First edition of the 2021 QB rankings as we prepare for the first round of preseason games.
There are lots of factors involved when ranking a modern QB's projected success. The top guys generally have enough production on the ground to make them fantasy superstars even if their NFL grades aren't particularly good. Those same guys tend to be more injury-prone as well, so that can be risky to rely on. Most teams draft a backup though, so we went ahead and ranked all the projected starters, and then went ahead and did projections for the backups that are expected to see some playing time at some point. All projections are as if that player plays all games for his team, i.e. Cam Newton and Mac Jones I charted out as if each was named the starter week 1.
I am really high on Dallas this year. I do think they will have a decent season if all the stars are healthy, and Parsons will help that awful defense, but they aren't fixing it overnight. Prescott will be asked to do a lot both through the air and on the ground, and I think he will finish the season as the passing leader in the NFL even if Dallas struggles in the wins department. Josh Allen I think will continue to be an absolute beast, and even if his passing numbers decline a little he can make up for it with rushing touchdowns. Kyler Murray could be the QB steal of the draft at the ADP he is going at, and while his rushing TDs could decrease, I think we see him throw a lot more than 26 touchdowns this year. Mahomes is the easy guy to take first, but we saw last year that the Chiefs are really good, and Pat rarely has to push the envelope late in games...which is good for real football, but not the best for fantasy. Also looking like the Chiefs plan to run the ball in the red zone a little more, which takes some scoring away from Mahomes.
Herbert and Wilson are splitting hairs for me, and since Herbert is going later in drafts than Wilson, I like his value more; that being said, Wilson provides a pretty solid floor whereas Herbert has the ceiling. Depends on your draft philosophy. Jackson, Tannehill, and Rodgers will most likely have really good years that you can depend on to not lose you your fantasy league if you build a solid team around them. Hurts and Burrow mainly have question marks about either health (Burrow) or consistency (Hurts) and both could be fairly risky on the injury side with how they play. One of my favorite late round targets is Matthew Stafford, as I think he will have a really good year and is available pretty late in most drafts currently.
If Deshaun Watson plays, even for half a season, he is worth rolling the dice on and benching because he will be a top-5 QB when he hits the field. But there is a good chance the guy doesn't take a snap in 2021 as well. Trevor Lawrence provides a ton of upside, but until we see how that offense looks (is it all short pass, scramble for yards, rarely score? Or do they air it out?) I don't think he should be anybody's plan per say. In a Superflex league, where your QB2 is one of the more important positions on your roster, guys I like to target here are Daniel Jones and Ryan Fitzpatrick.
I'm loosely predicting Winston and Bridgewater to win their respective competitions, and these projections also assume a week 1 start and full season from Wentz, Dalton, Jimmy G, and Taylor as well. Of this group I think Winston is a sneaky target.
These are the guys that will probably see some playing time, so I went ahead and projected their seasons out. Basically, it looks like on a weekly basis Lock would offer the highest floor, but the rushing abilities from Lance and Fields is pretty enticing. You can draft and stash Lance and Fields for sure and see what happens, but Lance most likely isn't seeing the field for awhile. SF has a pretty easy schedule and Jimmy G will do enough to keep the job. In Chicago, Dalton will probably survive until the first stretch of back to back losses around week 4-6, and then we will get a look at Fields.
Stay tuned for player breakdowns coming tomorrow.
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