There were a ton of rookie players highly drafted in the fantasy world. But should you be relying on them week one?
The funny thing about football drafts, real and fantasy, is that often you have to spend a lot of capital on a player's potential and not their immediate value. This was certainly the case this year, with rookies being selected as fantasy starters at nearly every slot except QB (and, in some cases, even there). Because of where these players were taken, you may see them inserted into your starting slots...but should they stay there for week one? Many of these young players' projected value isn't until mid/late season, so regardless of where you personally selected them in your draft, let's break down who you should start, and who you should let ride the bench, for the first week.
Roll 'Em Out
(definite start)
Najee Harris, RB
Pittsburgh Steelers
@Buffalo, 1pm EST
The highest drafted rookie player in fantasy 2021, Harris was taken in the second round across the board which means you probably don't have a choice but to start him. The rookie's first matchup is on the road against the Buffalo Bills, which looks bad on paper but in 2020 Buffalo was fairly middle-of-the-pack against the run. The Steelers know they can't throw the ball 60 times a game like they did last year after losing their lead back, so regardless of the caliber of defense, expect head coach Mike Tomlin to rely on what has worked for over a decade: ride the rookie running back into the ground to open up the passing lanes. The Bills were not great at stopping red zone rushers from getting to the end zone last year, so if the offensive line can hold up Harris could have a stellar debut on the road. If he gets stuffed however, don't lose hope on the young man as a road start against a playoff-bound team is a tough draw for your first NFL game ever.
Kyle Pitts, TE
Atlanta Falcons
vs. Philadelphia Eagles, 1pm EST
Pitts is the one of the highest rated prospects at any position to enter the NFL in awhile, taken 4th overall by Atlanta out of Florida. While the tight end position doesn't generally lend itself to insane fantasy production from rookies, Pitts finds himself in a prime position for success. He plays with an aging yet still elite QB, on an offense that just traded its HOF receiver Julio Jones to open up targets for the young tight end. I have been on the camp of metering expectations for Pitts, but most likely any fantasy owner with him rostered, is starting him. That's good news then , because a home game against Philly is a pretty good way to kick off your career as a pass catcher.
"Flex-able" Rookies
(risky but playable)
Trey Sermon, RB
San Francisco 49ers
@Detroit Lions, 1pm EST
For a team with very little draft capitol over the next several years, the 49ers showed how much they like Sermon by moving up and selecting the Ohio State RB in the third round. Sermon absolutely annihilated training camp and preseason, and while fragile veteran Raheem Mostert currently holds the starting job, it's only a matter of time before Sermon forces his way into the feature role. Sermon in most leagues was drafted as a flex or early bench player, and for week one against the Detroit Lions he has starting upside. Its a risky play, not knowing how the touches will be spread between the rookie and the veteran, but he will see volume and if the game is a blowout as expected, it will be a prime time to pile on touches for the young back and preserve the health of the speedy Mostert.
Devonta Smith, WR
Philadelphia Eagles
@Atlanta Falcons, 1pm EST
Devonta Smith is one of the most electrifying receivers of the 2020 college season, amassing 1800 yards and 23 touchdowns at Alabama on his way to winning a Heisman. The Eagles took Smith 10th overall in the draft, and he figures to be a large part of their offense as they have little other receiving options. The uncertainty of starting QB Jalen Hurts, and overall effectiveness of the offense, doesn't help Smith's prospects, but he does stand to see a healthy target share against the porous Atlanta Falcons defense week 1. If you are weak at WR, or in deeper 3WR or multi-flex leagues, Smith is one of the more solid-floor rookie starts based on his expected target share.
Trevor Lawrence, QB
Jacksonville Jaguars
@Houston Texans, 1pm EST
Starting rookie quarterbacks is pretty much always a risky proposition, but I think the highest-rated QB prospect since Andrew Luck deserves a little more respect than the average first round pick. Lawrence was selected first overall by Jacksonville, who brought in college mastermind Urban Meyer to helm the rebuild of a team around the young star. They also drafted Lawrence's college running back Travis Ettienne in the first round, but the latter suffered a Lisfranc injury in preseason, ending his season. The young back was a familiar target in the short passing game for Lawrence, but the Jags still have talented young RB James Robinson in the backfield, and if anything it magnifies the role of veteran WR Marvin Jones Jr. to be the safety blanket for the rookie signal caller. Most fantasy managers have Lawrence on their bench, as he went late enough in the draft where you probably took a verified starter ahead of him. In super flex leagues, or if you are a late round QB hero, Lawrence is surprisingly not a bad play week 1. He uses his feet, has plenty of talented receiving threats, and best of all, he plays the Houston Texans. The Texans have one of the weakest defenses in the NFL currently, and if Lawrence is going to live up to expectations, we should see him put up solid QB2 numbers on the road week 1.
Jaylen Waddle, WR
Miami Dolphins
@New England Patriots, 4:25pm EST
Waddle, oft compared to Tyreek Hill, was arguably the most talented wide receiver at Alabama despite teammate Devonta Smith in the room with him. Waddle went ahead of Smith in the draft, and is immediately one of the most versatile and explosive position players in the league. Tua has a repertoire established with the young receiver, and his quick route style is something that will translate into the NFL day 1. Waddle does have injury concerns, missing time in college and already in preseason, and his slight frame may limit his true longevity at the higher level. The New England Patriots have one of the better defenses in the league, so depending on how highly you drafted Waddle he may merely be bench depth for you and actually starting him isn't something you have to consider. If you do, however...out of the rookies, he offers the highest ceiling with the fewest touches. Waddle has the supreme ability to turn a 2 yard screen pass into an 80-yard touchdown, so even if he sees a low target share, he can still produce fantasy value.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR
Detroit Lions
@ San Francisco, 1pm EST
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a surprise of the 2021 preseason. Taken in the fourth round by Detroit out of USC, St. Brown entered a team with a new coaching staff, a new QB, and a new outlook on rebuilding the Lions (including some knee-cap biting). The Lions face the hefty pass rush of the 49ers Sunday, which means Jared Goff will be under some pressure. We can expect Detroit to be fairly out-matched, in which case they will have to abandon the run at some point, and that means passing. With limited options, St. Brown becomes a tantalizing sleeper option based on volume alone, and should Detroit see the end zone more than once, he might even score. St. Brown is fairly deep on most benches, so letting him sit til we see if anyone other than Hockenson is worth starting is a wise choice, but in 3WR formats he could pay the bills in PPR formats.
Better Off Benched
(for now)
Javonte Williams, RB
Denver Broncos
@NYG 4:25pm EST
The Broncos moved up in the second round to select the North Carolina running back, and in camp and preseason he showed out. Denver OC Pat Shurmur typically likes to feature one back, which could mean that until Williams proves it in a real game, he could play a spell-back role to highly-paid starter Melvin Gordon III. While the explosive young back could emerge in week 1 against the Giants (Shurmur's former team), it's wiser to move Williams to your bench for week one and flex a more reliable player, especially in PPR formats where you most likely have a receiver benched who will have enough targets to provide a higher floor than Williams offers.
Jamar Chase, WR
Cincinnati Bengals
vs. Minnesota Vikings, 1pm EST
Chase's ADP meant he was selected in the fantasy starting rounds, as he should have been with his off-the-charts potential. Chase didn't play college football in 2020 however, and that rust showed with some drops and sloppy routes throughout preseason. The main worry is that he has Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd on the field with him, who have an established repertoire with QB Joe Burrow, and Joe Mixon is more than capable being the bailout for Burrow against the stout Minnesota defense. Chase is better left on the bench til we see how the targets get shared in Cincy.
Michael Carter, RB
New York Jets
@Carolina Panthers, 1pm EST
Carter was drafted by the Jets in the fourth round, and by fantasy managers right in the flex range (or higher, depending on RB formats, and when you drafted...he fell in recent weeks). That means, you likely are deciding whether to play him or not. Throughout OTAs and the beginning of training camp, it appeared that Carter would emerge as the lead back, though that got muddled once preseason started and we saw highlight performances from fellow backs Tevin Coleman, La'Michael Perine, Josh Adams, and even Ty Johnson. Carter still figures to be a large part of the rushing scheme behind a youthful offensive line, but until we see how the dust settles (and who stays healthy) Carter is a risky week 1 play against a tough Carolina defense.
Zach Wilson, QB
New York Jets
@Carolina Panthers, 1pm EST
The Jets knew they couldn't get Trevor Lawrence, so they identified BYU QB Zach Wilson as their future early on with the second overall pick. Wilson certainly has some question marks coming in to the NFL, but so far in preseason we saw the young man ball out, looking accurate and crisp in his appearances. The Jets have admitted they want to take the long approach with Wilson, and they intend to die by the run if necessary rather than feed their valuable prospect to the wolves in blowout matchups. That doesn't bode well for fantasy, as garbage points can make or break a season. But also...it's the Jets. With another rookie quarterback, on the road, against a hungry Carolina team who just got their star RB back. Let's just see how this goes before we get too wild; even in superflex leagues if you are starting Wilson as your QB2, hopefully you have a really strong QB1 going.
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
New England Patriots
vs. Miami Dolphins, 4:25pm EST
Stevenson darted up the Patriots depth chart in preseason, leading to the trade of Sony Michel to the Rams. Stevenson looks to back up Damien Harris in the Mac Jones offense, which could mean a lot of usage in a multi-back system, or merely spelling the starter. Until we see how many touches an RB2 gets in this new scheme, it's tough to predict if Stevenson will have any value at all, and the Miami defense week one isn't the time to find out.
Chuba Hubbard, RB
Carolina Panthers
vs. New York Jets, 1pm EST
You drafted Hubbard late to handcuff Christian McCaffrey most likely, and until something happens to McCaffrey, the bench is where Hubbard should stay. The young back is crazy talented and instantly will be the most-sought pickup should the number one overall fantasy pick go down, but will see limited touches in the meantime.
Mac Jones, QB
New England Patriots
vs. Miami Dolphins, 4:25 EST
After being drafted 15th overall by New England, Mac Jones got the starting job by the end of camp. The Pats went so far as releasing Cam Newton, meaning the job is Jones' for the long haul this year. If college and preseason are any indicators, Jones is a severely underrated pocket passer, overlooked in a league of mobile QBs who, despite winning a national championship, even lost the Heisman Trophy to a wide receiver. Mac Jones basically has been undervalued his whole football career, but not by Bill Belichiek. The Alabama star went to perhaps the best situation for any of the starting rookie QBs, and will not be asked to do unrealistic things week in/week out that we may see required from the Justin Fields/Trey Lance types in order for them to have success. Being a rookie pocket passer limits the fantasy ceiling of Jones, and a week one matchup against the swift Miami pass rush could mean pedestrian numbers for Jones out of the gate. Riding the bench week one doesn't mean he will stay there forever though: keep your eye on this guy, if he is on your bench, you may be starting him sooner than you think (just like the Patriots).
Larry Rountree, RB
Los Angeles Chargers
@Washington FT, 1pm EST
6th round rookie Larry Rountree surprised many by edging out Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley as the Chargers assumed RB2 behind Austin Ekeler. There is still a bit of talk about sharing the load, but as Ekeler doesn't profile as a power back, someone is going to get the goal line rushing work and it appears to be Rountree. The Chargers have lofty aspirations in 2021 and Herbert is elite at getting his team into scoring position. Rountree might not be a weekly fantasy starter, but between red zone work and Ekeler's injury history, he is worth keeping your eye on Sunday at Washington.
Kenneth Gainwell, RB
Philadelphia Eagles
@Atlanta Falcons, 1pm EST
I'm pretty high on Gainwell, and I think the Eagles are too, although I'm willing to admit I need to see it in action first. Miles Sanders is the lead back of the committee in Philly(though you could argue, QB Hurts is the lead back), but Gainwell thoroughly impressed his coaches with solid rushing and receiving outings throughout camp and preseason. Basically, he commands some field time, and they are going to give it to him. Much like the situation for fellow rookie Devonta Smith, the Falcons defense has some holes in it, and if the Eagles can establish a lead, we may see Gainwell on the field more. Definitely a player to keep an eye on Sunday.
Elijiah Moore, WR
New York Jets
@Carolina Panthers, 1pm EST
I don't really know what to think of Elijiah Moore, other than I'm still not sure what kind of fantasy value we can expect from anyone Jets receiver until we see how run-heavy the Jets really are. All teams say they will be run heavy, until they are losing and have to throw the ball a lot. The Jets, however, want to preserve Wilson and not shell-shock him, which could mean limited opportunities for the young Moore. Electric in college and one of my favorite young talents, he fills an interesting gadget role for the Jets but...there is still Jamison Crowder and Corey Davis competing for targets, from a rookie QB on a team that doesn't want to throw the ball. Definitely a bench for week one on the road against the Panthers.
Terrace Marshall Jr, WR
Carolina Panthers
vs. New York Jets, 1pm EST
I really wanted to put Marshall in the start list, but I have to reign back my enthusiasm on this guy sometimes. Taken out of LSU in the second round, Marshall provides the Panthers with a larger-body receiver to compliment the speedy duo of DJ Moore and Robby Anderson. Carolina's new QB Sam Darnold is finally in a decent offensive situation after struggling in New York for years, so if he has anything in the tank this is the time to show it. I like Marshall to be a red-zone magnet and could even see a touchdown in his NFL debut against the Jets Sunday, but with the return of a healthy Christian McCaffrey it's hard to predict how productive any Carolina players will reliably be.
Rondale Moore, WR
Arizona Cardinals
@Tennessee Titans, 1pm EST
Moore was drafted in the second round out of Purdue, and may well be the fast gadget player that offense needs. For week one, however, the Cards travel to Tennessee to take on a playoff-projected Titans team that made some serious moves in the offseason by adding game-wrecker Bud Dupree, and containing Kyler Murray-types is what Dupree does. Moore also is competing with fellow receivers AJ Green, Christian Kirk, Andy Isabella, and RB Chase Edmonds for targets behind elite wideout De'Andre Hopkins. Definitely a "wait and see" situation, especially on the road week one.
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