Top 36 RB Breakdown player-by-player.
I released the first rankings and projections list for RBs yesterday, along with some brief summaries of each section, but let's take a deeper dive into the top 36 RBs. The top 36 are basically the RBs that a 12-team league will be starting week 1. Not every team will start 3 RBs, but those with a heavy RB strategy will have more running backs on their roster and thus other teams that went WR/QB early may be starting an RB30 in their second running back slot. Anyways, that's why I'm breaking down the top 36.
1. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
Christian McCaffrey isn't just a popular pick at #1 overall in fantasy drafts, he is THE pick. He is bulletproof in the Carolina offense, showing us historically that he can score three touchdowns against any defense and he can do it on the ground or through the air. Adding Sam Darnold to the offense doesn't really effect McCaffrey's value much. I think you could have me out there at QB and he would find a way to produce. If Carolina has any hope of a playoff run they need a healthy McCaffrey to lead them there, and that means he is a fantasy goldmine. Last season the fifth-year RB was injured in week 2, but if Carolina was in a better position he would have been able to return before the end of the season. (He also scored 6 touchdowns in the three games he played last year). Basically, he has had a ridiculously long time to recover from a fairly common football injury, and before that played 16 games twice in a row, totaling over 200 carries/1000yds/100 receptions each time. McCaffrey is the clear RB1 regardless of Carolina's overall potential.
2. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
Derrick Henry has shown nothing but consistency throughout his college and NFL career. A lot of guys are consistent, but Henry is consistently...off the charts amazing. Based on his workload, which shows no signs of slowing down, Henry should be missing some time or sharing the backfield a little by this point. But instead, he is producing at the highest level of his career, and on an offense that is just getting better and better. The only knock on Henry is that he doesn't factor much into the passing game, which hurts a little in full PPR, but his ground production and lack of injury concern erases that in my opinion. Even with Cook on the board, I'm taking Henry as my #2 RB, and in standard scoring he is in the argument for the overall first player off the board.
3. Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
You can make the argument that Dalvin Cook is the RB2 in full-PPR for 2021 based on projections. His target share in Minnesota is off the charts; like McCaffery, he seems to be impervious to how his team actually performs. Vikings win 42-28? Cook gets 30 fantasy points. Vikings get blown out 28-7? Somehow, Cook gets 24 points. He is heavily involved in the passing attack which automatically gives him an advantage over pure rushing RBs like Henry, the only reason I have him as my #3 is the injury concern. For the first time since middle school essentially, Cook played a full season of football last year. I don't have a crystal ball, and we can't predict health, but we can sense patterns. This high in the draft you are taking Cook knowing there is a greater risk of him missing time than some of the other top RBs, but the upside could be league-winning production regardless of a few missed games.
4. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Alvin Kamara is the Saint's utility knife since the day he was drafted, helping hide the fact that an aging Drew Brees couldn't huck the ball very far anymore, and when he was hurt, Kamara shouldered the responsibilities of hiding the fact that Hill, Winston, Bridgewater, etc...they weren't very good. A slightly concerning split is that Kamara tends to have lackluster performances (for him) without Michael Thomas on the field to draw coverage away. With Thomas out til mid-season most likely, that could be tough on Kamara, but whatever the Saints do at the QB position we can expect the RB to heavily utilized. Kamara is a very solid first round pick, the only reason he isn't above Cook or the others is the fact that the New Orleans offense might not be very good this year, and any time a player has less opportunities to score, it gives me pause on his fantasy ceiling. I have Kamara projected very high based on his usage in the passing game, kind of going against the negative split data about Michael Thomas, so if that happens Kamara could easily be in the RB1 running on the year for PPR formats.
5. Joe Mixon, Cincinatti Bengals
Hey there! What's Joe Mixon doing up here? Well, let me tell you. Before that injury (and yes, he does have an injury history...but people are still taking Cook high) Mixon was getting a workload putting him on pace for a fantasy RB5 finish. RB5!!! A lot of us have been on the Mixon train for years and keep having our hopes dashed one way or another. But in the Joe Burrow, Zach Taylor offense, Mixon is utilized much like Alvin Kamara, except Mixon is a better pure rusher than Kamara. After Mixon went down, the Bengals' flourishing offense began to struggle, and of course when Joe Burrow went down, the train went off the tracks. I have very high projections for the Bengals this year, as in wild-card run projections, and that only happens if Joe Mixon is on the field. In the second half of the first round of a fantasy draft, I like Mixon's ceiling better than Elliott, though he may have a riskier floor. But fantasy is all about taking some calculated risks right? Mixon is a calculated risk worth taking.
13. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
With the other Aaron (Rodgers) situation cleared up for 2020, Aaron Jones once again is an indispensable part of the Green Bay offense. While the entire Green Bay team is a prime candidate for overall regression based on their ridiculous efficiency numbers (especially in the red zone), Jones may still see the least impact from that. It's becoming cliche to compare people to Kamara, but one could argue that Jones has the same skill set as the New Orleans RB on an offense that is much higher powered, thus meaning we could see Jones easily in the overall RB-1 running. I tend to think the Packers won't be as high-scoring this year, but that regression will come from the passing game and that could mean more opportunities for Jones and fellow back AJ Dillon, though Dillon isn't much of a threat to Jones' workload, perhaps stealing some goal line touches but nothing to scare fantasy owners away from him in the first round.
7. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
Zeke has been a fantasy first round staple since he was drafted by the Cowboys fourth overall in 2016. He is also the only RB since 2016 to finish as a top-12 RB in fantasy every season. Last year he tanked to RB-11, but without Dak Prescott, that whole team didn't get to the red zone often enough to realize Zeke's full potential. During the three games Dak played, Zeke was the RB-3. The rise of Tony Pollard as a weapon for the Cowboys may limit Zeke from being a full 3-down player in all situations but that's merely grabbing at straws on why Zeke might not produce. He will. He is still one of the best RBs in the league, and Prescott airing out the ball only increases Zeke's opportunities for big runs down the middle and red zone rush chances. Players with more red zone scoring opportunities tend to do better in fantasy than players who don't have as many scoring chances. It's math. While Zeke is falling into the draft range where you need to start considering whether you want this as your guy, or go with an elite WR tandem, he does have the potential to be a top-5 RB week to week.
8. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
After Zeke, this officially starts the "Tier-2" RBs. Everyone from here on down has some questions, they don't have as clear a path to being a potential RB-1 on the season as CMC, Kamara, and Elliott. That being said, Nick Chubb is a monster. I love his pure running ability, the guy can literally create holes in defenses with his cuts, vision, and pure brute strength. His injury last year caused him to miss some time in the middle of the fantasy season, but he returned in fine form for the fantasy playoffs and was a large part of many winning rosters down the stretch (especially if you traded for him when he was down). Cleveland loves to run the ball, and while Chubb doesn't really see any targets in the passing game, he does receive enough of the rushing load share to make him the clear RB1 on the team with Kareem Hunt basically as a gadget guy. Even missing 4 games in 2020 Chubb finished as the RB-11, give him a full season and expect that to be his floor. If you are taking Chubb in the first round you can bank on him for solid weekly production with the breakout potential to lead the week in scoring, on an offense that primarily scores on the ground.
9. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
I can't wait til next April when I can do my draft predictions on a live sports platform finally and show everyone how damn good my predictions are compared to the "experts". Yes, I had the Steelers taking Harris at 24, it made too much sense based on the fit. Big Ben threw the ball over 600 times last year, and managed a near career-low 6.3 average per completion. Mike Tomlin has no interest in doing that again, as that kind of stat means that you generally were behind in games, and also that the running game was pretty ineffective. The Steelers have a history of taking rookie RBs and making them fantasy superstars right off the bat. Leveon Bell, James Conner, both just hit the ground running in that offense and were featured heavily. Harris can catch the ball, he can block, and he is master between the hashes. With all the Steelers offensive line and defensive needs, they went RB in the first round. The only way we can really decipher truth about what an organization wants to do in a coming season by what they do in the draft and free agency (other than that its all fluff, "we need to be better in the red zone, we need to run the ball better, we need to be more balanced etc"). But the Steelers tell us with their wallet that their WR corp is fine, they drafted a blocking TE (meaning probably a lot of 2-TE sets with Ebron and Freiermuth), and that means lots of looks for a rookie RB with literally no competition in the backfield. Benny Snell failed miserably when given the reins last year, hence the 600 pass attempts and Harris at 24th overall. Me projecting him as a top-10 fantasy RB? Bold, but might be undervaluing him actually.
10. Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, Kansas City Chiefs
For whatever reason, most fantasy gurus have CEH falling crazily far in their projections, and thus in their ADP of him. The guy did finish as the RB-22 in 13 games, which isn't optimal considering he was a top 24 pick last year, on an offense that generally makes fantasy stars out of dudes you haven't even heard of, all with the name D. Williams somehow (definitely picked up the wrong D. Williams on the waiver wire before). If you do the breakdown, Edwards-Hilaire was used a ton the KC offense, with his carries right up there with Nick Chubb and his receptions (36) put him right in the Jonathan Taylor/Kareem Hunt range. Where Clyde slipped was scoring, he only amassed 5 touchdowns on the year. Part of that was the presence of Leveon Bell in the red zone, despite Bell not really succeeding when given the opportunities, and also a crowded backfield with all those Williamses. Bell and one of the Williamses (Damien) is gone, the offense (which was already pretty damn good) is even better with a stacked offensive line, and there's no way CEH doesn't see more action in the goal line region than he did in 2020. This all adds up to having a versatile young player on one of the highest scoring offenses in the game as a definite upside RB1 for me. Say CEH has a very realistic 12-TD season, and that would make his 2020 stat line the RB-10 on the season, which is...right where I have him.
11. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
I'm kind of begrudgingly putting Taylor in my top 12 RBs. His load share and offense lends itself to projecting he will have a top-12 season, but the overall questions about the offense in Indy have me worried. Taylor really came into his own the second half of last season with Philip Rivers under center as they made their playoff run. Taylor figures to be a large part of the offense again, yet the Colts did resign veteran RB Marlon Mack, and it's quite clear by the splits that they love Nyheim Hines on passing downs even though Taylor is very capable receiving out of the backfield as well. This tells us they don't love Jonathan Taylor in every situation, and that means less opportunities to score fantasy points when the situation is ripe. That being said, Taylor is the dominant RB in a committee that will see lots of opportunities and history shows us these guys have a solid floor and the chance for RB-5 upside if the touchdowns match the touches.
14. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
Ekeler is everyone's favorite, being from Eaton Colorado and going undrafted only to explode as one of the most prolific pass catching backs in the NFL. He does get his share of ground touches, but Joshua Kelley and Justin Jackson are expected to continue rotating in for the lions share of the touches between the tackles. Lucky for Ekeler, Justin Herbert doesn't like to run up the middle, and that offense is looking to continue the roll they accomplished in 2020, breaking a few rookie passing records along the way. If the Chargers want to win down the field, they need to have a versatile RPO attack and Ekeler is tailor made for that. In a full PPR format, Ekeler will be a solid high end RB2 with double-digit touchdown potential each week if healthy. Small guys tend to miss time though, so factor that into your decision with Ekeler. Perhaps a Kelley or Jackson handcuff later is a smart move, but with Ekeler's potential to catch over 100 balls in 2021 he is a great snag especially if he falls in your draft because of his lack of comparative true running opportunities.
13. Saquan Barkley, New York Giants
Barkley was the consensus #2 pick last year, with some analysts taking him at #1 over CMC and some fading him a little to 3 or 4, but in general, he was a top pick last year. Really good running backs on really bad teams with young QBs generally is a recipe for fantasy bliss, because the coordinators don't trust the young arm and rely heavily on the star RB creating opportunities rather than the QB doing it through the air. Barkley very well might have enjoyed that in 2020, but a week 2 ACL tear ended that pretty quick. Barkley isn't necessarily "injury-prone", in fact if you watch the tape...some analysts jokingly say Daniel Jones tore Barkley's ACL with where he placed that pass. The Giant's offense got a little better in Barkley's absence, though the running game was largely ineffective. I'm projecting a better season overall from the Giants offense in 2021 and Barkley factors to be a huge part of that. The reports of easing him back into full playing time is disappointing news for fantasy owners, but even after I accounted for that in projections, I still have Barkley projected as my RB-7 in PPR. If you draft Barkley you are knowing you may not see his full potential til after week 4...so you need to plan on reduced production out of the gate. However...once fully back, this guy can win you your fantasy league. I'm comfortable taking him higher than 13 probably...but let's see how camp plays out.
14. Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams
Some people had Cam Akers in their top 10 RBs, some even top 5, and I think that was a little crazy. However, there is a lot of touches to be had in that backfield, my main worry for Cam Akers was...Darrell Henderson. While Akers dominated the backfield at the end of last season and the playoffs, overall the two backs saw similar workloads across the season and Henderson was even out-performing Akers steadily until the fantasy playoffs. Now that Akers is out for the year with an Achilles, the Rams haven't really made moves to sign a veteran RB. This indicates head coach McVay plans to use Henderson for a majority of the Akers workload, and part of me thinks that was the plan all along, as Akers already showed signs of wearing down last season under intense usage. RB14 projections might be a little high, but the Rams are a projected top-5 offense, and I'm certainly willing to take a flyer on Henderson at his current ADP of RB22.
15. Antonio Gibson, Washington Football Team
Gibson came on last year as the clear RB1 in Washington, finishing the season as the RB-13. He put up reliable numbers week 2-12, with a few earth-shattering performances mixed in there, but week 13 he was hurt, and missed the next two games down the stretch, coming back with a dismal performance in week 16 (fantasy super bowl week). Not necessarily his fault but he left a bad taste in the mouth of many managers. This season though, with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB, they look to stretch the field with the McLaurin-Samuel tandem, and that can mean a lot of ground-and-pound yards for Gibson. Last season he had 200 touches, and we should expect about the same this year with the presence of versatile RB JD McKissic stealing some opportunities from the young back. If we look at the projections though, it's kind of splitting hairs between many off the RBs in this cluster.
16. Chris Carson, Seattle Seahawks
Carson is a favorite RB2 of mine every year. He always seems to fall in drafts to a solid spot where he can be taken without spending too much and he generally exceeds his point projections. The Seattle offense wants, and NEEDS, to run the ball more, and it won't be with Rashad Penny. This is still a good team, and will have plenty of red zone opportunities for Carson. I have the Seahawks regressing overall based on elevated competition in their division, but if Carson can just stay healthy, he might be the most undervalued RB in this tier based on ADP...though his ADP is currently raising on draft boards as the season draws closer.
17. David Montgomery, Chicago Bears
David Montgomery, as a rookie, came out of nowhere and blew fantasy owners out of the water with his 2020 campaign. Finishing as the RB-4 (!) on a Chicago offense that really had no QB play to speak of, he became the workhorse in the absence of Tarik Cohen. After that kind of success tho, even with the return of Cohen, Montgomery will be getting the majority of the load. RBs tend to fare pretty well again the teams in his division, giving him 6 nice matchups for the year right there, and with Andy Dalton and Justin Fields entering the mix, you have predictability at the QB position. When I say that, I mean that we know what Dalton is. Montgomery will do well with him under center, and will be the goal line guy. If they make the switch to Fields, which will most likely happen at some point before mid-season...that's why Montgomery has faded so far in ADP. Rookie mobile QBs on mediocre offenses generally spell disaster for traditional RBs, whereas Cohen could see the added touches in a Fields-led offense.
18. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
I really really try to stay away from Baltimore running backs in the Lamar Jackson era. The dude runs for at least 1000 yards every year and if you give him an RPO, there isn’t much of an “option”, he’s taking it. However there is almost too many good things coming out about Dobbins and the Raven’s plan to utilize him more, plus he clearly established himself as the RB1 over Gus Edwards last year. The only issue is…what does being the RB1 in Lamar Jackson’s offense mean? It means enough in my predictions to give him a shot as an RB2 with a decent floor and potential to surprise you with some goal line carries each week. The Ravens understand that amping up their running game is their only chance to get past the divisional round in a conference with powerhouses like KC, Buffalo, Tennessee, and Cleveland.
19. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
Josh Jacobs has been faded pretty hard in expert rankings following the 2020 season, probably because his production was so up and down. He pretty much met the expected points from his 2020 ADP, but in this range you generally are looking for guys to exceed projections, not just meet them. Jacobs exceeded expectations in weeks 1, 5, 9, and 15…but was disappointing otherwise. His inconsistencies led to him having some of his best weeks on manager‘s benches, plus his 6pt performance in Week 16 (traditionally fantasy Super Bowl week) left a pretty bad taste in everyone’s mouth. Let’s not even talk about his social media troll thumbing his nose at fantasy owners. The addition of Kenyan Drake means there will be a clear split in duties in the Las Vegas backfield, but we should expect Jacob’s to get the majority of the carries and goal line opportunities. If he can get into the end zone at a better clip, Jacobs is a solid RB2 that you can still get for relative value in the draft.
20. D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions
The fact that Swift is all over the board in fantasy mock drafts currently reflects that we really don’t know what to expect from the new Detroit offense. We expect it to be bad, but just aren’t sure how bad, or in which specific areas. While I’m not in love with Jared Goff or pretty much anything about the Lions except a slight interest in TJ Hockenson‘s ceiling, I do like Swift as an athlete and even bad teams run the ball. The Lions added Jamal Williams in free agency, a multi-tool type change of pace back who can rush and receive, but Swift is the clear RB1 on a team that probably will want to run the ball a lot as they begin their 9th or 10th rebuild since the early 2000s. He can run, he can catch, he has durability issues, but Goff loves to throw it short and with this offensive line that might be the only option. Swift could see a ton of targets in addition to a “Lion’s” share of the rushes.
21. Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles
Sanders is my first player from a “running back by committee” offense. He has slid in projections and ADP because of the competition in the backfield, but there is a lot of research done going back to 2011 about these type of backfields. In situations where there are two or three RBs sharing the snaps, there is a tendency for one of those backs to outperform the others by a lot, despite all their draft positions decreasing due to perception. Sanders might have to share time on the field with Boston Scott (isn’t Jordan Howard still there somewhere too?), but more concerning might be drafting Kenneth Gainwell out of Memphis, a scary prospect that has all the qualities to be a breakout rookie. But Sanders is the clear RB1 in this committee, and the data shows we can rely on Sanders to outperform the others. Is that enough to make him a breakout candidate? Sanders historically doesn’t get a lot of touches so ita all about what he does with them. Last year he put up killer numbers throughout the fantasy playoffs and Super Bowl weeks, despite comparatively limited touches. I’m rolling the dice on Sanders with his current ADP as an RB2.
22. Ronald Jones, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
RoJo!!!! Somehow this guy always ends up on everyone’s team. It’s not even possible for him to be on every team, but it's true. He has all the glitz we want from a perceived undervalued pick: he goes late in the draft, he is very fast, he plays on the best offense in the league. He does compete with Leonard Fournette and now the very capable veteran Gio Bernard for touches, and despite him only fumbling those two times, he was pretty much benched for parts of the year by Bruce Arians. Fournette was an absolute monster in the playoffs, but no one is really expecting “Playoff Lenny” to hit the ground as explosively as he ended the year. Jones is just too good to not have on your roster at the ADP he is going at. Camp reports already are that Jones is the clear #1 and we should expect to see him featured prominently. Remember, Fournette didn't re-sign with Tampa for a cheap deal out of kindness. No one offered him anything. He shouldn't concern us too much as a fantasy threat to Jones, any more than the other RBs in this region.
23. Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Not so much a committee as a duo, the Denver backfield will be shared between veteran Melvin Gordon III and rookie Javonte Williams. Through minicamps Williams did nothing but impress, and his tape from college (and the second round pick used on him by Denver) makes it clear he is destined to be the future at the position. The issue is Gordon, regardless of who “wins” the starting job they both will be seeing plenty of the field from day one. Why I’m putting Williams so high is risky: I’m expecting him to have decent production from the get go, but I mainly see him as in investment for your playoff run. Through injury, or just being outplayed, Gordon is bound to have his workload transferred to the rookie by mid season at the latest. This opens up the young back to come into his own right down the stretch as we make our playoff runs and (hopefully) Super Bowls. Williams’ ADP is pretty high for a guy I’m not sure will put up RB2 numbers til week 6, but once he does, I’m expecting weekly high end RB2/low RB1 from him if Denver can get into the red zone more.
24. Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons
There are arguments to made for Davis being ranked much higher based on the volume and production he saw in CMC‘s absence in Carolina. He is in Atlanta now, and there arent many options for carrying the ball in Atlanta. Big Mike is the guy. There are a ton of worries about how far he can carry that workload, and just how bad the Falcons offense will be, but the volume is there to warrant a flyer on Davis as an RB2. The main worry is, he might get you to your fantasy playoffs...but will his production fall off when the fantasy games mean the most? It's a dice roll.
25. Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers
The rookie Sermon out of Ohio State going to San Francisco was a popcorn-eating moment for fantasy managers. Kyle Shanahan makes RB1s out of guys he found on the street on a weekly basis, and generally has to, because that team has the injury bug worse than the San Diego Los Angeles Chargers. What could they do with a real talent, fresh and ready, heading that backfield? A lot of the reason I like him here is much the same reason I like Miles Sanders, he is the expected #1 in a very productive RB committee. There is another reason I love Sermon: his draft value. I’m projecting Sermon to have a low-end RB2 season and currently he is being rated at RB37, meaning you can snag this guy several rounds later than his projected production would indicate. As the season draws closer we will know more about the load share predictions for San Francisco.
26. Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins
I really like Myles Gaskin this year. Regardless of whether Tua progresses or not, or if this deep attack works or not, the RBs in the Miami system are getting work, and Gaskin is the clear favorite. He will share the backfield a little, especially after the injuries that ravaged the room in 2020 (though hopefully Gaskin won’t have to deal with team-wide CoVid issues this year). Of the RBs falling into the “running back doldrums” of the mid rounds, Gaskin is my favorite of the group for the value.
27. Travis Ettienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
Ettienne is the other first round running back (Najee Harris) taken in the 2021 draft, selected by Urban Meyer with their second pick in the round after taking Ettiene‘s college QB Trevor Lawrence with the first overall. James Robinson came out of nowhere and, mainly due to injuries that shortened other elite RBs seasons, he was a top 5 fantasy RB. After adding Carlos Hyde…then drafting Ettienne with such a high kick on a team with multiple needs, it’s clear Robinson isn’t going to be the lead back in the new Urban Meyer system. Ettienne will be the workhorse, and his skill set and familiarity with Lawrence will lead to an increase in pass targets the other backs aren’t likely to see. I’m definitely taking a flyer on Ettienne for 2021 at his current ADP.
28. Michael Carter, New York Jets
I’m generally the guy who would never draft Robby Anderson, ever, because he was on the Jets. Jets players, they are just another headache I don’t like to deal with. They are never good, but sometimes good enough to put up a decent game on your bench and then you try to flex them the following week and (literally) -2 points. Carter, the rookie RB that came out of the UNC tandem with Javonte Williams, was selected by the Jets to fill a role they just can’t seem to buy in free agency: a consistent RB. “Yeah but Tevin Colema-“ Don’t draft Tevin Coleman. He’s another that might just get cut before camp is over. Carter will be the RB1 in New York, his talent says he can be a viable fantasy option, but we need to see how Zach Wilson and the new coordinators want to operate. Running the ball is generally a big part of the plan with a rookie QB, and the Jets offensive line is quietly becoming one of the more talented young lines in the league. Carter has a decent floor, awesome draft value, and the ceiling of a high end RB2.
29. Damien Harris, New England Patriots
No one wants to draft New England running backs because…well, there are a lot of reasons. Mainly, there’s too many of them, and Bill Belichiek hates fantasy owners. More recently, it’s Cam Newton. Cam Newton ran the ball in the red zone on designed runs more times than any other team IN HISTORY. That obviously isn’t something the Patriots would like to do again, and probably had something to do with drafting Mac Jones out of Alabama at 15th overall. I think it’s likely Cam starts the season but it’s very unlikely he lasts past the first rough patch where they lose a few games and the ”Mac” chants start getting pretty loud. Kind of in the Sanders/Sermon vein, I like Harris as the clear RB1 in a committee, but also in the Javonte Williams vein, I think Harris will be limited in his ceiling with Newton as the QB. Once Jones takes over, OC Josh McDaniels will be forced to run the ball more and Harris could be a high end RB2 by week 8.
30. Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns
This is a pretty big fade from where you would expect to see Kareem Hunt in PPR formats. But here’s my reasoning…last year, despite somehow finishing as the RB-10 on the year, he was largely a disappointment based on expectation. And this is why: Hunt finished with RB2 numbers or better just 56% of the time in 2020. He also put up his best weeks the first five weeks of the year, and then when Chubb went down…Hunt was just okay. Despite some big weeks he was really no more than a flex option when the fantasy season mattered most. The Cleveland offense wants to throw the ball down the field more in 2021, and while I still like him as a RB2 in the Browns playoff-bound system…I think this is his ceiling and I don’t like drafting for ceiling at this ADP.
31. Melvin Gordon, Denver Broncos
Ugh. I’m probably not drafting Gordon in any league, he is more of a “my guys are hurt so maybe this guy is on the waiver wire?” type for me. That being said, he will start the season getting at least as many touches (if not more) than the rookie Williams, so his value as an RB2 is valid in the early weeks of the year. I just can’t see him staying healthy enough, or being able to out-perform Williams enough to keep the workload as the season progresses to the critical fantasy weeks. Remember, we want to draft for ceilings, not floors.
32. Kenyan Drake, Las Vegas Raiders
Kenyan Drake is another “under the radar” guy that fantasy managers having been drafting as a later-round, huge upside RB. He was heavily utilized in the Cardinals offense after he joined the team in the Hopkins/Johnson swap thing that left Arizona desperate for an RB. Despite his usage, Kyler Murray made it hard for anyone in that backfield to amass much reliable fantasy value. That will very likely be the case again in Arizona, but luckily Drake doesn’t play in Arizona anymore. He finds himself as the speedy new toy for John Gruden and the Raiders, complementing the solid (but not…flashy…) Josh Jacobs. The Raiders have been trying to use a committee type style for years, but the issue was really the talent of those backups being so sub-par to Jacobs, the guy eventually was on the field for every running snap and most of the passing ones. Drake offers a true explosive talent on the field for those Gruden designs that call for versatility Jacobs can’t provide, and while he won’t see the 239 rushing attempts he did in 2020, he does have Kareem Hunt/Tarik Cohen upside.
33. Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears
Cohen is basically a wide receiver you can start at the running back position. He doesn’t run the ball much, but when he is healthy he is basically Austin Ekeler. David Montgomery will be the man in Chicago, but this is PPR, and whether it’s Andy Dalton or Justin Fields, plays fall apart and Tarik Cohen gives you that guy who may only get 8-10 total touches a game but one of them is a 47 yard TD catch, and that makes him “flex-able”.
34. James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
Remember when James Conner was a Steeler and if you had a late pick you went WR in the first round, and took Conner confidently as your RB1 in the second and all was good? Well he got hurt. A lot. And I guess he’s chopped liver now. He was signed by Arizona in free agency, and while Chase Edmonds is largely expected to absorb a majority of the vacancy left by Kenyan Drake, there is a pretty good chance that Edmonds won’t be able to play that role for them. Conner is a sturdy between the tackles guy who can also catch the ball. Edmonds is slighter of build and profiles more as the gadget guy. I see a very real scenario where Conner is on the field more than Edmonds, based on what Kyler Murray does, and the fact that Conner is much better pass blocker than Edmonds. The committee approach might be good for Conner’s health overall, meaning you could see big production from him as the season progresses. If not, cut him.
35. James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
I'm not a huge Robinson fan this year, as by all indications he looks to have a much more limited role in the Urban Meyer offense that added Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Ettienne in the first round. However, Robinson is talented, and especially with Ettienne's expected usage in the passing game, someone is going to get the bull rush touches and it will be Robinson. His fantasy value will be mostly TD-reliant, but I figure he will crus enough of those to warrant a flex option depending on the matchup.
36. Nyheim Hines, Indianapolis Colts
In Standard Scoring, Hines is clearly lower on the list, but I’m higher on Hines than most because I guess I’m still not fully sold on Jonathan Taylor. Hines will see the field a lot, even when Taylor or Mack are out there, which means his floor is pretty good as a receiver and his ceiling can be low end RB1 several weeks a year if he gets in the end zone. The dude had 63 receptions on 76 targets last year to go along with 89 rush attempts. We all need to face the fact that Carson Wentz, Jacob Eason, whoever, are not very good quarterbacks, but that could actually be really good for a check down target with afterburner speed.
Full List/Projections
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