CodyJOliver

Apr 21, 20229 min read

2022 NFL Draft Over/Under: What Vegas Thinks

Vegas gives pretty tell-tale signs as far as when they think a prospect will get drafted, and their odds are set up so they can make money off it. How can we use this to our advantage?

Kenny Pickett, QB

Vegas: Over 10.5 (-182)

Under (+136)

Vegas is making us decide whether we think Pickett is a top ten pick, or not. Based on their +136 for the under, they don't think Pickett will be taken by Detroit, Carolina, Atlanta, or Seattle with their first pick and if a team moves up for a QB, it won't be for Pickett.

Our Take: Vegas thinks the earliest Pickett will go is #11 to Washington and more likely they are predicting him to New Orleans or Pittsburgh at #16 or #20.

Malik Willis, QB

Vegas: Over 9.5 (-130)

Under (-102)

Vegas put Willis at 9.5 because there are simply too many suitors, and he is the only quarterback prospect that multiple teams are vying for. By posting the -130/-102 split Vegas is saying that they expect Willis to fall out of the top ten.

Our Take: Vegas is buying into the current trend away from any team taking a QB in the top ten. Seattle with the 9th pick might be tempting, but they seem averse to spending that high of a pick on a developmental QB. Willis likely will be drafted by a team moving up ahead of New Orleans (Pittsburgh), or a team moving back out of the top ten (Carolina).

Aidan Hutchinson, DE

Vegas: Over 1.5 (+124)

Under 1.5 (-172)

Vegas is telling us, the Jags are going to draft Aidan Hutchinson. Stop overthinking it. They are offering better than double your money if he isn't selected with the first pick.

Our Take: If Jacksonville doesn't draft Hutchinson, Detroit will. Simple as that.

Travon Walker, DE

Vegas: Over 3.5 (+172)

Under 3.5 (-235)

Walker recently has been touted as high as the first overall pick, and even if that doesn't happen the odds are indicating he won't make it past the Texans at #3.

Our Take: Walker darted up draft boards after an impressive combine outing. In order to go top 3 he will need to be selected over Thibodeaux, which is a 50/50 toss up for me at this point.

Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE

Vegas: Over 5.5 (+120)

Under 5.5 (-160)

Is Thibodeaux going to take a tumble on draft night? We'll see. Vegas thinks it's likely he is taken in the top 5 by offering +120 if he goes #6 or later.

Our Take: Thibodeaux is easily the most intriguing defensive prospect in this year's draft. For whatever reason he is everyone's favorite player to have falling, but he is arguably more explosive than Hutchinson and certainly experienced more personal success in college than Walker. Don't be surprised if Thibs is the second pass rusher off the board to Detroit or Houston.

Ikem Ekwonu, OT

Vegas: Over 3.5 (-132)

Under 3.5 (+100)

Ickey is in much the same situation as Travon Walker, yet in his case the odds say he will not be a top 3 pick. Vegas believes the pass rushers will be taken first.

Our Take: Ekwonu's only real shot at top 3 is if Jacksonville or Houston decides to go offense over pass rush, and also decides that Ekwonu is a better prospect than Evan Neal.

Evan Neal, OT

Vegas: Over 4.5 (-140)

Under (+106)

Vegas is offering double your money if Neal is picked in the top 4, thus we can assume they do not believe that's going to happen. Neal did not participate in the combine, but faced the toughest competition at Alabama and his tape smokes that of his closest competitor.

Our Take: Neal has been surpassed by Ekwonu as the top tackle prospect, but Neal is still the better pro-ready lineman in our estimation. If a tackle is selected top 5, it's going to be Neal.

Derek Stingley Jr, CB

Vegas: Over 11.5 (+112)

Under 11.5 (-148)

Vegas is pretty sure Stingley is gone before the Vikings pick at #12. There are a host of teams who can use a generational cornerback in the top ten, followed by Washington at #11 who could also opt for the talented DB.

Our Take: The Jets, the Giants, Atlanta, Houston, Seattle, and Washington all have Stingley high on their draft chart. So do the Vikings, who have been stirring the pot with rumors of trying to move up into the top ten for Stingley. He will be gone by #12, one way or another.

Devonte Wyatt, DT

Vegas: Over/Under 29.5 (-114)

Wyatt and Jordan Davis were the bash brothers on Georgia's National Championship defense last year, and while Wyatt has been mocked as high as a top ten pick it seems Vegas has cooled on that idea. Kansas City holds the 29th and 30th picks in the draft, and could use a stalwart interior pass rush/run stuffer like Wyatt.

Our Take: Vegas isn't offering decent odds either way on Wyatt, meaning they just aren't sure. While KC could draft him, there are a lot of teams expected to pad their defensive line in the first round and we could see Baltimore, Houston, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Tennessee, or Tampa select Wyatt before #29. It is unlikely Wyatt falls out of the first round.

Kyle Hamilton, S

Vegas: Over 9.5 (+104)

Under 9.5 (-138)

Other than the QBs, Hamilton might be the most controversial prospect in the draft due to the level of hype coming out of college followed by a catastrophic combine performance. Vegas is still predicting Hamilton to be a top ten pick, likely considering the Jets at #10 to be the farthest he falls.

Our Take: I still feel Gardner and Stingley are off the board before Hamilton, meaning it is very unlikely he is a top ten pick. Pound that over.

Charles Cross, OT

Vegas: Over 7.5 (-130)

Under 7.5 (-102)

Cross is rated as the most pro-ready tackle in the class by several analysts, including Pro Football Focus. These odds indicate Vegas feels Neal and Ekwonu will be taken first but Cross won't be far behind.

Our Take: The Giants have the 5th and 7th picks in 2022, and Carolina has the 6th, so it's no coincidence they put his O/U at 7.5. If no one takes a QB or DB in the top 5, Cross is likely picked #7 or earlier. If Malik Willis or Sauce Gardner find themselves picked highly, Cross likely falls past #7.

Jermaine Johnson II, DE

Vegas: Over 9.5 (+124)

Under 9.5 (-166)

Vegas is all but certain the Florida State star will be a top ten pick. So much so, they are paying out +124 if he goes to the Jets at #10. The Seahawks hold the 9th pick and Johnson has been slated to them in several high-profile mock drafts.

Our Take: Pass rushers reign supreme in the top ten of any draft, but Johnson was a late riser and has three top rated edge guys ahead of him expected to be taken first. Add in the potential for defensive backs, quarterbacks, and wide receivers sneaking into the top ten plus the expected three tackles going...I'm pounding that over. Johnson won't fall far if he slides past the Seahawks at #9, but he is also the most likely to be leap-frogged by Gardner or Garrett Wilson.

Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, CB

Vegas: Over 7.5 (+136)

Under 7.5 (-182)

Sauce Gardner was really good in college and even better at the combine. He didn't look great against Jameson Williams in the CFB playoffs, but that's besides the point. Vegas feels pretty strongly Gardner will not make it past the Giants at pick #7.

Our Take: Gardner is the lone defensive back with real potential to be drafted in the top 5 and if he falls past that, teams will toss their draft board away and take him. He could fall past 8 if the Giants trade backs with one of their picks.

Desmond Ridder, QB

Vegas: Over/Under 30.5 (-114)

Will the Lions take Ridder with the final pick in the first round, or will he be taken by another QB-hungry team earlier? Vegas isn't sure. There is a lot of interest in Ridder but most teams don't seem willing to spend a first rounder on him. We could see a team trade back into the end of the first round for him in order to secure the fifth year option.

Our Take: Ridder has the most impressive college resume of any of the prospects. He should be a first round selection, but it is doubtful he is selected over Willis or Pickett and that puts his first round viability in question.

Garrett Wilson, WR

Vegas: Over 10.5 (-102)

Under 10.5 (-130)

Vegas gives Garrett Wilson the best odds to be the first receiver off the board, and the 10.5 o/u is forcing us to decide if he squeaks into the top ten or not.

Our Take: Drake London and Jameson Williams could challenge Wilson as the first receiver off the board but it's still likely the Ohio State star that gets taken first. Atlanta has been mocked to select Wilson at #8 and the Jets at #10, but if he doesn't go there he won't slide far. Washington at #11 and the Saints pair of picks in the teens are where he will land if he doesn't go top 10.

Jordan Davis, DT

Vegas: Over/Under 13.5 (-114)

Vegas thinks Davis will be the first defensive tackle off the board between he and his Georgia teammate Devonte Wyatt. The 13.5 puts him squarely in the Texans sights, and the odds are saying that the earliest he will go is Houston at #13.

Our Take: Houston likely goes defensive line at #3, so very unlikely to select Davis here. Baltimore with pick #14 have shown interest in stacking their defensive line in this draft, but they also have needs on the offensive line and are rumored to absolutely love Derek Stingley Jr. I think the Ravens also pass on Davis and he falls to Philadelphia, or perhaps even into the twenties where a team like Tampa Bay will stop his slide.

Drake London, WR

Vegas: Over 10.5 (-132)

Under 10.5 (+100)

Drake London has the size that other receivers in this class lack, and will be a mismatch for increasingly undersized corners at the NFL level. Vegas is indicating there is an outside chance London is a top 10 pick, but it's unlikely.

Our Take: London might have the most NFL success out of any of the projected first round receivers and several WR-needy teams in the top ten will be eyeing him. The Falcons at #8 and the Jets at #10 are probably his only chance at going that high, and those teams unfortunately have other areas of need in a year where the receiver class is enticingly deep.

Trevor Penning, OT

Vegas: Over 16.5 (+112)

Under 16.5 (-148)

Vegas has Penning pegged as the best of the rest in the tackle class, and they expect him to be selected pretty early. The Saints hold the 16th pick, and the LA Chargers have the 17th...at the +112 for the over, Vegas thinks Penning will not be a Saint.

Our Take: The Saints have two picks in the first round and it's possible they have to take Penning with the first of them, considering the Chargers will take him if they don't. I have had Penning penciled in at the LA #17 pick for several mocks now, and it appears Vegas is feeling that too. Pound that over.

Jameson Williams, WR

Vegas: Over 13.5 (-102)

Under 13.5 (-130)

Vegas has Williams slated as a mid-round selection and that seems pretty standard, especially considering the odds offered...they are't confident either way. 13.5 is the Texan's pick, a team with many needs and receiver is one.

Our Take: Williams could go to the Jets or Commanders at picks #10 or #11, but much like Houston they have a lot of needs and the receiver class is fairly deep. Unless he is the first receiver taken, Williams will likely fall past #13 and be selected by a team with a little more roster luxury.

Chris Olave, WR

Vegas: Over 17.5 (+106)

Under 17.5 (-140)

Vegas has Olave flirting with the top 15 but ultimately they think he falls closer to the twenties, basically predicting that if the Chargers don't select him at 17 he likely ends up with New Orleans or a team there after.

Our Take: Olave is a surefire first rounder but his draft position will be determined by the receivers taken ahead of him. I like Olave to Green Bay at #22, so with those +106 payouts I would bet the over hard.

George Karlaftis, DE

Vegas: Over 17.5 (-130)

Under 17.5 (-102)

Vegas is feeling the fall of Karlaftis, a trend in recent mocks generally because those teams expected to go edge are going defensive backs and wide receivers early in the first.

Our Take: 17.5 puts Karlaftis as a potential selection for New Orleans or Philadelphia with the under...or New Orleans or Philadelphia with the over. If he makes it to 15, he is probably going to be a Saint or an Eagle.

Trent McDuffie, CB

Vegas: Over 17.5 (-102)

Under 17.5 (-130)

McDuffie is also put at the 17.5 o/u, the Vegas "we're not sure" odds. He is the considered the third best corner in the draft.

Our Take: It's very likely Gardner, Stingley, and Hamilton are taking before McDuffie, which means him being selected before #17 is going to be tough unless Philadelphia uses their #15 pick on him. If not Philly, McDuffie likely slides into the twenties where New England and Buffalo will be prime candidates for the DB.

-Odds on the Rest-

Jahan Dotson, WR

Vegas: Over 32.5 (+112)

Under 32.5 (-148)

Treylon Burkes, WR

Vegas: Over/Under 23.5 (-114)

Tyler Linderbaum, C

Vegas: Over/Under 28.5 -114

Andrew Booth Jr, CB

Vegas: Over/Under 26.5 (-114)

Devin Lloyd, LB

Vegas: Over 18.5 (+102)

Under 18.5 (-136)

Daxton Hill, S