I'm high on Joe Mixon. Many are not. Let's delve into why.
Joe Mixon put up his best numbers after Joe Burrow got his footing in the beginning of 2020, seeing 20+ touches per game in all six contests he played in until suffering a season-ending injury. Mixon has had more than enough time to heal, but many aren't trusting him to meet his draft value as a high-end RB2. Is Mixon once again a prime bust candidate, or is he poised to make the leap into the elite RB1 class in 2021?
Mixon had a respectable rookie year in 2017, drafted in the second round out of Oklahoma. He most likely would have been a first round selection, but there were some off-the-field issues that caused the talented back to fall. He followed that up with 14 and 16 game campaigns where he saw nearly 300 touches and totaled 1400+ all purpose yards in each. What really held Mixon's fantasy value from reaching his ceiling was the receiving, and touchdowns. During that stretch, he only averaged 2.6 receptions and 0.5 touchdowns per game. Despite his yardage and volume metrics squarely in the elite region, the lack of passing game usage and consistent scoring kept him out of the top-10 in fantasy RB scoring.
Fast forward to 2020. The Bengals draft Heisman-winner Joe Burrow out of LSU, and follow up their first-overall pick with Clemson wideout Tee Higgins early in the second. Suddenly, the stagnant Bengals offense that Mixon had been slogging away in had a spark. Burrow's mobile-hybrid playing style lent itself to featuring an every-down back like Mixon. Through six games in the new offense, his receptions average increased to 3.5 per game and touchdown average to 1.5 per game, while maintaining a total average of close to 24 touches per game. That's a highly used running back in a league of committee backfields and run-heavy RPO quarterbacks. Of course, Mixon suffered a foot injury week 6 and after a few weeks of hoping, he was finally put on season-ending IR. If we extrapolate his 6 weeks of stats though, we would be looking at an RB who posted a 320/1150/ 8 rushing line and 56/370/3 line through the air. That's good enough for 267 PPR fantasy points and a solid RB4 finish had he stayed healthy.
The numbers don't lie. In the old offense, Mixon was a high-end RB2. In the new offense he was the RB9 through 6 weeks, and though it's hard to project how his numbers would have changed once Burrow himself went down, the potential is clearly there. Mixon carries an "injury prone" label with him, but he has played more games than Dalvin Cook since they were both drafted (in the second round) in 2017, and Cook is being taken no problem second overall. I think the discrepancy is that Mixon plays with an injury designation often, and it's obvious that when he plays hurt, his production suffers. He also has a tendency to have a few massive fantasy outings each year, countered with stretches of pedestrian output, and that taints manager's outlook when he is a big part of an 0-3 run that keeps you out of the playoffs.
Now on to why I'm so high on Mixon this year. All the positives and negatives covered are very valid. However, I would argue that Mixon's inconsistencies are a product of a terrible Bengals offense that was generally outmatched regardless of who they played, and last year, we can't forget the impact a rookie QB finding his footing has on creating consistency in any regard for the positional players around him. I think Mixon, Higgins, Boyd, and Burrow himself exceeded expectations for the situation they found themselves in. And that's why I'm a huge fan of Mixon and have him ranked as my RB6. His current ADP is hovering around 14-20 depending on the platform, which means most draft positions outside of the top 5 should have an opportunity to land Mixon as their RB2.
I firmly believe that Mixon will finish the year as a top-10 fantasy running back, outscoring guys like Austin Ekeler, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, and Zeke Elliott. I'm buying every share of Mixon I can get, especially in a year where quality RB options drop off insanely fast after the first round. Any time a RB commands the load and target share that Mixon is set to see, you want that guy on your team and I'm not afraid to draft him a little higher than conventional thought.
Draft Joe Mixon.
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