It's peanuts and crackerjack season, people.
With the lockout cleared up, MLB teams were left to scramble in order to install some semblance of spring training. Though shortened several weeks, with trades and free agent signings dragging on through most of it, spring training has revealed some interesting insight into how the 2022 MLB season is going to play out.
Many teams made huge moves in the offseason to beef up their shot at making a run. Health is always a common theme on teams able to make deep playoff runs, and depth to counter the inevitable injuries that go along with sports. Let’s take a look at each division and see how it will shake out, based on off-season moves and rotational strength (on paper, of course).
AL East
Toronto (z)
Tampa (x)
NYY (x)
Boston
Baltimore
AL Central
Minnesota (y)
CWS
Cleveland
Detroit
Kansas City
AL West
Houston (z)
LAA (x)
Texas
Seattle
Oakland
The AL East is the best division in baseball; in fact if the new playoff format was in place last season, every AL East team except Baltimore would have made the postseason. Tampa has been ruling the division behind a strong pitching rotation and bullpen lately, but off-season moves and a healthy roster gives a new winner in the East: Toronto. They brought in Kevin Guasman and extended José Berríos, solidifying a rotation to compliment the powerful lineup that includes Vlad Guerrero Jr, Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez, and George Springer. Could the Blue Jays do more than just win the division? Toronto is a dark horse for the World Series in 2022 if they can stay healthy.
The Minnesota Twins are ready to be relevant again. After winning the Carlos Correa sweepstakes, adding him to a lineup that includes Byron Buxton, Gio Urshela, and Jorge Polanco, they have enough power to compete in a division ruled by pitching. Their own rotation leaves something to be desired, and getting the most out of Sonny Gray and company will be paramount to the Twin's success. I think they can stave off the White Sox and take the division, but how long they will last in the postseason remains to be seen with their current limitations.
And there's Houston. The Astros are still one of the best teams in baseball, and despite losing Carlos Correa they still have more than enough star power to compete for another World Series. Verlander is back, slugger Yordan Alvarez looks to be the real deal, and they still have Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Tucker in the lineup. With Verlander leading a rotation of Odorizzi/Valdez/Urquidy/Garcia that will eventually get Lance McCullers Jr back, it's hard not to pencil these guys into the pennant before the season's first pitch.
One thing the lockout produced was an expanded postseason, something the MLB owners were pushing hard for due to increases in television revenue the extra series provides. For the first time ever, the playoffs will feature the three division winners and three wild cards from each league, a total of twelve teams compared to the previous format of eight teams. Instead of the irritating "play-in game", everyone now gets a three-game series in the first round with the two highest seeds in each league getting a first round bye.
The AL Wildcard race will mainly be highlighted by the AL East, as four of the five teams (sorry Baltimore) vie for potentially four playoff spots, but more likely they will be fighting for three. It's even possible the division winner and the wild cards only be separated by a few games, meaning the order of these contenders could be switching up all the way to October. For the sake of this argument, Tampa retains the second spot in the East, and the Yankees did enough in the off-season to edge out the Red Sox and head to the playoffs for the sixth year in a row.
This is where it gets tough. The White Sox have one of the best pitching rotations in baseball, along with an amazing batting order that excels defensively as well. Texas just spent big on their infield with Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, and Boston if healthy could easily snag this last playoff spot. I'm going a different direction, and one the MLB would love as well: the Angels. In the AL West, if Los Angeles can keep their stars healthy, these guys are a 90-win team and in the playoffs. The stars need to align for LA, and 2022 is the year they pull it together and make the playoffs with the surefire Hall-of-Famer on their roster, Mike Trout. Make it for Mike, guys. He deserves it.
NL East
NYM (z)
Atlanta (x)
Philadelphia
Washington
Miami
NL Central
Milwaukee (y)
St. Louis
CHC
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
NL West
LAD (z)
San Francisco (x)
San Diego (x)
Colorado
Arizona
The Los Angeles Dodgers are, once again, the best team in baseball. That’s what happens when you can afford to lose money as an organization year after year while chasing championships (they finally got one in the Covid-shortened 2020 season). Walker Buehler is getting the opening day start for a rotation that includes Clayton Kershaw and Julio Urias. They brought on future HOF first baseman Freddie Freeman from Atlanta, and despite losing elite closer Kenley Jansen, they acquired future HOF candidate Craig Kimbrel to replace him. Oh yeah and they still have Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, and Cody Bellinger.
Milwaukee is set to battle it out in the NL Central with the St Louis Cardinals. I’m giving the Brewers the edge due to a pitching rotation that features Brandon Woodruff, Corbin Burnes, and Freddy Peralta. The Cardinals have the stronger batting order and bullpen, but availability from key players like Jack Flaherty and the impending decline of others like Nolan Arenado may affect their division chances.
The Mets spent big in 2021 when they traded for (and signed) Francisco Lindor, and backed it up this off-season by bringing in Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, and Mark Cahna. Adding Scherzer to a rotation that includes Jacob de Grom and Chris Bassitt makes it one of the best in baseball...if Scherzer and de Grom are healthy. De Grom hasn't pitched since last July, dealing with arm issues that will now see him miss time entering 2022 already. Scherzer is 38 years old, and while he is a surefire Cooperstown candidate, he is 38 years old and that comes with a certain amount of risk. For the sake of this prediction however, we are banking on relative health for the team and a roster that capitalizes on a narrow window to take the division.
The NL wildcard race will be an exciting one, with extra spots up for grabs it gives more teams a chance far deeper into the season. Our top wildcard here is San Francisco, as they wildly outperformed expectations last season and didn't get appreciably worse in the offseason, losing ace Kevin Guasman and replacing him with Carlos Rodon as the major move. Atlanta comes off winning a World Series to struggle a little, much as they did in 2021, but a healthy Ronald Acuña Jr paired with Matt Olson will give them the pop to get into the party. The third wildcard spot is a little tougher top predict, with multiple teams having the outlook to get there. I expect St. Louis and Philadelphia to be pushing down the stretch, but after Fernando Tatis Jr recovers from his wrist injury I expect San Diego to surge into the last wildcard spot.
We will keep track of these predictions as the season progresses!
コメント