Are you ready for fantasy?
There is a lot to consider when preparing for your fantasy draft in 2022, with a historic number of fantasy-relevant players moving teams and retiring, not to mention the array of highly-drafted rookies entering the mix.
Last year’s "pre-season darlings" are a year older, will we finally see Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson emerge as fantasy starters? Will Trey Lance live up to expectations, will Amon-Ra continue his late-season dominance?
All of these questions are hard to answer before training camp starts, but we can identify several indicators to help us do our early summer draft prep.
A lot of fantasy evaluations are based on identifying the top of the list. That’s fairly simple to do, take who has the highest production rate from previous years combined with their projected target share and you can predict roughly who is going to be a top producer. This year it’s Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, etc at wideout, with the usual suspects at the top of the RB list, and Josh Allen is the QB of choice.
Not everyone can land these top guys though, so I like to identify an “exit strategy” to employ when the league-winners don’t fall into your lap. That involves pinpointing the ADP mid-rounders who will produce at a top-tier level, primarily at the RB and WR positions. This gives you the ability to comfortably pass on highly drafted players knowing you have a much cheaper alternative that will keep you afloat as you target other positions in the early draft rounds.
Last season I employed this strategy in most leagues with Antonio Brown. I knew he was going to explode as long as he was on the field, and he did…until injuries both physical and mental made him unavailable. Perhaps not the best example in retrospect, but amusing regardless.
The point remains however, in the five full games Antonio Brown played in 2021, he saw 38 receptions on 54 targets for 502 yards and 4 touchdowns. With that kind of production in your back pocket, you can take a flier on earlier round guys who might be borderline over-drafted. Perfect example last year was Ja’Marr Chase, an unknown commodity with high potential yet his ADP reflected that: you had to pay a premium to find out. When you know you can take Antonio Brown in the flex rounds but comfortably place him in your WR2 slot if a prospect like Chase doesn’t work out, you don’t sink your season if some gambles don’t work out.
So who are the fantasy prospects that can fill this need for us in 2022? We’re looking for receivers past the fifth round and running backs after the fourth who can post top ten numbers on a weekly basis, and to identify those you have to do a little projecting. Here’s the top eight mid-rounders with top-tier upside at the RB and WR positions, before training camp starts.
Running Back
Elijiah Mitchell, SF
Breece Hall, NYJ
Miles Sanders, PHI
James Cook, BUF
Travis Ettienne, JAX
Rashad Penny, SEA
Darrell Henderson Jr, LAR
Tony Pollard, DAL
Elijah Mitchell proved himself as the leader in the 49ers backfield last season, after a rash of injuries left few options and Deebo Samuel had to take on part of the load. This season Mitchell figures to be a larger part of the game script with an inexperienced QB and a coaching staff that knows what he can do. Mitchell missed 6 games himself last season, but still put together nearly 1000 yards on the ground and finished as a top-25 fantasy RB. Extrapolate that to a full healthy season and you have a weekly powerhouse on your roster.
Breece Hall is high on the list based on how excited the Jets were to draft him. He will see plenty of opportunity if he can avoid the rookie injury bugs that plague so many young starters. The Jets have Michael Carter in the backfield as well, and should be able to maximize value from Hall has the leader of the RB committee rather than running him into the ground immediately. The whole offense is young, but with a solid offensive line and new receiving weapons, the ground game should be open for business in New York.
Miles Sanders is solid when healthy, but staying healthy has been an issue. For Jalen Hurts to have success, the Eagles need their running game on point and Sanders has proven to be the most productive of the group. Second year RB Kenneth Gainwell is a great change of pace back, but Sanders provides the Eagles with a pass catcher who can also pound the rock between the tackles. Last season Sanders did not score a touchdown, which obviously hurt his fantasy viability, but if the Eagles have solved their passing issues by adding AJ Brown and another year of experience to Jalen Hurts, the ground game should see an uptick in scoring opportunities as well.
James Cook has the highest potential to break out of any of these eight running backs due to the unknown factor. Buffalo has been looking for an elite running back for years and they might have found it in Cook out of Georgia. Due to game script and the talent on the Bills roster, Cook could see his fantasy stats padded in the fourth quarter as Buffalo cruises to victory.
Travis Etienne is another unknown commodity, but one we feel will slide into the Jacksonville scheme just fine. Paired with his old college QB Trevor Lawrence, we should see the fireworks out of the backfield this season that we were expecting last year (before his pre-season injury). So many things went wrong in Jacksonville last season, but unless we want to be talking about how Trevor Lawrence is the biggest bust of all time, we need to see him put together a stellar season and Etienne figures to be a big part of that.
Rashad Penny has some major durability issues, but if he can stay healthy he is slated to get the work in Seattle (depending on how mid-round RB Kenneth Walker performs of course). Last season he blew up down the stretch as the only healthy Seattle running back on the roster, but he produced with those opportunities at a high level. Even if Walker eventually fills the role, Penny has every shot to lead the backfield early in the season if he can stay healthy, on a team that will need to rely on the running game more after losing Russell Wilson to Denver. Interesting fact: Penny ranked 3rd in the NFL for yards after contact (avg), behind Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor.
Darrell Henderson Jr stepped up for the injured Cam Akers last season and pieced together one of the most consistent years for a fantasy RB in the league. The Rams scheme plays well into having multiple productive RBs, so the return of Akers drops Henderson a bit in projections but not as much as you may think. Henderson will get work based on the production he provided in a championship year, and the Rams also want to keep Akers healthy, which means sharing the load.
Tony Pollard managed to put together a surprising fantasy season alongside Zeke Elliott, to the level where he was hurting Elliot's projections on a weekly basis. He didn't crush fantasy per say, but if the trend is real, we could see a lot more snap-sharing in the Dallas backfield this season. Pollard is also a huge handcuff to have at your disposal, with an aging Elliott's durability and production level seeing an expected decline. Pollard's versatility has increased his usage, and that can pay big dividends for your team if you can secure him with a value pick.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas
Robert Woods
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Allen Lazard
Gabriel Davis
Darnell Mooney
Allen Robinson
Brandin Cooks
Michael Thomas hasn't played in awhile, but pairing him with Jameis Winston is sure to make some highlight reels. His value may creep up as draft day approaches but for now he is still hanging out down around the fifth/sixth round and could pay massive dividends if he ends up on your team. The last time we saw Thomas was with an aging Drew Brees, which may have contributed to his volume of short-pass targets, but Winston is known for stretching the field (for better or worse) and a talent like Thomas can benefit from the gunslinger approach. Add on highly-drafted prospect Chris Olave out of Ohio State and defenses won't be able to focus on Thomas alone downfield.
Bobby Trees (best nickname in the NFL) is getting a lot of attention as he takes up the WR1 spot in Tennessee after injury shortened his 2021 season in LA. Woods has immense talent and while he will produce with the ebb and flow of the rushing game behind Derrick Henry, the baseline stats should merit a weekly starting spot on any fantasy roster. Last season if Woods hadn't gotten hurt he was on pace to be a top-15 fantasy WR in LA, even with Cooper Kupp commanding a huge part of the target share. Huge dark horse candidate here.
A lot of people are down on Amon-Ra St. Brown, as a lot of his late-season explosion last year was due to a rash of injuries leaving St. Brown as one of the pew pass-catching options in Detroit. Well, they drafted Jamison Williams in the first round, and TJ Hockenson will be healthy again, so perhaps he doesn't see the deluge of targets he got week 13 -18 (he was the overall WR3 in that span), but I would argue the targets he does see should be a bit more productive when the entire defense isn't slanting his way. Amon-Ra is a steal at his current ADP.
Someone has to catch the ball in Green Bay, and while it may end up being the rookie Christian Watson, my money says Rodgers will abuse a more familiar target (at least initially). Allen Lazard is a huge target at 6' 5" and has already earned the veteran QB's trust over several seasons of hauling in deep balls and tight window touchdowns. Last year that trust was solidified over the final five weeks of the year when he caught 21 balls for 290 yards and 5 touchdowns in that stretch. He may not see a huge volume between the 20's, but his touchdown numbers will more than make up for that.
Gabriel Davis came on late last year in Buffalo but really leapt off the stat sheet in the playoffs, where Josh Allen abused him with targets and he scored five touchdowns in two games. We likely won't see that Gabriel Davis on a weekly basis, but he did put on 20 pounds and at 6' 2" 225 he has the stature of a WR1 now. Trust is also a big thing in football, and with Allen clearly trusting him in the biggest moments last postseason, we should see a bit more of that in the regular season as well.
Darnell Mooney established a connection with rookie QB Justin Fields and ran with it, surprising fantasy managers along the way. That connection is expected to continue, despite the additions of Byron Pringle and N'Keal Harry, as Mooney plays a slightly different role. He is the diet Jaylen Waddle in Chicago, able to streak deep but more commonly found slanting across the middle as a bailout for his young QB. That adds up to lots of fantasy targets.
Allen Robinson could be the steal of the draft. He has a ton of talent, but has spent the last few seasons dealing with hamstring issues. Essentially he is filling the Robert Woods role that OBJ filled for the end of last season, and the stat sheet says that is a pretty productive role in fantasy terms. Sean McVay's scheme lends itself to offensive production rom all sorts of positions and with a fairly cheap price tag, Robinson could return to his former glory on your fantasy roster.
Brandin Cooks has everything going for him in fantasy except the team he plays for. The Texans will have their games, but overall the offense is a bit of mess so it's hard to trust that Cooks will be close to the end zone enough to matter. Ultimately it comes down to target share and opportunities, and as the clear most talented person on that offense, Cooks is worth plugging in as a WR2 option. A lot of it depends on if quarterback Davis Mills takes a step forward in his second season, but even mediocre QBs can produce legitimate fantasy wideouts.
Stay tuned for our next podcast, and keep an eye out on social media for fantasy contest updates and the all-important 2022 Fantasy DraftRankings!
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