The Cowboys' new coach Mike McCarthy had Dak Prescott putting up top-5 QB numbers the first five weeks of the 2020 season, bolstered by a healthy offensive line, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and powerhouse RB Zeke Elliott. Now that the band is back together and healthy, they have Super Bowl aspirations. Can Dak Prescott give your fantasy team Super Bowl aspirations as well?
Prescott, selected out of Mississippi State in the fourth round of the 2016 NFL draft, has been a very solid fantasy option since taking over for Tony Romo his rookie year. Early on, his value centered on his red-zone rushing ability and the rest was primarily throwing to Zeke Elliott. Under McCarthy however, the Cowboys offense profiles to hinge on versatility, and since all production flows through the QB, Prescott saw a huge boost in 2020.
Before his season-ending injury, Prescott amassed 1800 passing yards, 9 touchdowns, and also rushed for 3 touchdowns on the ground. It's dangerous to merely extrapolate that for a full season, but since it's the data we have to work with, here goes: fully healthy, Prescott would have posted a 480-of-710, 5700 passing yards with 30 TDs and another 10 rushing TDs on the ground. Obviously that's a crazy number of pass attempts and yards, but it does show us that even with significant regression after the first five weeks, Prescott would have a stellar fantasy season. Even if you shave off 1000 passing yards and keep his touchdowns totals in the respectable region he was projecting, Prescott still would have finished as the overall QB1 ahead of Josh Allen, who scored nearly 50 times on the year.
Until last year, Prescott never missed significant time due to injury so we should't be labeling him as injury prone. Additionally, we saw several factors at play in 2020 that will absolutely continue this season and keep Prescott's production level high. Amari Cooper has always been an elite wideout, but the addition of CeeDee Lamb out of Clemson maximized the offense's potential by putting an another insane mismatch on the field: the defense can't cover everybody. Add in young tight end Blake Jarwin, shifty slot receiver Michael Gallup (shoutout to the CSU Ram) and the ever-dominant Zeke Elliott out of the backfield and you have a healthy supply of weapons at the Dallas QB's disposal. With McCarthy at the reins, we know the play calling will be consistent, and 5000 passing yards is not out of the question for Prescott considering the Dallas defense is still fairly porous and will need some 4th-quarter sparks from the offense to win games.
By now you probably aren't surprised to find that I have Dak Prescott ranked as my QB1 for 2021. I think it's common to place him in the QB5-QB10 argument, but I think that's way too low for a guy with the same opportunities as Mahomes and Allen yet he plays on a team that doesn't have nearly the quality of defense those guys do. The same argument can be made for why I have Kyler Murray so highly: he will be playing from behind or struggling to maintain leads late in games. Pedal to the metal for 60 minutes, where the Bills and Chiefs do not have to ask that of their offenses. In those late scoring drives, that's where fantasy QBs erupt in their weekly value.
Currently Prescott is being drafted as the QB5/QB7, generally off the board in the fifth round. With people taking Mahomes as early as the second and Allen shortly after, Prescott has ridiculous value at his current ADP. I'm more than comfortable watching Mahomes/Allen/Murray/Jackson leave the board in the early rounds while I stack positional talent and swoop Prescott in the fourth round, where someone is inevitably drafting Kyle Pitts or (ugh) Mike Evans. Draft Dak Prescott. He will win you your league if you draft solid players in the early rounds around him.
Comments