Joe Burrow is all over fantasy draft boards, and a prime candidate as a "season-winner"...a guy who has the potential to exceed his draft value by soooo much, he will win you your league. Last year, that was Josh Allen and Kyler Murray. Throw Justin Herbert in there too. Can Burrow be that guy for you in 2021?
Let‘s first take a look at Burrow’s rookie campaign in 2020. It was certainly a lot more impressive to the eye test than on the fantasy sheet. Burrow topped 20 points just 3 times in his 10 games, and really only had a true breakout in week 7 in a close loss against the Browns, putting up 34 points despite throwing an interception and fumbling the ball…three times. Fumbling was a consistent theme for Burrow, racking up 9 in 10 games, along with 5 interceptions. That’s -28 points in ten games, not good. He did only have one sub-10 point game, a week 5 27-3 blowout loss to Baltimore, and the rest of his games were suitable for a low-end fantasy starter due to the production on his feet. After suffering a catastrophic knee injury week 11, Burrow was done for the year, a disappointing end to a season that kept tantalizing fans with greatness but never quite achieved it in the big moments. Currently Burrow is expected to be fully recovered for week 1, but with a reconstructed knee, will it ever be the same? Even if it is, there is a possibility coaching will limit his ground usage, which is a terrible thing for the young QB in fantasy football terms.
How important is the health of Burrow's knee? Tom Brady had one of the more efficient years in his illustrious career in 2020, and finished as the QB8. That's how impactful the ground game has on a QB's fantasy season. The Bengals did beef up their offensive line, and added Burrow's LSU teammate Jamar Chase to the WR corp that already has Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Even with all those receiving threats (toss in Joe Mixon out of the backfield), without a healthy amount of rushing yards and touchdowns Burrow will fall into the Jared Goff/Derek Carr range of fantasy irrelevancy.
Last year we saw a young prospect on the verge of breaking out. His actual numbers were consistent with QBs we generally don't have very high fantasy opinions of: weekly points averages were on par with Teddy Bridgewater, Cam Newton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. But that was a rookie on a very bad team, finding his footing in the NFL. The potential was evident each week, though we saw struggles with decision-making and accuracy that are typical of any developing QB with an offense and coaching staff that are basically developing with him. We won't be seeing any of Burrow in the three Cincinnati preseason games, which means fantasy owners have to draft him with only reports from camp to rely on. While Burrow easily has a Justin Herbert-type ceiling, if his mobility is diminished at all he quickly becomes a liability to your roster regardless of his passing ability. Currently that is being reflected in his ADP, as Burrow is ranked right outside of the starter-range at QB13, although in personal mock drafts and reviews of other actual drafts, people are wary to actually put Burrow on their team.
There is absolute risk with drafting Burrow, and I don't think he should be anyone's plan at starting QB for week 1, but his draft value is such that you can take a flyer on the guy in a later round and you just might have that league winner we mentioned in the intro. Last season, I had a league where I lost Dak Prescott week 3, but since I had drafted Justin Herbert as well, my season wasn't automatically over. Burrow can be that guy for you. Basically, the upside is too high, and cost too low, to not have this guy on your bench at the start of the season.
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