What you need to know about the tight ends before your fantasy draft!
The Tight End Conundrum
With Tight Ends, there are only a few (regardless of their skill) who play on offenses, and with QBs, that feed the ball to them on a consistent enough basis to make them fantasy stars week in and week out. After some study, we know that there will be three tight ends off the board by round four, and with good reason. Beyond that, there are a lot of variables that factor into how effective a tight end will be in any given situation. After the top three, we will delve into our second-tier options, and finally rank the best of the rest, evaluating upside on whether these guys are worth drafting or rather, wait for the waiver wire. This analysis assumes a 12-team competitive league, with 1TE and TE eligible at Flex position. We are looking at the top 24 Tight Ends for the 2021 season, assuming each team will draft a starter and (potentially) a backup tight end.
"The Big Three"
The no-brainers. The guys you sweat about drafting in the early rounds when there are still mega up-side position players on the board, or you are staring at an empty QB spot but might pass because this guy is there. These are the three guys that you can reliably draft in the critical rounds and see production. And regardless of how they perform, you can rely on the fact that if you are planning on waiting to take a tight end til after round five…you won’t be getting one of these guys.
1. Travis Kelce
Kansas City Chiefs
There is some debate amongst fantasy football gurus about the specific ranking of the Big Three, and while arguments can be made for some other guys, history and cold hard facts cannot be ignored: Kelce led the league once again in fantasy points among TEs, he caught over 100 balls, and he plays with the most prolific QB on the most prolific offense in the NFL. You know he will get targets. His supreme blocking ability allows him to be on the field for virtually any play called, and with Mahomes’ affinity for calling audibles out of run plays, Kelce sees the benefit of what would be ambulance balls to anyone of smaller stature. Travis Kelce is my bona fide number one tight end entering the 2021 Fantasy draft, and the only tight end consistently being taken in the first two rounds of the draft.
2. Darren Waller
Las Vegas Raiders
The second tight end off the board for me is Darren Waller. Second in fantasy points last year, he was the only tight end to even approach the monster numbers of Kelce, and in PPR formats he damn near caught him, scoring over 100 more points on the season than the 3rd place TE. He also posted a 17pt average per game, a full 2 points per game higher than Kittle, and five points higher than the average for fourth place. Five points! How many fantasy games did you lose by less than 5 points? Last year this guy gave you an immediate 5pt advantage against pretty much anyone your opponent had in that slot, any week of the season. Not only is he a physical marvel with great hands and crazy speed for a guy that large, he also plays in an offense that lends itself to production from the tight end spot: Raiders play fast, and if the deep routes are covered, or the box is stacked against the run, Derek Carr is more than comfortable moving the chains with his most reliable target. Waller also played in all 16 contests last year, which is extremely valuable for a position where there isn’t a lot of depth on the waiver wire if someone gets hurt.
3. George Kittle
San Francisco 49ers
Not a lot needs to be said here, as with Kelce, whom he will spend the rest of his days being compared to. And with good reason, there is more than one similarity between the two. The ones that matter to fantasy are stellar for Kittle, with his downs played, targets, receptions, and overall fantasy points per game in 2020 putting him solidly in 3rd behind Waller and Kelce. His campaign was cut short to just 8 games, but we can comfortably extrapolate those numbers and see that a full season would have been more than impressive. Assuming he stays healthy, (the injury bug is very real in San Francisco), Kittle provides you with an every-down TE who has managed to put up consistent numbers regardless of which QB is lining up under center. This is great news considering that he is a favorite target of Jimmy G, but if Trey Lance takes over the reigns, historically TEs benefit from being a rookie’s safety blanket. On top of that, Lance profiles as new-age mobile QB, and look at the production level of TEs playing with scramblers: Mark Andrews with Lamar, Zach Ertz a few years back, Kelce and Mahomes…the upside is insane no matter how the cards fall in San Francisco.
The Starters (#4-#12)
4. Mark Andrews
Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews entered the 2020 season with expectations to compete with Kelce and Kittle for the number one TE spot, based on his 10-TD 2019 performance that catapulted him to top-5 fantasy TE status. Missing two games, and an overall regression of the Ravens offense, made Andrews fall short of that “mark”, though if you assume even mundane performances in the two games he missed; he would be the clear 2020 TE3. The scrambling style of Lamar Jackson and the RPO threat lends to extra opportunities for a large man running a seam or crossing route, and when a play breaks down, he has been Jackson’s bailout. His 7 TDs last year were middle of the pack, but as we see teams keying in on the redzone scramble by Jackson, Andrews stands to be on the receiving end of a lot of heavy-traffic bullet passes in the end zone. The Ravens didn’t land Julio Jones in free agency, but they did draft Rashad Bateman and added Sammy Watkins to their mix of speedsters that includes Hollywood Brown. The Ravens were the most run-heavy offense in the NFL in 2020, and most likely will again in 2021, which doesn’t bode well for the WRs but they also added some offensive line help by signing former first round guard Kevin Zeitler. Anything that gives Jackson more time in the pocket, and more weapons to draw coverage away from Andrews, can only bolster his value to fantasy owners.
5. TJ Hockenson
Detroit Lions
TJ Hockenson is probably the quietest fantasy stud in the game. In PPR leagues, Hock was the #5 TE in 2020, and his 11 PPG average puts him squarely in 5th, tied with the likes of breakout stars Robert Tonyan and Logan Thomas. The thing about TJ is, unlike most TEs, he doesn’t have breakout games. His 11 pt average is exactly that, he doesn’t have 3 weeks of 4 pt games and then bust a 28pt day, he gets you 11 points pretty consistently . And that reliability is not to be taken for granted in fantasy football. Outside of the guys listed above, TJ Hockenson gives you the best chance at stability at your TE position, and he will most likely be available in the 5th round. In many projections, you see him falling due to the rising stock in TEs such as the afore mentioned Thomas and rookie Kyle Pitts. Also, there is uncertainty now that Stafford is gone and Detroit’s new QB is the wildly inconsistent Jared Goff. One thing that is consistent about Goff though: He loves his TEs. Not to mention Detroit didn’t even attempt to replace Kenny Golladay, which leaves Hockenson as the only reliable receiving target for Goff that’s out there. His situation in Detroit didn’t get better…but it didn’t get worse, and he has been given lemons and making lemonade out there for fantasy owners since he was drafted. No reason it should stop now.
6. Kyle Pitts
Atlanta Falcons
The upside is there. Matt Ryan still has some zip in his arm. The Falcons traded Julio, lending you to believe they are opening up receiving targets for their 4th overall pick. Hayden Hurst was a top 10 fantasy tight end last year, which means the receptions are there to be had. That being said, the hype around Pitts in fantasy football is a little ridiculous. If Pitts could have the best rookie year for a tight end EVER (Mike Ditka, 1027yds, 12 TDs in 1961) he would most likely finish as the TE3-TE4. And that’s assuming he has the greatest season by a rookie tight end IN HISTORY. I think a very good projection would be the rookie season Evan Engram had in 2017, 64-722-6. That was on a bad New York Giants team with an aging elite QB, and that’s the exact situation Pitts finds himself in. 700 yards and 6 touchdowns is a good year for a tight end, especially a rookie one. We can’t forget several other factors here: The Atlanta Falcons are not very good. The red zone opportunities for a tight end aren’t optimal, as they have no running game and no offensive line to protect their quickly aging quarterback. The only positive from playing on that offense is that they are so bad, there might be garbage yards for a tight end in the fourth quarter. Also, Hayden Hurst is still there, and very talented. Having two tight ends on the field rarely means they both do well, or that all targets go to one end. Usually they split the success and create a fantasy nightmare of not knowing which one to trust week to week, largely because we don’t know what the defense will key in on til the game starts. There are reputable fantasy writers saying that if the” Big 3” are off the board, they are taking Pitts immediately, even as early as the fourth round. All I’m saying is, it would be unrealistic to expect much more than what Hurst did last year for Pitt’s rookie season. And Hurst’s production was enough to be a top 10 PPR TE, so Pitts could very well be a viable TE1 option, but I certainly wouldn’t be drafting Pitts in the mid rounds when you can most likely get similar production from Tonyan or Higbee with your last pick. Pitts could finish as the TE4 on the year over Andrews and Hockenson, but that could translate into only a 1 or 2 point advantage each week over later round guys like Noah Fant and Logan Thomas. Meter your expectations.
7. Tyler Higbee
Los Angeles Rams
I’m always high on Tyler Higbee, and he always meets expectations but never exceeds them as I foolishly hope. His 44-521-5 line was good enough for the TE17 spot in 15 games, though it must be mentioned he did have a 3-TD, 28pt performance week 2 against the Eagles, and the only other weeks he broke double digits in full PPR formats were the two weeks he scored his other two TDs. His 11.8 YPC was top 10 among TEs with 30 receptions or more (exactly 10th), and he did have pretty much an exact target and reception totals as his TE2, Gerald Everett. With Everett removed from the situation and the quality of QB play expected to be raised with the addition of Matthew Stafford, I think we can expect to see Higbee shine. I mean, if there was ever a situation to shine, it’s this one, he’s the clear TE1 on a team with less receiving threats than they had last year and a massive upgrade at QB. On a team whose defense got them to the playoffs, I think the Rams have a dark-horse super bowl shot in 2021 and Higbee could be a benefactor. Brycen Hopkins will be getting some looks as well, but if healthy Higbee stands to see one of the largest leaps in fantasy from 2020 to 2021.
8. Mike Gesicki
Miami Dolphins
There is a lot to like about what the Dolphins have been doing with their offense, especially as it pertains to the passing game. There won’t be any Fitzmagic shenanigans, this year it is 100% Tua (and he knows knows the WHOLE playbook this time, according to Tua himself). This is wonderful news for Mike Gesicki, as the veteran Fitzpatrick has a tendency to test his arm strength rather than taking the checkdown. As evidenced by his stat line last year, Gesicki’s production ramped up after Tua came in as the full time starter. The addition of Jaylen Waddle in the draft only adds more weapons for the young QB, and Gesicki provides an experienced safety blanket for when growing pains rear their ugly head. If Gesicki could post top 10 TE numbers last year, bouncing between the stingy Fitz and the inexperienced Tua, we can only assume the same or better from him as we enter the 2021 season. His 13.3 YPC is third amongst TEs with 40+ receptions, and if Miami can move the chains as they hope, Gesicki could see his 6 touchdowns in 2020 eclipse the double digit mark this year.
9. Noah Fant
Denver Broncos
Denver’s young tight end, drafted out of the first round from Iowa (he was TJ Hockenson’s teammate, who was drafted 12 picks ahead of him), has been a source of great debate in the mountain region. His measurables are off the charts and his production is consistent with the early years of many great players of the position. However, the eye test shows that there is more to be had from this guy. His 2020 campaign yielded 62 catches (8th among TEs) and 150 fantasy points, also 8th among TEs. His three touchdowns is what kept him out of being a top 5 tight end, and that was largely due to the inability of Denver to reach the red zone very often. If veteran QB Teddy Bridgewater wins the job, Fant stands to see more targets and red zone opportunities than he did in 2020, but if Lock is named the starter again, the potential for big plays increases exponentially. A revamped backfield with rookie Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon III, along with WRs Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and speedy KJ Hamler, the Denver offense has a lot of competition for touches. Fantasy owners shouldn’t be daunted by this tho; Fant will get his. With the top DBs on the field spread thin covering Denver’s plethora of wideouts, look for Fant to take advantage of mismatches when left covered by slower, less agile linebackers. Also, as bad as Denver’s defense is at covering tight ends, no one else in the AFC West is very good at it either (Kelce and Waller get a chunk of their yearly production from playing games in this division). Fant should be on the mid-round radar as a starting TE with top-5 potential and a floor value of still a top-12 guy. He just needs more touchdowns.
10. Logan Thomas
Washington Football Team
Thomas is an interesting prospect, considering he really hit his stride in the second half of the season with an Alex Smith-led offense that was making a playoff run, and Alex Smith is no longer there. Historically, Alex Smith LOVES tight ends (ever heard of Vernon Davis, or a guy named Travis Kelce…?), and historically, Washington’s new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick does not. See above Gesicki comments. That being said, Thomas’s talent is undeniable, and being the 3rd highest scoring TE thru the last six weeks of the fantasy year in 2020 helped more than a few managers seal their championship victory. Ron Rivera’s plan is to smash the ball with young back Anthony Gibson as much as possible, and pairing Curtis Samuel with Terry McLaurin gives Fitz two speedy deep threats to blow the top off opposing defenses. If the plan works, Logan Thomas stands to benefit from coverage mismatches and increased redzone targets while defenders are forced to focus on the other dangerous position players Washington has acquired. Washington and its young defense are projected to be a wild card team, and if that happens, Thomas figures to be involved heavily in that success.
11. Jonnu Smith
New England Patriots
Jonnu Smith is certainly a polarizing topic in fantasy tight end debates. The Patriots signed him almost immediately when free agency opened up, and they paid him extremely well. Much higher than the offer they brought in Hunter Henry on, much after the fact. Henry is what clouds the waters here though, as a two-headed tight end attack generally doesn't work for fantasy purposes. The New England strategy initially looked to be Henry getting a lot of the targets between the 20s and Smith getting the red zone looks. When Henry hurt his shoulder earlier in training camp however, we saw Josh McDaniels lining Jonnu up all over the field, making explosive plays from the backfield, slot, and even the outside receiver position. From what we have seen in camp, Jonnu will be the clear TE1 on this team that has a bit of uncertainty at the QB position. Cam Newton isn't the best news for tight ends as of late, but if/when the switch to rookie QB Mac Jones is made, we could see some true magic from Smith as he provides a reliable target for a QB without a lot of other receiving options. We should see Jakobi Meyers take over the WR1 role but outside of him, it's clear that Smith and Henry are the plan through the air. With the versatility of Smith (he had a rushing touchdown in 2020), I like his odds to exceed his current value of practically going undrafted.
12. Robert Tonyan
Green Bay Packers
Robert Tonyan came out of nowhere in 2020 and turned the fantasy world on its head with his insane performance. He had less than half the catches and yardage of the top 2 tight ends (Kelce and Waller) but his 11 touchdowns catapulted him into the TE3 spot. Another crazy stat: he had 52 catches, but on 59 targets. That’s 88% catch rate. The closest tight ends to that stat are Tyler Higbee, Darren Waller, and Travis Kelce at 73-74%. Even if Tonyan had the same 52/586 year he had with Rodgers last year, if his TDs drop down to very realistic 3-4 region, you are looking at a TE15-TE20. Aaron Rodgers typically doesn't utilize tight ends, but he sure did last year, and one could argue that Tonyan's efficiency is what opened up the field for Devante Adams and Aaron Jones, especially in the red zone. While you have to think the GB Packers experience some sort of regression in 2021, the only real reason for thinking that is because historically, teams do. No one is very high on Tonyan this year, and that means he is practically going undrafted. But as a late round pick, Tonyan has a much higher ceiling than say Dallas Goedert, who plays on a bad team and has to share looks with Zach Ertz. If you are putting tight end low on your priority list, Tonyan could be the late round steal that solidifies the position for you without costing practically anything.
The Backups (#13-#24)
13. Dallas Goedert
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Goedert clearly took over as the Eagles primary tight end from veteran Zach Ertz last year, and despite the downright awful play of Carson Wentz, Goedert did post a few promising numbers. He missed 5 games, but his 11.4 YPC put him top 10 in starting TEs, and his target share didn’t seem to take a hit once rookie Jalen Hurts took the helm over Goedert’s last three games of the season. In effect, if Goedert played a full season, his stat line would look like 66/700/5, and that would have been good enough for a top 10 fantasy TE. However the main reason Goedert was the 20th overall TE last year, other than missing 5 games, was the lack of touchdowns. And that has a lot to do with the Philadelphia offense, which scored under 20 points in 8 out of its 16 games last year. That’s not a lot of opportunities for anyone to score, let alone a tight end, and Hurts isn’t exactly a model of consistency at this point. If Goedert can stay healthy, and the Philly offense can establish some sort of downfield movement behind the shifty Hurts, Goedert could stand to benefit greatly. The question mark is more on Hurts than on Goedert, some mobile QBs just don’t throw to TEs as much because they tend to run the ball themselves instead of throwing it when flushed out of the pocket. Until we know what type of guy Hurts is, the true value of Goedert will be hard to pinpoint. His floor is fantastic though, my and despite my optimism for his 2021 season he is off the board around the 7th round, and that’s a little rich for my blood.
14. Blake Jarwin
Dallas Cowboys
Blake Jarwin was supposed to have a breakout year with the explosive Cowboys offense in 2020 before a season ending injury in week one. After that, Dalton Shultz put up quite solid numbers in Dallas with over 60 receptions, finishing as the TE11 in PPR formats on the year. If the pedestrian Shultz could achieve those numbers with a mixture of Andy Dalton and some other dudes, the talented Jarwin with a healthy star QB should be poised for that same breakout year, just a year later. I really think we see a healthy Dallas offense blow the top off fantasy production this season, and though the team has plenty of mouths to feed (Zeke, Lamb, Cooper, Gallup, Pollard, and even Shultz will see their share of action), I think the gameplay allows for fantasy relevancy from pretty much all members including the talented young tight end.
15. Evan Engram
New York Giants
A lot of people, myself included, have fallen victim to the Evan Engram hype train that happens around the summer months every year. There is historical data to support it: Tight ends on teams with bad offenses tend to be the only guy open, tight ends with young QBs on bad offenses tend to be the safest target (especially after you’ve thrown a few picks), and Engram is truly a dominant physical specimen at the position. But every year, Engram manages to disappoint, sometimes due to injury to him, and sometimes due to injury to his offensive teammates. And maybe because…the Giants just aren’t very good. There is hope there though, Daniel Jones is looking to be at least adequate at the position, and the return of superstar Saquan Barkley opens Pandora’s box as far as what the Giant’s offense can do in 2021. There is no denying that Engram’s production suffered greatly from the absence of Barkley in 2020. Before Engram himself got hurt in 2019, he was on pace to post a 90/900/7 stat line with Barkley as the main threat to the defense. The Giants did add veteran TE Kyle Rudolph in free agency, but a quick glance at Rudolph’s 2020 production in Minnesota shows that while he may steal some red zone targets from Engram, he isn’t a threat to steal too much fantasy thunder overall. Engram isn’t likely to see 100 targets again, but he also isn’t likely to only have a 60% catch rate as well, so there are points to be gained there. Engram also posted only one touchdown on the season in 2020, on an offense that only scored 25 total. With Daniel Jones progressing at the QB position, Barkley back (hopefully at 100% after the ACL), and the Giants overall trending in the right direction, those touchdown totals can only go up, and Evan Engram is a safe bet to take as a value starting TE in PPR formats in the mid-late rounds.
16. Mo Alie-Cox
Indianapolis Colts
Carson Wentz likes tight ends, and his tend to produce regardless of how well Wentz himself is actually doing. Out of the options in Indy, Alie-Cox is the more athletically versatile, but Doyle will see enough time on the field to make it difficult for Alie-Cox to be a fantasy TE1. The Colts don’t have a ton of receiving threats for their new QB tho, so if a healthy Wentz could return to some semblance of his early days in Philly, Zach Ertz put up some pretty decent numbers back then and Alie-Cox could have some similar results. Alie-Cox isn’t being drafted in most leagues so if you reallly wait on a tight end and are planning on rolling Austin Hooper as your starter, grabbing Alie-Cox is a great high-upside guy to handcuff him with.
17. Jared Cook
Los Angeles Chargers
Jared Cook? Isn’t he really old? Isn’t he that tight end for the Rams…er, Raiders…wait, Saints?…no, Chargers now. Yep, that Jared Cook. Yes, he’s 34 years old, and while he still has some tricks up his sleeve, he isn’t the speedy TE he was earlier in his career in St. Louis (yeah, St. Louis). But let’s not get caught up in that. His hands are as sure as ever, and over the last few seasons while his yardage and targets have decreased, his touchdowns have not. And on a Saints offense that largely ignored the tight end in 2020, he still came up with 7 Tds, second best of his career. First best was 2019, when he caught 9 TDs, so his two highest TD campaigns have been the last two seasons playing with a mixture of an aging Brees and Taysom Hill at QB. But the reason Cook makes my top 24 list of fantasy tight ends has more to do with where he is going than what he has done. The Los Angeles Chargers are poised to be one of the most exciting offenses in football, but they are not a team constructed to blow opponents out: Justin Herbert will be chucking the ball deep into the fourth quarter, win or lose. In 14 games last year Hunter Henry had a 6/613/4 stat line with the rookie QB, and regardless of whether Herbert regresses in his second season or continues to ball out, the tight end position in LA stands to benefit. The Chargers also don’t have a very prolific run game, so any time in fantasy where you can start a receiving player on a pass heavy offense, the upside is enormous. The downside, Cook is 34 years old. There will be some regression, especially with young TE Donald Parham Jr expected to see an increased role as the season progresses.
18. Irv Smith Jr
Minnesota Vikings
For the better part of the last decade, Kyle Rudolph has been a fantasy staple because of the consistency he provided in a world of uncertainty at the tight end position. The style of play in Minnesota has a certain floor for tight ends, and it’s a decent floor. Last year Irv Smith Jr shared the role with the veteran Rudolph, and both ended the season with roughly 30 catches and roughly 300 yards. Smith had the TD advantage with 5 to Rudolph’s one, which propelled Smith Jr to a decent fantasy year despite lackluster yardage totals. Rudolph left Minnesota for New York in free agency, paving the way for the second round Smith to shoulder the majority of the snaps at TE. Even if he absorbs half of Rudolph’s production from a year ago, Smith looks to post a 50/500/7 line, which translates to a fringe top-12 fantasy tight end based on 2020 stats. What makes me think he could rocket higher than that is the situation he is in: Justin Jefferson is the only other passing weapon for Kirk Cousins, and Dalvin Cook can’t punch the ball in every single time, Smith should see more red zone targets than he did in his first two seasons with Minnesota. After Rudolph was injured at the end of 2020, Smith finished the season strong averaging close to 15PPG (including 3 touchdowns) over the last four weeks. The flip side of that is Minnesota primarily wins games when Dalvin Cook is at his best, and an offense that runs on first, second, and third down isn’t conducive to receiving production. However, until Cook can stay healthy on a consistent basis, Irv Smith Jr stands to be a breakout fantasy star over the 2021 season. With an ADP of the 10th round, if you want Smith you have to overspend for him a little, based on my projections.
19. Anthony Firkser
Tennessee Titans
Hear me out. Last season, Firkser was the 26th ranked fantasy TE while playing on a team with Jonnu Smith, who now plays for New England. Firkser had 39 catches, Jonnu had 41. The main fantasy difference is that Firkser had one touchdown, Jonnu had eight. Yes I know, Tennessee is a running team, yes I know they have AJ Brown and they added Julio Jones, but those TE targets aren’t just going to evaporate and Tannehill has shown that he trusts this guy. Even if his targets stay similar but he gets all those Jonnu redzone targets, he would be a top 10 fantasy TE. And I think we will see him do a lot more than just fill a void, I’m expecting a 60/700/8 line and that’s enough to be a full time starter on any team. Let’s not forget, Jonnu Smith is a great tight end, but the man can’t block, nor was he asked to. Firkser can get down and dirty in the trenches for Derrick Henry, but proved he can also be a viable threat in the pass game. A win-now team like Tenneessee wouldn’t have let Jonnu walk unless they knew they had a bona fide replacement waiting in the wings, and based on his 2020 audition tape, don’t be surprised when the guy pops up on stat sheets each week.
20. Rob Gronkowski
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The man, the myth, the legend. Gronk always tends to get overdrafted, and this year will probably be no exception. Despite having only 45 receptions, Gronk’s stellar 13.8 YPC and 7 touchdowns pushed him into the top 10 fantasy tight ends of 2020. And it doesn’t make sense. Other than Brady’s affinity for him, Gronk should not be on this list. The Bucs have a solid two-headed run game, last year they had Mike Evans-Chris Godwin-Scottie Miller-Antonio Brown, and not to mention, they have two very good tight ends in OJ Howard and Cameron Brate already on the roster. No shortage of weapons to funnel the ball to. But TB12 is TB12, and Gronk is Gronk, and here we are. At this tier, its far-fetched to expect to amass points from a tight end based on yards. These guys, it’s all about touchdowns, and if Gronk only has two catches a week, but one of them is a touchdown…he should probably be on your team, at least as an option.
21. Hunter Henry
New England Patriots
Both Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry were fantasy starting TEs on their previous teams. Hunter Henry was coming off an injury and playing for a rookie QB, something that according to the stats, never goes well for the tight end. However, Herbert was no ordinary rookie, and is the ONLY rookie QB since 2001 to produce a WR1 (Keenan Allen), and while he was at it, Hunter Henry came in as the TE12 in PPR leagues, making Herbert’s rookie campaign that much more impressive. Basically, if Henry can have that kind of a year with a rookie, he should have success anywhere. But now we have to look at the real elephant in the room, the New England offense. They didn’t care to add any receiving talent, so Jonnu and Henry stand to both see their share of targets…but it’s a double-edged sword. Neither of them are going to be 1000 yard receivers so yardage loses relevance in the big picture here, it’s about the red zone targets. Should one of them go down to injury, the other is probably a must-start, but with both on the field in a rush first offense, the opportunities seem risky at best for Henry since the Patriots have made it clear they value Smith as the TE1 and Henry has already dealt with a shoulder injury since camp began.
22. Eric Ebron
Pittsburgh Steelers
Eric Ebron was clearly not the answer at tight end for the Steelers last year. Basically allergic to blocking and showing a continuing tendency for dropping the ball, the Steelers ended up signing some journeymen mid-season to help in the ground game, which didn’t help Ebron’s field time. He still had the eighth most targets of any tight ends in 2020, a 10YPC average, and 5 touchdowns, making him the TE14 in PPR leagues, but the main issue here is that with one year left on a prove-it deal, the Steelers were so unimpressed with Ebron’s versatility they spent a second round pick in a stacked draft on Pat Freiermuth, tight end out of Penn State. While rookie tight ends generally don’t have an immediate impact on the passing game, with a QB like Big Ben, he will throw to the open guy. Freiermuth’s blocking ability could lead to extra receiving targets for Ebron, but overall my analysis is that no matter how it goes down, there are just too many receiving threats on the Steelers to expect Ebron to be of any value as far as actually drafting him goes.
23. Gerald Everett
Seattle Seahawks
Gerald Everett spent 2020 as the TE2 in Los Angeles behind Tyler Higbee, though the two had virtually the same targets and receptions, mainly because Higbee was the clear red zone favorite for Jared Goff. Everett will be sharing duties with Will Dissly in Seattle, though if 2020 is any indication, Dissly won’t be much of a threat considering his lack of production has a lot to do with why Everett was brought over in the first place. Russell Wilson is an elite QB who likes to throw the ball downfield and has the weapons to do so when he isn’t running for his life. The result is that there will be games where the tight end position is targeted a ton and then games where Wilson doesn’t look their way at all. That could change with the addition of Everett though.
24. Dan Arnold
Carolina Panthers
Dan Arnold was owned in about 2% of fantasy leagues last year, mainly because he only had 31 catches and 4 touchdowns playing in a Panthers offense without Christian McCaffrey. After acquiring Sam Darnold and hopefully having a 100% McCaffery for a whole season, Arnold could see increased opportunities. A bright spot was his 14.1 YPC, which was 1st among tight ends with 30 receptions or more. If he can continue to get open downfield in a more productive Carolina offense, we could see his overall targets and touchdown opportunites ramp up to a fantasy-relevant level. I'm on the camp that Zach Ertz will likely be traded before the season starts, and to Carolina, so if that proves true I'd probably swap Ertz and Arnold in my rankings. Realistically tho, no Ertz, we should be expecting a 40-500-5 type line, making him worth a look for a TE2 if you want to roster one on your bench with a very late pick.
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