The final stretch of the fantasy season is here, as most leagues have only three weeks left before the playoffs. For most of us, securing a week 12 win can make or break our shot at the postseason, and with two big time teams (Kansas City and Arizona) on bye, we have a list of potentials that can save your week. And when we say "potentials"...we're just looking for double-digit points out of these guys.
Out of the 6 teams that played on Thanksgiving, there weren't any breakout performances. Josh Jacobs fared well (18.20 half PPR) but everyone else had fairly pedestrian, if not disappointing, outings.
For our purposes, we are assuming the A-listers are must starts (CMC, Cook, etc). If Cordarrelle Patterson plays, he is a must start. Damien Harris is trending to play and despite the increased snap sharing in New England, he still has RB2 value and should be played. Melvin Gordon has scored five touchdowns in the last four weeks, so he falls into that must-start RB2 category as well. If you have Leonard Fournette, Antonio Gibson, or Elijiah Mitchell, shove them in there.
Aaron Jones is a game-time decision for Green Bay and if he plays it will likely be on a snap count. That being said, most managers probably will be forced to start him regardless. The same goes for Saquan Barkley, he is officially questionable but expected to play, and when he isn't 100% he tends to be pretty average. Personally I don't like Barkley or Jones this week if they play, so if you have options it's best to avoid these two. Most people simply don't have better options this week however, so I get it. I would play a banged up Aaron Jones over Wayne Gallman too.
Anyways, here are the fringe RBs we like this week, and the ones we don't.
Ball 'Em
Miles Sanders, PHI
Sanders returned from IR to a backfield that failed to secure an identity in his absence. Sanders carried the ball 16 times for 94 yards and reestablished his role as the 1A of the committee back approach. This week the Eagles face the Giants (allowing the 29th most points to fantasy backs) and then the Jets, who are worst in the league in that department. There is always the worry that Jalen Hurts steals the ground scores, but volume alone makes Sanders a solid RB2 plug-and-play for week 12 and beyond.
Javonte Williams, DEN
The rookie has been part of the 50/50 Denver backfield with Melvin Gordon all year, and despite their ground yardage being similar, Williams has been fairly absent in the passing game. He also only has 2 scores on the year compared to Gordon's 7, which also creates a fantasy disparity. This week the Broncos face tough division rival Los Angeles, who's strengths on defense primarily lie through the air. If the Denver play callers can effectively use their two-headed rush attack, Williams has low-end RB2/high-end flex potential in week 12.
Devonta Freeman, BAL
Freeman has established himself as the lead back in the Baltimore committee (behind Lamar Jackson of course), meaning the regardless of the snap share Freeman is getting the majority of the important snaps. He has three touchdowns in the last four games, and in games where he doesn't score he manages to accrue enough volume to still have reasonable value. Latavius Murray has re-entered the mix but wasn't a factor in week 11. Baltimore faces Cleveland this week, who has been pretty average against the run this season. Freeman is a solid RB2 play.
Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
Stevenson has gained the respect of Josh McDaniels in New England after a few monster games where he displayed supreme power in addition to agile footwork. With the return of Damien Harris expected this week, Stevenson will be in a solid snap share but that shouldn't automatically put him back on your bench. The Patriots face Tennessee this week, who is one of the best in the league against the rush. I think this actually gives Stevenson an edge over Harris in that respect, as Harris will likely get the traditional downfield runs while Stevenson can be employed in more creative schemes that look to be more effective against what Tennessee is offering up. Strong flex value with mid-RB2 upside this week.
Ty Johnson, NYJ
With Michael Carter going on IR with a high ankle sprain, the New York backfield is left to Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson. I basically refuse to tell anyone to start or even roster Tevin Coleman because he breaks easier than Raheem Mostert. After Carter went down last week, it was Coleman who took on the majority of the carries and Johnson was held to just one rush and one target through the air. The Jets have a (reasonably) favorable matchup with Houston this week and while Coleman may get the ground work, Johnson's versatility and high-volume potential in the pass game make him a solid flex option. The return of rookie QB Zach Wilson under center could also boost the receiving back's value, as Wilson has struggled under pressure and short passes are encouraged.
Sleepers
Dontrell Hilliard, TEN
David Johnson, HOU
Bench 'Em
AJ Dillon, GB
If Aaron Jones doesn't play, obviously plug Dillon back in based on touches alone. Jones is trending to play against the Rams however, and although it will be on a snap count this relegates both Jones and Dillon to decent flex plays, but neither will have the ceiling you probably are hoping for when putting them in at your RB1 spot. Use them with metered expectations.
Myles Gaskin, MIA
Gaskin has enjoyed success as the clear lead back in Miami, and though better play from QB Tua Tagovailoa has contributed, the Dolphins face a tough matchup against Carolina in week 12. Over the course of the season, when the Dolphins face a better-than-average rush defense, Gaskin does miserably (with the odd exception of the Tampa game week 5, his best game of the year). I'm thinking that trend continues and without a score (he only has one on the ground and one through the air over the last five games), Gaskin is basically a low-end flex this week.
Latavius Murray, BAL
(See Davonta Freeman above). Murray came back from IR and was fairly ineffective compared to his committee counterpart, leaving his value squarely in the random touchdown department. Freeman and Jackson will take the important carries, so relying on Murray to get a valuable scrap is desperation at this point.
Alex Collins, SEA
With Carson on IR for the rest of the year now, the Seattle job is solely in the hands of Collins and Travis Homer. Neither have been effective, but you could say that about Seattle as a whole. Collins keeps trotting out there getting double-digit carries each week but hasn't eclipsed 6 fantasy points (half PPR) since week 6. Probably okay to cut this guy. (Watch him go score twice against Washington this week just to spite me).
Bust Alerts
Saquan Barkley*
Aaron Jones*
*likely to play but also likely to be limited. Don't be fooled.
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