It's that time of year again, folks.
Training camp is underway, and as players knock the rust off, we fantasy managers have gotten a little rusty in the off-season as well. Maybe you got a little swept up in the Colorado Avalanche winning the Stanley Cup, or perhaps baseball has your interest through the dog days of summer.
Well, football is back baby and it's back with a vengeance. The craziest off-season in NFL history is almost over, and it's time to see what it means for fantasy football.
A lot of factors go into fantasy rankings, but you will find most analysis is purely based on point projections. We take into account draft capital as well, attempting to find a balance on how productive a player will be in conjunction with how much you have to spend to get him.
Here are the early-camp fantasy rankings for each position. Cheat sheet just covers the starters and top flex options, for more detailed breakdowns and explanations stay tuned for the positional breakdowns and more, dropping all month!
Quarterback
Josh Allen BUF
Kyler Murray ARI
Justin Herbert LAC
Joe Burrow CIN
Pat Mahomes II KC
Tom Brady TB
Lamar Jackson BAL
Jalen Hurts PHI
Dak Prescott DAL
Russell Wilson DEN
Matthew Stafford LAR
Aaron Rodgers GB
Josh Allen is an absolute beast and until he proves us otherwise, the leader of the Super Bowl favorites should be the first QB off the board (I remember last year I was teased for selecting Allen before Mahomes. Who is laughing now).
The highlighted guys are my target QBs this year. I expect Kyler Murray to be a top 3 QB and Burrow top 5, yet with Murray’s QB4 ADP and Burrow at QB7…you can build a solid roster in the early rounds and still snag a top QB without overspending on Mahomes, Allen, and Herbert.
I have Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts ranked a little lower than most and that’s purely taking injury into account. Tom Brady is going to reliably put up 20 fantasy points a game, and likely plays 17 games. He is also being drafted behind Jackson and Hurts. Don’t get me wrong, Brady likely won’t have a 40 point week like the other two, but he also won’t miss three weeks.
Late-Round QB options:
Jameis Winston
Derek Carr
Trey Lance
Justin Fields
Kirk Cousins
Tua Tagovailoa
Trey Lance is climbing up boards as the August darling for late-round QB. Most of this is based on his rushing ability, but that’s a dangerous game to play. I like Lance as a late-round backup QB, but I’m not letting my season hinge on whether Lance is good or not with pretty much zero tape convincing me otherwise yet.
Running Back
Najee Harris PIT
Jonathan Taylor IND
Derrick Henry TEN
Christian McCaffrey CAR
Austin Ekeler LAC
Joe Mixon CIN
D'Andre Swift DET
Dalvin Cook MIN
Alvin Kamara NO
Nick Chubb CLE
Saquan Barkley NYG
Aaron Jones GB
Cam Akers LAR
James Conner ARI
Leonard Fournette TB
Javonte Williams DEN
Travis Etienne Jr JAX
Ezekiel Elliott DAL
Damien Harris NE
Josh Jacobs LV
Breece Hall NYJ
Elijah Mitchell SF
JK Dobbins BAL
Rhamondre Stevenson NE
James Cook BUF
AJ Dillon GB
Kareem Hunt CLE
Antonio Gibson WAS
Tony Pollard DAL
Rashad Penny SEA
Miles Sanders PHI
David Montgomery CHI
Cordarelle Patterson ATL
Ronald Jones II KC
Devin Singletary BUF
James Robinson JAX
At the top of the list we have second year back Najee Harris, who checks all the boxes when looking at past years to predict the next fantasy RB1. Essentially, it’s hard to choose anyone but Taylor when presented with the first overall pick, but Indianapolis made moves to take some of the load away from Taylor in the off-season. Pittsburgh meanwhile brought in Mitchell Trubisky and drafted Kenny Pickett. Harris is looking at a more expanded role if that’s even possible, Taylor at less.
Derrick Henry broke his foot last year and still finished the year as a top 20 back despite missing close to half the season. Tennessee is hoping to take the load off their workhorse a little this season, but a healthy Henry is a top 5 back week in week out regardless of the opponent.
Christian McCaffrey is on a lot of “do not draft” lists after he pretty much tanked the season of anyone who drafted him the last two years in a row. If he can stay on the field though, McCaffrey is one of the highest-volume backs in the league, and he plays for a team with questionable QB play once again. No one would be surprised if CMC was the RB1 on the year if he can stay healthy.
Travis Etienne is going to allow Trevor Lawrence to become the QB he was in college again. James Robinson will still take the power rushes, but Etienne will command the snap share and his receiving ability makes him a strong RB2 fantasy option.
Elijah Mitchell was electric last season when healthy and this season with Trey Lance the Niners look to run the ball a lot. Main worry is what bogged him down last year: health. No one could stay healthy in San Francisco in 2021 but it’s a new year and Mitchell can pay dividends from the typical “RB dead zone”.
I’m watching training camp footage and while Damien Harris is still the number one guy in New England, he established relevancy last year mainly through scoring touchdowns. Meanwhile second year back Rhamondre Stevenson is the better pass catcher out of the backfield and has begun taking downfield rushing reps as well. I wouldn’t be surprised if Stevenson sees a higher snap count than Harris by week 8.
Everyone is all about Breece Hall this season as the breakout rookie back, and he very well could be. My guy is Buffalo’s James Cook, fresh off a National Championship with Georgia. He is a smaller back but shifty, he can plow through a D-line just as easily as he can sneak out and haul in passes in the flats. Buffalo has a few other backs that have never been able to grab the reins and run with it…James Cook is that guy. Plus the Bills score a TON of points, and acquiring players on teams that score a lot is always a good thing.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp LAR
Justin Jefferson MIN
Ja'Marr Chase CIN
Ceedee Lamb DAL
Stefon Diggs BUF
Mike Evans TB
Deebo Samuel SF
Davante Adams LV
Tyreek Hill MIA
Tee Higgins CIN
Mike Williams LAC
AJ Brown PHI
DJ Moore CAR
Jaylen Waddle MIA
Courtland Sutton DEN
Michael Thomas NO
Keenan Allen LAC
Marquise Brown ARI
Michael Pittman Jr IND
DeVonta Smith PHI
Rashod Bateman BAL
Robert Woods TEN
DK Metcalf SEA
Terry McLaurin WAS
Gabriel Davis BUF
Chris Godwin TB
Juju Smith-Schuster KC
Christian Watson GB
Brandin Cooks HOU
Jerry Jeudy DEN
Diontae Johnson PIT
Darnell Mooney CHI
Skyy Moore KC
Allen Robinson II LAR
Elijah Moore NYJ
Amon-Ra St. Brown DET
Devante Parker NE
Josh Palmer LAC
Allen Lazard GB
Amari Cooper CLE
Christian Kirk JAX
Brandon Aiyuk SF
Rondale Moore ARI
Drake London ATL
Ka’Darius Toney NYG
Garrett Wilson NYJ
DeAndre Hopkins ARI
Treylon Burks TEN
Cooper Kupp made an argument to be the first overall fantasy pick this season. The kind of production he saw in 2021 is slated for regression but let’s not overthink this, Kupp will have the opportunity to win it all for managers once again.
The diamonds in the tough always abound at the wide receiver position. Outside the top 10 or even top 24, there are gems (like Kupp last year) waiting to explode.
A healthy Michael Thomas has all the upside needed to outperform his draft position.
Rashod Bateman and Michael Pittman Jr are the only noteworthy wideouts on their respective teams, generally a good thing in fantasy.
Jerry Jeudy has a new quarterback (Russell Wilson), and teammate Tim Patrick lost for the season to injury already in the early days of camp, increasing his chance for targets.
A healthy Tee Higgins is a top 5 fantasy wideout week in and week out. With or without Chase on the field.
Skyy Moore is going into a Kansas City offense that doesn’t have a lot of receiving threats. Currently I’m being cautiously optimistic about the rookie, but especially in the second half of the season…watch out. Much like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Elijah Moore came on for their teams late last year, Skyy Moore offers upside you won’t find from players being drafted around him.
Keenan Allen is getting older and when that happens…guys tend to miss time from injuries that wouldn’t have phased them earlier in their career. It wouldn’t surprise me if he missed some time this year, and I don’t think anyone would be surprised if “never healthy” Mike Williams missed some time…that means, Josh Palmer is next in line. More of an insurance pick than an immediate starter, stash Palmer on the bench until LA loses a piece.
Tight End
Travis Kelce KC
George Kittle SF
Mark Andrews BAL
Kyle Pitts ATL
Darren Waller LV
TJ Hockenson DET
Dallas Goedert PHI
Dawson Knox BUF
Dalton Schultz DAL
Pat Freiermuth PIT
Irv Smith Jr MIN
Hunter Henry NE
The age old tight conundrum is, if you don’t land a top truly elite guy…wait til the last round because it doesn’t matter. And sometimes it doesn’t. Of course Kelce, Kittle, and Andrews top the list but this year Raiders phenom Darren Waller falls a notch to make room for second year Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts.
Honestly I like a bunch of the tight ends this year, but if you wait til late and end of having limited options…take a flyer on Pittsburgh’s Pat Freiermuth and Minnesota’s Irv Smith Jr. Freiermuth may see increased red zone target share with a rookie QB (if Pickett wins the job), and Smith missed all of last season to injury but should be ready to show the league what’s up.
Stay tuned for more 2022 Sportsleaf Fantasy articles and advice all month long!
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