Short version of the 2021 RB Rankings.
My rankings and profiles assume a 12-team, full PPR format competitive league.
ADP = Average Draft Position
Draft Value Key: B is Meets Expectations For ADP
Tier-1 RBs (#1-#12)
1. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey offers the highest upside of the top 5 RBs, he seems to be impervious to the bad offenses he plays on, and in a PPR format he has three touchdown potential week in and week out. Out of the RBs coming off injury in 2020 he had the least severe injury and the most time to recover so injury risk is low.
ADP: 1st (RB1)
Draft Value: A+
2. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry has shown nothing but consistency throughout his college and NFL career. A lot of guys are consistent, but Henry is consistently...off the charts amazing. Based on his workload, which shows no signs of slowing down, Henry is my #2 RB.
ADP: 5th (RB5)
Draft Value: A+
3. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
You can make the argument that Dalvin Cook is the clear #2 and even the #1 RB for 2021 based on projections. His target share is off the charts; but my gut tells me you aren't getting a full season's worth out of Cook. And if the guy goes down or misses a few games down the stretch of the fantasy playoffs...I don't know if I can hitch my championship wagon to Cook as reliably as CMC or Henry. Otherwise he is a no-brainer pick.
ADP: 2nd (RB2)
Draft Value: A+
4. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is the Saint's utility knife since the day he was drafted, helping hide the fact that an aging Drew Brees couldn't huck the ball very far anymore. The only reason he isn't above Cook or the others is the fact that the New Orleans offense might not be very good this year, and that could limit Kamara's scoring chances.
ADP: 3rd (RB3)
Draft Value: A+
5. Joe Mixon, Cincinatti Bengals
Hey there! What's Joe Mixon doing up here? Well, let me tell you. Before that injury (and yes, he does have an injury history...but who doesn't) Mixon was getting a workload putting him on pace for a fantasy RB5 finish. I have very high projections for the Bengals this year, and that only happens if Joe Mixon is on the field.
ADP: 24th (RB12)
Draft Value: A++
6. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Zeke has been a fantasy first round staple since he was drafted by the Cowboys fourth overall in 2016. He is also the only RB since 2016 to finish as a top-12 RB in fantasy every season. During the three games Dak played, Elliott was the fantasy RB-3. While Zeke is probably not going to be an overall RB-1 on the year, he does have the potential to be a top-5 RB week to week.
ADP: 6th (RB6)
Draft Value: A+
7. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
With the return of Rodgers to the team, Jones can again be considered a top RB in fantasy. The fantastic ability of the MVP QB opens up options in the run and short pass game that few other RBs enjoy, and with letting versatile RB Jamal Williams go in free agency, the Packers are relying on Jones to see a massive workload in the 2021 season.
ADP: 14th (RB9)
Draft Value: A
8. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
Everyone from here on down has some questions, they don't have as clear a path to being a potential RB-1 on the season as the CMCs, Barkleys, and Elliotts. If you are taking Chubb in the first round you can bank on him for solid weekly production with the breakout potential to lead the week in scoring, on an offense that primarily scores on the ground.
ADP: 17th (RB10)
Draft Value: A+
9. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Big Ben threw the ball close to 700 times last year, and sadly that's not an exaggeration. Mike Tomlin has no interest in doing that again, and the Steelers have a history of taking rookie RBs and making them fantasy superstars right off the bat. Me projecting him as a top-10 fantasy RB? Bold, but might be undervaluing him actually.
ADP: 31st (RB15)
Draft Value: A++
10. David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
David Montgomery, as a rookie, came out of nowhere and blew fantasy owners out of the water with his 2020 campaign. Finishing as the RB-4 (!) on a Chicago offense that really had no QB play to speak of, Montgomery will do well with Dalton under center, but if they make the switch to Fields, he might lose some rushing and red-zone opportunities. Montgomery still stands to see a giant workload regardless of who is under center.
ADP: 45th (RB19)
Draft Value: A++
11. Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, Kansas City Chiefs
If you do the breakdown, CEH had similar carries to Nick Chubb and similar targets as Jonathan Taylor, both valued above him. The KC offense is top 3 in the league, and the only reason CEH was the RB-22 last year was his lack of scoring. In his second year with Mahomes and a less crowded backfield he is an RB1 in PPR formats.
ADP: 30th (RB14)
Draft Value: A++
12. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
I'm kind of begrudgingly putting Taylor in my top 12 RBs. Taylor really came into his own the second half of the season but Frank Reich LOVES a crowded backfield, which tells us they don't love Taylor in every situation. That being said, Taylor is the dominant RB in a committee that will see lots of opportunities and history shows us these guys have a solid floor. There is a solid chance for RB-5 upside if his touchdowns match the touches.
ADP: 11th (RB8)
Draft Value: A
Tier-2 RBs (#13-#24)
13. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
In a full PPR format, Ekeler will be a solid high end RB2 with double-digit touchdown potential each week if healthy. Small guys tend to miss time though, so factor th.at into your decision with Ekeler. Perhaps a Kelley handcuff later is a smart move.
ADP: 10th (RB7)
Draft Value: B+
14. Saquan Barkley, New York Giants
Barkley was a sure-fire top-5 fantasy pick until the reports came out from Barkley himself that he is being eased back into playing and he may not even be ready for week one. The Giants certainly don't want to lose Barkley to injury again, so if they are playing the long game, fantasy owners have to as well. Barkley has lots of value but will be hard to rely on as an RB1 until we see how the situation shakes out.
ADP: 7th (RB6)
Draft Value: C
15. Antonio Gibson, Washington Redskins
Gibson came on last year as the clear RB1 in Washington, finishing the fantasy season as the RB-13. He had 200 touches, and we should expect a solid increase based on the comments of Ron Rivera wanting to "use him more", especially if the young back plays a full season.
ADP: 23rd (RB11)
Draft Value: A
16. Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Carson is a favorite RB2 of mine every year. He always seems to fall in drafts to a solid spot where he can be taken without spending too much and he generally exceeds his point projections. If Carson can just stay healthy, he could be a top 12 RB, which is reflected in his ADP.
ADP: 39th (RB17)
Draft Value: A
17. Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
With the Cam Akers season-ending injury, it turned the LA backfield situation on its head, as Akers was projected by many to be a top-10 RB. The Rams may still sign a veteran RB, but all indications are that they really like Henderson. Last season he led the team RBs in fantasy scoring pretty much the whole year until Akers came on strong down the stretch. If Henderson shoulders the Akers workload he could potentially be a top-12 RB in the LA Rams offense.
ADP: 56th (RB22)
Draft Value: A+
18. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
Generally, stay away from Baltimore RBs in the Lamar Jackson era. Dobbins clearly established himself as the RB1 last year, but what does being the RB1 in Lamar Jackson’s offense mean? It means enough to give him a shot as an RB2 with a decent floor and potential to surprise you with some goal line carries each week.
ADP: 42nd (RB18)
Draft Value: B
19. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs has been faded pretty hard by experts, probably because his 2020 production was so up and down. Kenyan Drake means there will be a clear split in duties in the Las Vegas backfield, but we should expect Jacobs to get the majority of the carries and goal line opportunities. If he can get into the end zone at a better clip, Jacobs is a solid RB2 that you can still get for relative value in the draft.
ADP: 51st (RB22)
Draft Value: B+
20. D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
The fact that Swift is all over the board in fantasy mock drafts currently reflects that we really don’t know what to expect from the new Detroit offense. We expect it to be bad, but just aren’t sure how bad, or in which specific areas. Regardless, Swift could see a ton of targets from Goff in addition to a “Lion’s” share of the rushes.
ADP: 33rd (RB16)
Draft Value: B
21. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Sanders is my first player from a “running back by committee” offense. He is the clear RB1 in this committee, and the data shows we can rely on Sanders to outperform the others. Last year he put up killer numbers throughout the fantasy playoffs, despite comparatively limited touches.
ADP: 46th (RB20)
Draft Value: A
22. Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Not so much a committee as a duo, the Denver backfield will be shared between veteran Melvin Gordon III and rookie Javonte Williams. Williams’ ADP is pretty high for a guy I’m not sure will put up RB2 numbers til week 6, but once he does, I’m expecting high end RB2/low RB1 from him if Denver can get into the red zone more.
ADP: 75th (RB27)
Draft Value: A
23. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
This is a pretty big fade from where you would expect to see Kareem Hunt in PPR formats. Here’s my reasoning: last year, despite somehow finishing as the RB-10 on the year, he was largely a disappointment when it mattered. l like him as a low-RB2 but I think this is his ceiling and I don’t like drafting for ceiling at this ADP.
ADP: 62nd (RB25)
Draft Value: B+
24. Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers
The rookie Sermon out of Ohio State going to San Francisco was a popcorn-eating moment for fantasy managers. I’m projecting Sermon to have a low-end RB2 season and currently he is being rated at RB38, meaning you can snag this guy several rounds later than his projected production would indicate.
ADP: 101st (RB36)
Draft Value: A++
Tier 3 RBs (#25-#36) (RB Flex Guys)
25. Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons
There aren't many options for carrying the ball in Atlanta. There are a ton of worries about how far Davis can carry that workload, and just how bad the Falcons offense will be, but the volume is there to warrant a flyer on Davis. ADP: 55th (RB23)
26. Miles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
I really like Myles Gaskin this year. Regardless of whether Tua progresses or not, or if this deep attack works or not, the RBs in the Miami system are getting work, and Gaskin is the clear favorite. ADP: 49th (RB21)
27. Travis Ettienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ettienne should be the workhorse, and his familiarity with Lawrence will lead to an increase in opportunity the other backs aren’t likely to see. I’m definitely taking a flyer on Ettienne for 2021 at his current ADP. ADP: 58th (RB24)
28. Michael Carter, New York Jets
I’m generally the guy who would never draft Robby Anderson, ever, because he was on the Jets. Jets players, they are just another headache I don’t like to deal with. However, Carter has a decent floor, awesome draft value, and the ceiling of a high end RB2. ADP: 96th (RB35)
29. Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
The dude had 63 receptions on 76 targets last year to go along with 89 rush attempts. We all need to face the fact that the QB play in Indy will be bad, but that could actually be good for a check down target with afterburner speed. ADP: 108th (RB40)
30. Damien Harris, New England Patriots
Harris will be limited in his ceiling with Newton as the QB, but once Mac Jones takes over, OC Josh McDaniels will be forced to run the ball more and Harris could be a high end RB2 by week 8. ADP: 88th (RB31)
31. Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
I’m probably not drafting Gordon in any league. I just can’t see him staying healthy enough, or being able to out-perform Williams enough to keep the workload as the season progresses to the critical fantasy weeks. ADP: 84th (RB30)
32. Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jones is just too good to not have on your roster at the ADP he is going at. Even if Fournette is the workhorse, Jones will still see the field, and Fournette isn’t known for being particularly durable. ADP: 94th (RB33)
33. Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
Cohen is basically a wide receiver you can start at the running back position. Whether it’s Dalton or Fields, plays fall apart and Cohen gives you that guy who may only get 8-10 touches but one of them is a huge TD. ADP: 127th (RB45)
34. James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
I see a very real scenario where Conner is on the field more than Edmonds, based on the fact that Conner is much better pass blocker. The committee approach might be good for Conner’s health overall, meaning you could see big production from him as the season progresses. If not, cut him. ADP: 102nd (RB37th)
35. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Fournette could hit the ground running like he did in the 2020 playoffs, and if that’s case, he is an absolute STEAL at his current ADP. Until he hurts his ankle again in week 7 at least. ADP: 95th (RB34)
36. Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders
Drake offers a true explosive talent on the field for those Gruden designs that call for versatility Jacobs can’t provide, and while he won’t see the 239 rushing attempts he did in 2020, he does have Kareem Hunt/Tarik Cohen upside. ADP: 104th (RB39)
Comments