“Boycott the Monforts”. “Sell the Team”.
Those have been the off-season mantras since the departure of Nolan Arenado. Regardless of your feelings on the Monforts or the Rooftop, we’re going to shed some light on several reasons it’s not all doom and gloom at Coors Field.
First of all, let's be clear: expectations (as far as the postseason goes) have to be managed. You can argue about the reasons why, but every team experiences the ebb and flow of balancing talent with payroll. Colorado has a severe disadvantage when it comes to free agency and attracting pitchers, because most aces view pitching at Coors Field as a career-ender. They will literally take less money to go play at sea level. And that's not the Monfort's fault, that's just reality. It means the Rockies have to develop starting pitching from within, and when that's your only option, you get mixed results.
This isn't to say the Rockies can't win games this year, because I believe their win totals will surprise fans and MLB beat writers alike. If you break it down, the 2022 Colorado Rockies have just as much talent on their roster as they did in the 2019 playoff year, and that's a reason for hope.
Kris Bryant
Rockies fans love to hate him already, because he isn't Nolan Arenado. News flash, Bryant isn't even playing third base, he's headed out to left field. Bryant was brought in on a 7yr/$182M contract, which some think was pretty steep for an underperforming former MVP and Rookie of the Year. Despite recent struggles at the plate, Bryant is an elite talent who should see shades of his former glory at the power-friendly Coors Field, and exceeding his career high 39 home runs is a distinct possibility.
Freeland/Marquez
The rockies pitching staff, led by German Marquez and homegrown Kyle Freeland (above), has a tough road ahead of them like any year. If Freeland can regain some control and return to a semblance of his 2018 2.85 ERA/4th place in Cy Young voting year, the Rockies will make a huge leap defensively. Marquez is always consistent, but Colorado needs a true ace on the mound and Freeland was exactly that in 2018...can he do it again? Freehand is getting the opening day start against the Dodgers Friday, so we will know quickly what kind of control he has on his pitches.
Ryan McMahon
Ryan McMahon has been climbing up the ladder for years in the Rockies organization, becoming an everyday starter in 2019 and impressing the league with his defense coupled with power at the plate. My bold prediction is McMahon joins the All-Star team this year, he should have been an All-Star last year but he didn't get the popularity votes (plus a lot of his production came after the break). 2022 profiles to be the year McMahon truly breaks out, and if we see a .280/35 HR/100 RBI season out of him with a Gold Glove on top, you'll be seeing a lot more McMahon jerseys in the stands.
CJ Cron
CJ Cron was a low-key addition the the Rockies in the 2021 off-season, but the guy did nothing but produce his way into being named the National League Player of the Month for August last year. That type of production should continue into the 2022 season, giving Colorado a first baseman with All-Star potential for the first time in years.
Senzatela/Gomber
The guys leading the back part of the rotation are frustratingly inconsistent. Antonio Senzatela sees stretches where he gives you a shot to win any given outing, followed by a period of getting pulled in the third with six runs on the board. Gomber was acquired in the Arenado trade and has shown flashes, yet injury has held him back from showing his true ceiling. If these two can string together a few months of keeping their ERA in check, they give the Rockies an edge that everyone predicting a 0% playoff chance aren't expecting.
The Outfield
Chuck Nazty (above) isn't going anywhere, but his on-base percentage and power numbers did. The aging Colorado staple is in great shape, but the veteran decline has clearly started and we can expect to see Charlie in the DH role a bit. Fan favorite Ramiel Tapia was shipped to Toronto (where he might win a World Series) in exchange for center fielder Randall Grichuk, a perennial power hitter who gives the back end of the lineup some pop that it has been missing. Not to mention Kris Bryant in left, with speedy Sam Hilliard and Garrett Hampson rotating in depending on who slots in at DH any given day.
The Infield
We already addressed McMahon and Cron, our dark horse All-Stars. The Rockies brought in Julio Iglesias to play short while former top prospect Brendan Rodgers will man second. Neither guy is known for their plate prowess, but defensively they will do the trick.
Catching duties will once again be shared by Elvis Diaz and Dom Nunez, nothing particularly exciting there but Diaz does have power with 18 home runs last year in 106 games. Nunez struggled mightily with strikeouts in his first season in the majors, but has substantial power as well if he can reign in his swing.
Perhaps most intriguing is up-and-coming Conner Joe (above), who has seen limited action over the last few seasons but is slated to see a lot more after a spring training where he hit .412 with an OPS of 1.147 across 40 plate appearances. In addition to offering a sub for CJ Cron at first, Joe is right behind Bryant in left on the depth chart, so we should expect to see him join the outfield shuffle as well.
The Bullpen
And now on to literally no one's favorite topic, the Rockies bullpen.
It seems like the Rockies bullpen woes have been a theme since Houston Street departed. Wade Davis came here to die. Jake McGee was awesome...until the Rockies signed him, and then cut him, only for him to go to the rival Giants where he's back to being great again. Adam Ottavino was a shining star for a year until the Rockies decided not to pay him, and he went to the Yankees for relative pennies (much like DJ LeMahieu years ago).
Alex Colome is the latest in a string of closers to jump on the mound for Colorado, joining the team after a middling season with Minnesota that saw his ERA over 4.00 for the Twins. Daniel Bard and Carlos Estevez, who had pretty up-and-down seasons in 2022, are back on board to mitigate the damages for Colome in the later innings.
This year's shimmering hope back there is Robert Stephenson (above), acquired in a trade from Cincinnati last year. He missed six weeks to injury in the middle of the year but finished the season strong with a 2.03 ERA over his final 32 appearances, allowing just one earned run over his final 15 outings. If Stephenson (who will miss Opening Day while under Covid-19 restrictions) can maintain his August/September level of production heading into the 2022 campaign, the Rockies will finally have a setup guy to protect their closer from having to be lights-out every outing to get a win.
In Summary, Not All Bad
Basically, the end of the pitching rotation and the bullpen are always the Achilles' heel for the Rockies. I'm predicting a better season than expected from Coors Field, but that can go off the rails quickly if the offense is producing 9 runs a game and the bullpen is allowing 5 over the final three innings. We are all too familiar with piling on runs but losing 12-9 after holding a commanding lead...until the starter gets pulled in the sixth. These are issues most teams have to deal with, but with another year of experience under the belt of the rising stars in the organization, we shouldn't be surprised when they perform better than ESPN or your neighbor is predicting.
The Rockies aren't a playoff team this season, but Kris Bryant stated that he has never played on a losing team and it is very possible that personal record stays in tact for him. Vegas has the over/under on wins for Colorado at 68.5, I mean that's predicting almost a 100-loss season. You have to be really really bad to lose 100 games in professional baseball. I like the Rockies win totals more around the 78-win mark, which is still a little under .500, but that gives them the opportunity for a late-season surge and a finish with 82 wins certainly attainable.
It's Opening Day, the Rockies aren't as bad as everyone has been saying, and it's time for them to go out and prove me right. You may not agree with me right now, but when the Rockies are flirting with .500 and holding their own against the league's best after the All Star break, think back to this and go, "hey that guy was right, the Rockies aren't absolute trash after all".
Play Ball!
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