Player-by-player breakdown of the top 36 ranked WRs.
1. Tyreek Hill, Kansas City Chiefs
Hill is a pretty safe bet as the WR1 in PPR/Half PPR formats, and his TD ceiling puts him up there even in standard leagues. Much like his teammate Travis Kelce, Hill is in on an offense that didn’t really change much since last season except for losing Damian Williams and Sammy Watkins, whom they didn't replace, meaning the Chiefs are quite comfortable abusing the duo. Improving the offensive line means more time in the pocket for Mahomes (though the camp injury to Duvernay-Tardif needs to be monitored), and that means more time to create space for the shifty Hill. Put it in perspective, if you take away the points from Hill’s 15 TDs in 2020, he still would have finished as the WR15. If the Chiefs and Mahomes are to live up to the projections they have been consistently living up to, we have no reason to think Hill will have anything less than a top 3 WR season if healthy all season.
2. DeAndre Hopkins, Arizona Cardinals
Hopkins is the WR2 for me this season though it’s a close debate between several guys. One thing history shows us is that the projected top WRs, if in similar situations as the previous year, finish as a top 10 fantasy WR at about a 90% rate. Hopkins is on a team that added some WR help, but overall is still going to rely on him for the workload (and Kyler Murray’s bailout option). Hopkins is one of the best 50/50 ball receivers in the game, and the solidity of his situation puts him above Adams and others in my rankings. Hopkins only had 6 touchdowns in 2020, and if that number lands in the double digits, he is a sure fire second WR off the board.
3. AJ Brown, Tennessee Titans
AJ Brown has been stellar when on the field in the Tennesse offense. With Derrick Henry dominating the focus of the defense, Brown has been able to find gaps in coverage and exploit the weaknesses. With the addition of Julio Jones to the team, many analysts are fading Brown in their rankings. I did the opposite and elevated him all the way to #3; with Jones on the field, he will command a lot more respect from defenses than Corey Davis ever did, thus making separation even easier for the route running master. Need more proof this could work after adding Jones? Take a look at Calvin Ridley's numbers when playing opposite Julio. If he can stay healthy for a full season, Brown will see a target share to warrant a top-5 WR week in and week out.
4. Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills
Pretty much everyone missed on Diggs last year. He was elite, but went to a run heavy team with a young, bull-running QB, and it was impossible to predict that he would see so many targets (166) in that offense. But Allen progressed immensely, and his deep-ball accuracy to Diggs was off the charts. The Bills added Emmanuel Sanders, and certainly want to spread the ball a little more than they did in 2020, so Diggs may not see the volume he did last year. Allen is always a threat to steal red zone targets from WRs and RBs and take the ball in himself, so that also limits Diggs in certain areas, but if that team is healthy they are making another Super Bowl run and Diggs will be a large factor if they succeed.
5. Devante Adams, Green Bay Packers
Adams had a phenomenal year in 2020 with MVP Aaron Rodgers, and many experts have him ranked as their first WR off the board. Now that we know the Rodgers situation is cleared up for 2021, Adams certainly has WR1 capabilities, but…the success the Packers offense had last year in almost every category was a statistical anomaly. Even if they were to have another really good year, it’s doubtful Rodgers, Adams, Jones, and Tonyan ALL have the ridiculous efficiency they had in 2020 (especially in the red zone). Even predicting a little natural regression, the talent of Adams cannot be denied and he has the potential to finish the year as the WR1 if the GB offense maintains it's pass-heavy tendencies.
6. CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys
I think we see Lamb truly take over the WR1 spot in Dallas this season. With a healthy Dak, their offense is set to be one of the best in the league, and while I think Amari Cooper will still be very relevant, Lamb is the one I project to blow the lid off the fantasy season. Cooper and Lamb had respectable years in 2020 with Dalton and a myriad of others in Prescott’s absence, but with the band back together Lamb is set to have the breakout year he was projected to have, but a year later.
7. DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Metcalf is an easy guy to toss in the top 12. His physicality is crazy and despite doubts about his technical skills coming out of Ole Miss, he hasn’t had a problem blowing the lid off the NFL since being drafted in the first round. He has close to Tyreek Hill speed but is built like a linebacker. Seattle is trying to beef up their run game and not have Russell Wilson running for his life again this year, which could mean less volume overall for the Seahawks wideouts (Metcalf and Lockett were both top 10 fantasy WRs last year). If it does though, the aging Lockett stands to be the one to see the decrease in volume, and a more comfortable Wilson means more scoring opportunities for everyone. Metcalf will have a great year on a Seattle team that could find itself playing from behind more than it would like in an increasingly tougher division, and that means throwing the ball.
8. Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Justin Jefferson broke a lot of rookie receiving records in 2020, coming out of LSU and immediately making a huge impact on the Vikings offense. I don’t know if he will have 1400 yards on 88 catches this season, but I expect the catches to remain similar or increase, and his 7 touchdowns most likely will increase to average out any loss in YPC. Theilen had 74 catches last year, but 14 touchdowns, so if Jefferson can score a very attainable 10-12 touchdowns he will be a top 12 WR you can snag in the second round.
9. Keenan Allen, Los Angeles Chargers
Allen had a very productive year with rookie QB Justin Herbert in 2020, and looks to see that production continue as the Chargers try to make a playoff run. Los Angeles lost pass-catching tight end Hunter Henry in the off-season, which means the plan is to rollout Allen and Mike Williams with Austin Ekeler as their main targets. As long as Herbert doesn't hit the second-season wall that so many young QBs experience, Allen is a safe bet to compete as top-12 WR every week due to his ability to get open in the end zone.
10. Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs offense under Tom Brady came into its own during the second half of the season in 2020, and most expect that to continue. Aging Mike Evans didn’t necessarily show a decline on the stat sheet, but he had a multitude of appearances where he saw a limited target share and he just happened to score on those targets so it looked okay on the scoreboard. Godwin is clearly the WR1 on this team, and I expect Antonio Brown to usurp Evans' role from a fantasy standpoint fairly quickly in 2021. That leaves the very talented Godwin to shine as the main target on a Brady-led offense that may see some regression, but he is situated to be the most insulated from it.
11. Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
I'll keep saying it, I have very high predictions for the Rams, and while the Achilles injury to RB Cam Akers is a setback for the offense, it means that they will have to rely on the arm of new QB Matt Stafford more. And that was kind of the plan anyways, run the ball and make the throws count. Woods has shown he is one of the most talented guys in the league. He put up 90 catches with the revolving door of QBs last season, the best of whom was an injured Jared Goff, and with only 6 TDs there is room to see that ceiling skyrocket with the massive upgrade at the QB position. Cooper Kupp is also competing for targets, but much like the TB or Dallas situation last year, I think it's possible for both receivers to flourish.
12. Calvin Ridley, Atlanta Falcons
As with most of my early rankings, the 12th spot is up for contention and I am begrudgingly putting Ridley in my top 12. I love the guy's talent, and his production has been consistently off the charts. There are factors at work there: Matt Ryan still has had some zip in his arm over the last few years, and the Falcons largely have had no run game or defense to speak of. Several of those factors look to continue in 2021, though my main concern is the regression of Matt Ryan and the effect that will have on the passing game. While they traded away Julio, they drafted Kyle Pitts at 4th overall, and if Pitts is going to succeed like projected he will eat up a lot of those targets. I just don't know if Ridley will have the opportunity each week to be a top-12 WR, especially without Julio drawing coverage, but until we see otherwise he is worth a shot as the WR1 on your team based on last year's production alone.
13. Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team
The addition of Curtis Samuel might hurt McLaurin's target share, but also might make those targets more valuable, and we all know incoming QB Ryan Fitzpatrick likes to huck the ball. The Football Team doesn't score a lot, but when they do, McLaurin is usually involved in some way.
14. Allen Robinson II, Chicago Bears
Robinson always seems to produce regardless of his situations (when healthy). Andy Dalton showed he can produce decent numbers for WRs in Dallas, and if the switch to Fields happens, Robinson will likely see a lot of targets from the young QB but how accurate or wise those throws are remains to be seen.
15. Amari Cooper, Dallas Cowboys
Most analysts have my Lamb/Cooper rankings swapped. I think both will be effective on a pass heavy team, so take one or both if you have the chance, but I think this is Cooper's ceiling and comparatively I consider it Lamb's floor.
16. Diontae Johnson, Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers don't want to throw the ball as much as they did last year, as evidenced by drafting Alabama RB Najee Harris in the first round. Big Ben is showing signs of aging, but not enough to warrant fading the Steeler's clear #1 WR too much, if anything it's Juju who stands to see the fantasy falloff.
17. Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
Kupp is an amazing talent that figures to put up monster numbers with Matt Stafford. Woods is the #1, but Kupp will see enough action to compete with him for fantasy leader on the team each week.
18. Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Regardless of Bridgewater or Lock, Sutton's style fits with either, and fully healthy he has shown he can put up Pro-Bowl numbers even if the Broncos stink.
19. Tee Higgins, Cincinnati Bengals
With Burrow, Higgins was putting up insane numbers last season right along side of Tyler Boyd. With rookie Chase added to the mix, Boyd stands to see the falloff while Higgins and Chase shoulder the majority of the load.
20. Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay Bucanneers
Brown is going to take over the Mike Evans role despite currently being the WR3 on the team, his target share and TDs through the end of the 2020 season and playoffs are the evidence, and it will surprise people in 2021. His draft value right now is crazy. Let's hope Brady can keep him out of trouble off the field.
21. Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
Honestly this could be a little low for Golladay, but the Giants offense doesn't historically produce great WRs under Daniel Jones. With a healthy Barkley (eventually) back, the opportunities for the free agent WR could be pretty high if the Giants can meet their improved expectations.
22. DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers
I usually can't put a Sam Darnold receiver in the top 24, but DJ Moore has shown consistent improvement regardless of QB play, and the staff clearly wants to feature him more with the new QB. His talent alone makes him worth rostering, just not sure about the ADP he is costing, when Robby Anderson is available way later and may see similar production.
23. Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Obviously predicting some regression here, but this is definitely his floor, and with way the Seahawks offense finished in 2020, I feel waaaay more comfortable drafting at floors than ceilings.
24. Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are relying on Hardman to achieve some consistency this season, and while the presence of Kelce, Hill, and CEH limit his red zone opportunities, Hardman can blow the top off defenses and gives you a chance for game-breaking plays week in and week out while the defense focuses on the multitude of other Pro-Bowl threats on the KC offense.
25. DJ Chark, Jacksonville Jaguars
Rookie QBs generally don't produce great WR fantasy numbers, but Lawrence is no regular prospect. With Shenault's injury proclivity I like Chark to emerge as the guy who sees the most targets, especially in the red zone where it matters.
26. Julio Jones, Tennessee Titans
Julio isn't the same Julio, but will be featured heavily in a playoff-bound offense, and despite disagreeing with the target share I think he is being projected, I think his red zone opportunities will make up for that and warrant a flex start. His ADP is a little higher than I am comfortable with.
27. Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers offense could be a conundrum this year, but whether its Jimmy G or the rookie Lance, Aiyuk has the talent to contend as a top 24 WR each week easily. His injury history, and the presence of a run heavy, George Kittle heavy offense limits his ceiling for me.
28. Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers
I think reuniting Robby with his old QB Darnold might be super beneficial for the WR, and take away from the production of DJ Moore (or even it out at least), so I wouldn't be surprised if Anderson finishes above Moore in fantasy again in 2021.
29. Odell Beckham Jr, Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns are not a team that produces superstars at the wide receiver position in fantasy. OBJ has been a continuous disappointment between injury and lack of production, but he is still an elite talent and the WR1 on that team. If you can get him at a value he is a no-brainer.
30. Jerry Juedy, Denver Broncos
Juedy had some drop issues his rookie season, but especially if Bridgewater is the QB, his target share will be immense in an offense forced to play from behind most likely. I expect a breakout year 2 from the young wideout.
31. Jamar Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
Chase was drafted highly in lieu of taking a generational offensive lineman and a variety of other options, meaning Joe Burrow had a large say in getting his college teammate on the roster. I don't expect a Justin Jefferson year from him, but his ceiling is crazy high in the Bengals offense.
32. Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers
Williams has been plagued with injury throughout his young career, but if healthy he is an under-the-radar breakout candidate on the Chargers offense that relies on throwing the ball.
33. Russell Gage, Atlanta Falcons
In the absence of Julio Jones, Gage is the clear #2, though will see rookie Pitts eat up a lot of that target advantage the veteran frees up. Also not sure about Ryan's arm going into 2021, but the volume will be there to make Gage a flex option while defenses focus on Ridley and Pitts.
34. Curtis Samuel, Washington Football Team
There are already injury concerns for Samuel entering training camp, but the young receiver has a skill set that will enable him to plug-and-play with QB Ryan Fitzpatrick even if some training time is missed. Keep an eye on his availability for week 1, but Samuel is a high-end flex option weekly when healthy.
35. Tre'Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints
Someone has to take the volume left by Michael Thomas missing the first eight weeks or so, and Smith looks to be the one to do it. Despite being overshadowed by Kamara, Thomas, and others in the Brees offense, Smith stands to finally have some semblance of a breakout year, even if it is just for the first eight weeks of the season.
36. Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings
If we are predicting an amazing year from Cook and Jefferson, but not an amazing year for Cousins, something's got to give, and I think it will be Theilen's touchdowns. He will still be an active part of the offense, though Cook and young TE Irv Smith Jr will probably eat into the red-zone production he has enjoyed as of late.
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