With over a week of training camp under our belt, we can finally get a feel for the reality of our summer predictions. Each Monday I will be releasing my updated RB rankings as preseason continues, right up to the final draft day rankings preparing you for your fantasy draft.
You may notice that some point projections don't necessarily match the rankings. That is because, especially with early projections, they are fairly player-centric. For instance, Alvin Kamara's projections lean more towards a ceiling for him, whereas Dalvin Cook's projections are more of a floor. I do projections based on game charting, so if the numbers don't align with my rankings, it gives me a chance to evaluate why the numbers look like that: are my projections off, or are my rankings off? I left the numbers as they are for the official first Sports Leaf RB Rankings, so we can see over the coming weeks how those numbers change as we adjust to fallout from training camp.
(Also notice that projections are for the fantasy season, not the NFL season, so I omitted the projections for Week 18 from each player, as no fantasy league should ever have their Super Bowl the final week of the NFL season, if your league does that it's a rookie move and you probably aren't serious enough about FF to need this list anyways).
Here are the 2021 RB rankings and projections as of Monday August 9th.
Christian McCaffrey at RB1 is no surprise, if healthy he is a combined RB1 and WR1 in one roster spot. The Panthers added QB Sam Darnold, but that doesn't inspire me to think Carolina is suddenly going to abandon CMC and start stretching the field. McCaffrey IS that offense, and has shown he can produce insane numbers regardless of how bad his team actually is.
Derrick Henry is probably the safest pick, and in standard scoring I have him neck-and-neck with CMC. Cook, Kamara, and Jones are grouped together as well because of their volume assumptions, and I'm very high on Joe Mixon this season. The Bengals don't have any competition in the backfield for Mixon, and if healthy he has top-5 RB potential each week. The next tier is so closely projected, it's kind of personal preference. I think CEH takes a step forward this season and I'm projecting a RB1 type workload for rookie Najee Harris in Pittsburgh. Ekeler's production is largely reception-based, so he may be the most volatile of my top-12 picks.
I put Barkley at RB13 despite my projections being fairly high because of the early-season volume risk. Even if his workload is limited throughout September, he looks to explode later in the season and put up RB1 numbers consistently. I'm also very high on Darrell Henderson following the Cam Akers injury, as I don't expect the Rams to bring in a veteran RB of any consequence. Henderson was treated as the RB1 through much of the 2020 season, and if we see LA lean on him in Aker's absence he could put up big numbers in a projected top-5 NFL offense. Other guys in this section to keep an eye one are David Montgomery, Ronald Jones, and Antonio Gibson. Gibson is expected to have a larger role in the offense but a lot of his 2020 fantasy relevancy was tied to his 11 touchdowns, and new QB Ryan Fitzpatrick might limit the red zone chances for Gibson. David Montgomery was insane last year, and could see similar numbers under Andy Dalton, but if the switch to Justin Fields happens we can only assume that's terrible news for Montgomery's fantasy value. Ronald Jones is always a sleeper fantasy pick at RB, but between the splits last year and the reports from the Bucs training camp, Jones is the clear RB1 in front of Fournette, and the addition of Gin Bernard looks to hurt Fournette more than Jones in 2021.
The San Francisco backfield is a nightmare for fantasy owners to predict. That being said, Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr cannot seem to stay on the field, and despite having almost 0 draft capital for the foreseeable future, Kyle Shanahan moved up to get OSU RB Trey Sermon. That and the reports of Sermon being a beast in training camp lead me to believe he will quickly become the RB1 in a committee approach, and for a West-Coast style offense that means fantasy value at the RB position. Michael Carter and Damien Harris look to shoulder the workload for their teams, but the scoring potential is fairly low. Hunt, Drake, Cohen, and Hines all will see enough action in the receiving department to provide decent flex value each week, and guys like Robinson, Conner, and Gordon will have a 50/50 workload at best in their backfields, which means we need to meter expectations.
Some people like Chase Edmonds to take over the volume in Arizona, but I see it more as a split with him and Conner where Edmonds gets the yards and Conner gets the goal line. Either way, with Kyler Murray neither looks to have the TD opportunities required to have consistent fantasy value. This part of the list is mostly gadget RBs like James White and JD McKissic, or RB2s like Fournette, Booker, and Edwards. Gadget guys have value but its all situational, for instance White is just as talented as Tarik Cohen but Cohen will most likely get used more thus he is ranked higher. RB2s like Booker can have value, but it's not consistent. Handcuff guys like Mattison also begin to go here, as their projections aren't as important as the volume they would see if they were to become the RB1 on their team.
The last tier are mostly handcuff RBs. Out of this tier, I like Murray and Pollard as they will see some volume even with their RB1 being healthy, whereas we can't really say the same for Evans or Hubbard. Kelley and Dillon are super interesting here as they will most likely be the goal line backs and TDs drive fantasy value (remember Mike Evans last year, or Legarrette Blount his whole career?)
Stay tuned for 2021 WR Rankings coming Tuesday 8/10! This RB Rankings list will be updated and re-released one week from today, 8/16.
2021 RB Rankings 8/9/21 Full List
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