Henry in the offseason, there are still plenty of weapons for the young QB to exploit. He is a must-start in pretty much any situation.
7. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson was on pace to be the QB1 on the year until about mid-season, when running for his life stopped paying off. Wilson is not Kyler Murray, and in 2021 the Seahawks look to protect him better and run the ball more. While that plan may take out Wilson out of the fantasy QB1 running, Wilson still provides a high floor option with the ability to boost stats by scoring on his feet.
8. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow was up there with Justin Herbert in 2020, taking the league by storm as a rookie, until he destroyed his knee mid-season. Burrow looks to be at full speed for week one, and between his feet and a plethora of offensive weapons, Burrow is poised to blow fantasy out of the water in 2021 providing that knee is actually 100%.
9. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Lamar Jackson was a little disappointing for fantasy owners last year, but only because he was drafted so highly. Jackson still was a very productive fantasy QB, and shows no sign of stopping in 2021. His rushing ability provides an automatic floor for the position and potential for QB1 numbers each week. If Baltimore succeeds at running the ball more, Jackson could see a little regression in that department, but he is still the focal point of that offense.
10. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
This may surprise you, but since joining the Titans...Ryan Tannehill has put up weekly top-5 QB numbers 73% of the weeks he has played. He also had 7 rushing touchdowns in 2020, so that's a pretty solid floor for a late-round QB that also has a RB on his team that opens up the passing lanes for star receivers AJ Brown and veteran Julio Jones.
11. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brady isn't an exciting pick for your QB, but if you look at how the Tampa Bay offense performed over the last five weeks of the season and the playoffs, Brady is top-5 fantasy QB. The team looks to continue its roll both offensively and defensively, so TB12 is a solid late-round QB option that you can get at a value because people are drafting more exciting (and risky) QBs like Hurts over the veteran.
12. Matt Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Matthew Stafford is finally on a team with true Super Bowl aspirations and a defense to back it up. Losing RB Cam Akers to injury already means the talented QB will asked to throw the ball more than planned, and I believe we will see the true Stafford potential realized in 2021. What does that mean for fantasy on a team led by their defense? A solid floor each week and much less risk than starting the volatile QBs in this draft range.
Backups/High Upside Options
13. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Cousins has a lot of weapons and if Cook stays healthy, he has an explosive check-down target that can blow up QB numbers.
14. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
Hurts is a risky option in a pretty bad offense, but his ground ability gives him QB1 upside even if his team isn losing.
15. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
If he plays, or if he doesn't, he is worth rostering. Watson is facing a lot of civil suits, but no criminal charges (yet), and the NFL hasn't taken any actions suspending him. If he plays it will likely be in Houston, and since he is a top-10 QB talent even on that awful Texans team, worth a bench spot at his current ADP.
16. Ryan Fitzpatrick, WFT
FitzMagic has a crazy deep arm, and with the triple threat of McLaurin/Samuel/Thomas, he is in a prime offense to offer depth for a fantasy team.
17. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
We should't be drafting Lawrence expecting him to put up Herbert numbers his rookie year, but his talent warrants a flyer in the Urban Meyer system. His ADP is slightly high because of the name though.
18. Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns
The Browns have adopted a playing style that doesn't involve a heavy passing attack, which means Mayfield's outlook is too inconsistent to rely on weekly, but he will have a solid amount of huge games which makes him an interesting bench option.
19. Tua Tagoviola, Miami Dolphins
Much like Lawrence, you are banking on the ceiling here. Tua could have a stellar year, but even with high hopes for the Miami offense, that might not translate to fantasy success. He isn't currently being drafted at all, so pretty low risk flyer pick.
20. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
Carr should be a top-10 QB based on the system, but he consistently disappoints. He will finish top 24, but if we are talking backups, take a flyer on Zach Wilson over Carr.
21. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Jones keeps getting better, and with a healthy Barkley the Giants look to roll. Much like Tua though, the system doesn't lend itself to fantasy QB numbers.
22. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Ryan is hitting the aging wall and his floor is solid, but for the same reasons as Carr, Ryan isn't someone I'm looking at in a backup role unless its a super flex league.
23. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers
See Matt Ryan analysis above.
24. Jimmy Garroppolo, San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy G is slated to start the season for the 49ers, and the team has an extremely easy schedule to start the season. That's not good news for Trey Lance, because if Garroppolo begins the season strong he has a very good chance to keep the job all year long as Shanahan grooms Lance ala Smith/Mahomes.
Low Floor, No Cost Guys (Last Pick Draft or Waiver)
25. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
26. Zach Wilson, New York Jets
27. Sam Darnold, Carolina Panthers
28. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
29. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
30. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
31. Cam Newton, New England Patriots
32. Jacob Eason, Indianapolis Colts
33. Teddy Bridgewater, Denver Broncos
34. Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
35. Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
36. Tyrod Taylor, Houston Texans
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Author's Rant:
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts:
Don't draft Carson Wentz. Even before his foot surgery news. Wentz has never been a good quarterback. If you take away his rushing numbers, his career is basically Nick Mullens. Who is Nick Mullens? Exactly. Last year, Philly was a train wreck, but Wentz was a huge part of that train wreck. In plays with a clean pocket and an open receiver (essentially, the play the offense ran worked), Wentz was dead last in the NFL in QBR in those situations. That stat is a glaring glimpse into the fact that Wentz is just a really bad QB and it won't matter what offense he plays in, because he wasn't ever very good. And if he dopes produce at all, he will immediately get hurt. Don't draft Carson Wentz.
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