With Green Bay's two leading receivers on the CoVid-19 list and Arizona's star wideout dealing with a hamstring, how do we navigate this early week matchup?
Green Bay's two most targeted wideouts, Devante Adams and Allen Lazard, both landed on the CoVid-19 list earlier this week. With the Packers playing on a short week, there was little chance of either clearing protocols and it appears, they will not. Lazard didn't have fantasy value, but Adams is a must-start in all leagues, so this causes an immediate scramble.
Arizona lost veteran defensive lineman JJ Watt to a shoulder injury last week, which weakens their front seven considerably with how Watt has played this season. More concerning from a fantasy perspective is wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who has remained on the injury report with a lingering hamstring injury. Hopkins is one of the NFL's iron men though, having missed only TWO GAMES over his nine year career, and we expect him to suit up tonight.
Without Adams playing tonight, we are left to figure out where he and Lazard's combined 14-18 targets per game are going. The obvious answer is veteran Randall Cobb, who Rodgers pounded the table for in the offseason and got him traded back from Houston. Cobb and Lazard have had similar roles as the secondary receivers behind Adams and RB Aaron Jones, but Cobb has already shown his reliability with a near 80% catch rate and a two-touchdown game against Pittsburgh. Left with few options, it stands to reason that Rodgers will default to what's familiar and gravitate towards the veteran.
If you are weak at tight end, a huge start of the week for me is Robert Tonyan, whom Rodgers can rely on in the red zone and is fresh off a score last week against Washington. Look for Tonyan to have a healthy target share and a score in back to back weeks.
Backup running back AJ Dillon has seen increases opportunities as of late as well, both on the ground and in the passing game, so this is a perfect time for him to step up as well. He has RB3/flex value this week.
Clouding the waters is Packers receiver Marques Valdez-Scantling, who has been on IR with a hamstring injury yet traveled to Arizona with the team and hopes to be activated and play. If MVS plays, it would be without setting foot on a practice field in over three weeks, so a "pitch count" on usage should be expected or he risks aggravating the hamstring.
Also part of the picture is rookie wideout Amari Rodgers, selected in the third round of this year's draft. Rodgers figured to be the explosive slot receiver for Green Bay, but so far this season he has two catches on two targets, while Devante Adams continues to have more targets than the rest of the team combined. Without Adams and Lazard however, it's unlikely Amari Rodgers will line up on the outside, so he could sneak a bunch of those slot bailout passes when the pressure gets to (the QB) Rodgers. Equanimeous St. Brown will also be involved, but both he and Rodgers are too risky to put into fantasy lineups tonight.
Hopkins will likely play, but that means he will be limited. the star's fantasy season has been salvaged by his high rate of scoring touchdowns, other wise he has not had the targets and yardage we were expecting. You have to start him if he plays, but I'm expecting WR2-level numbers out of him at best due to metered usage. Green Bay does have a pretty bad pass defense but their CB Kevin King is returning, further bad news for Hopkin's fantasy outlook.
Chase Edmonds is a must-start this week due to his insane usage this year. The only thing holding him back is touchdowns, he has zero. Edmonds would be a top 12 running back on the year if he even had a few touchdowns. That whole locker room is behind getting this guy into the end zone tonight, which means I like him more than Conner at the RB2/flex level.
If Hopkins does not play, honestly it's not the worst thing in the world. Arizona has a high number of talented targets for Kyler Murray, and his production is likely absorbed by a mix of players. New addition tight end Zach Ertz profiles to be a red-zone target magnet, and veteran AJ Green would largely take on Hopkins' role between the 20's. Christian Kirk has been more consistent lately than rookie Rondale Moore, although both would see an uptick in targets. Both Green and Kirk are available in most fantasy leagues, so if you are a Hopkins owner, roster Green (or Kirk, if Green is unavailable) and swap them in before game time. Ertz is pretty touchdown dependent in this matchup and is a start if Hopkins is ruled out; if Hopkins plays, I like him less.
Must Starts:
QB Kyler Murray
RB Aaron Jones
Ball 'Em:
WR DeAndre Hopkins*
RB Chase Edmonds
TE Robert Tonyan
WR Randall Cobb
RB AJ Dillon
WR AJ Green*
WR Christian Kirk*
TE Zach Ertz*
* Must start if no Hopkins
Bench 'Em:
QB Aaron Rodgers
RB James Conner
WR Rondale Moore
WR Amari Rodgers
WR Eq. St. Brown
If Hopkins plays, you play him. If he is ruled out, AJ Green is a definite start in his stead, or Christian Kirk if Green is unavailable. Aaron Rodgers is a sit for me this week with no Devante Adams and the stout AZ defense...there has to be a better option for you at QB than this matchup on a short week. Rodgers could ball out...but so far he has mainly done that against weak defenses, and with his star wideout.
Score Prediction:
Green Bay 24, Arizona 37
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