Tom Brady is on pace for career numbers in 2021, which is crazy to say about a 44 year old quarterback in his 20th NFL season. But, that is what's happening down in Tampa, although there are a few guys with potential to close on his tail as the final stretch of the regular season comes into focus.
1. Tom Brady, QB-Tampa Bay
Passing: 3771 Yards, 34 TDs/10 INTs (12 games)
Rushing: 19 Att 52 Yds, 1 TD
Brady leads the league in passing yards and touchdown passes, and with the added game this season he realistically could break a bunch of records. Brady has also played in all 12 games this season for Tampa, unlike several of his top competition for the award. Unless Brady is injured, or Tampa suffers a massive collapse, Brady is pretty far ahead in the stat categories and should take home the MVP.
2. Kyler Murray, QB-Arizona
Passing: 2399 Yards, 19 TDs/7 INTs (9 games)
Rushing: 59 Att 206 Yds, 5 TD
QBR: 112.2
Murray is clearly who the NFL brass want to win the MVP, he's young and represents the new era of the sport better than a 44 year old pocket passer or Green Bay's resident cry baby. The stick in the spokes here is injury, with Murray missing three games so far in the 2021 season. This has put him pretty far behind in the overall stats race, but his 112.2 QBR and 14.26 Att/TD ratio are best in the league. With four regular-season games remaining, the Arizona QB has time to boost his stats on the ground and through the air enough to give him a shot at unseating Brady in the MVP race.
3. Aaron Rodgers, QB-Green Bay
Passing: 2878 Yards, 23 TDs/4 INTs (11 games)
Rushing: 24 Att 76 Yds, 3 TDs
QBR: 105.5
While the reigning MVP hasn't seen the same record-breaking efficiency he saw a year ago, overall the veteran is having a top 5 year in QB rating and his TD/INT ratio is league-leading. If anything were to stall Brady or Murray, Rodgers has a chance to repeat as MVP if he continues managing his arm wisely.
4. Pat Mahomes, QB-Kansas City
Passing: 3384 Yards, 25 TDs/12 INTs (12 games)
Rushing: 48 Att 250 Tas, 2 TDs
Vegas is giving the Chiefs the only reasonable odds out of the AFC to win the Super Bowl, and most of that has to do with Patrick Mahomes. Known as "The Unicorn" because he slid under the radar of most teams save KC, Mahomes is the best QB in the league currently when it comes to versatility. Despite having a rough start to the year, if Mahomes can put up some electrifying games down the stretch he has a shot to steal the award from Brady.
5. Jonathan Taylor, RB-Indianapolis
Rushing: 241 Att 1348 Yds (5.6 YPC), 16 Tds
Receiving: 36 Rec 336 Yds, 2 TDs
Our first non-QB on the list, Taylor has exploded in his sophomore year and shredded even the toughest defenses in the league. It is very rare for a running back to take the MVP award unless he breaks some all-time records and the QBs that year were mediocre. It is the "most valuable player" award after all, and it's hard to say the player that touches the ball every single snap for a team isn't the most valuable. Taylor does have a shot to break the all-time rushing record if he averages about 140 yards a game down the stretch, especially with longer season, and if he does so while carrying the Colts to the playoffs he could potentially upset one of the QBs on this list for the MVP.
6. Josh Allen, QB-Buffalo
Passing: 3216 Yards, 26 TDs/10 INTs (12 games)
Rushing: 75 Att 422 Yds, 3 TDs
Allen was an MVP favorite entering the season, following his explosive 2019 and 2020 campaigns. Things haven't gone the way the Bills wanted, and they have taken some tough losses to surprisingly...bad...teams. Allen himself has been up and down, and while he is on pace to eclipse his yardage and touchdown passing marks from a year ago, he is also on pace to throw the most interceptions in his career by a wide margin, and profiles to fall far short of the career-high 9 rushing touchdowns he had in 2019. It would take a miracle surge for Allen to secure the MVP award at this point.
7. TJ Watt, LB-Pittsburgh
Have to put a defensive guy on the list, and if there is one who could potentially steal the award from an offensive player it would be TJ Watt. Watt missed two games so far to injury and still leads the league in sacks (16), and if he were to keep up this pace he would set a new NFL record with 24 sacks in a season. If that were to happen, and Watt is a large part of a late playoff surge by Pittsburgh, the young linebacker could be the league MVP. But that's a lot of things going historically right in order for that to happen.
8. Justin Herbert, QB-Los Angeles Chargers
Passing: 3547 Yards, 27 Tds/11 INTs (12 games)
Rushing: 44 Att 244 Yds, 2 TDs
Herbert was putting on quite the campaign through the first half of the season but the second year QB hit a rough patch, having some difficult games against the Ravens, Patriots, and Vikings that slowed his momentum. Herbert is top 5 in passing yards but his scoring stats will likely keep out of the MVP running unless we see some 5-6 touchdown games coming up.
9. Dak Prescott, QB-Dallas
Passing: 3170 Yards, 23 TDs/ 8 INTs (11 games)
Rushing: 30 Att 91 Yds, 1 TD
Prescott was another early MVP favorite, in the explosive Dallas offense with endless weapons and a stout line to protect him. Prescott has lived up to the hype, but has had a few seriously horrendous outings that killed his chances at actually leading the league in any passing category. Coupled with missing a game, it's unlikely Dak will get very many MVP votes unless he has a huge finish to the year and guys like Brady have historic meltdowns.
10. Lamar Jackson, QB-Baltimore
Passing: 2865 Yards, 16 TDs/13 INTs (11 games)
Rushing: 132 Att 762 Yds, 2 TDs
Lamar is always in the conversation for MVP due to his insane ability to rush the ball with incredible effectiveness. This season Jackson once again leads QBs in rushing but he hasn't had the scoring success of recent years that made him so dangerous. Missing a game to illness and having a TD/INT ration of damn near 1:1 (obviously a career worst) will keep Lamar out of the running in 2021.
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