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Writer's pictureCodyJOliver

2021 Fantasy Draft Strategy: Running Back

Updated: Aug 3, 2021

From Zero-RB to RB Stax, let’s take a look at the pros and cons of each strategy and which is more likely to win you a championship.


Christian McCaffery, Carolina Panthers

RB Stax

The most common RB strategy is to go RB heavy in the first two rounds and try to secure yourself a bona fide RB1 and hopefully a close to RB1 as the guy in your 2 slot. After that, running back depth falls off quickly (often called the “running back doldrums”) and you may find yourself overspending on a lower tier guy just to have some production in the slot. Meanwhile, wide receivers tend to have a lot of depth in that region and you can gamble on getting a productive player in those mid rounds. In this strategy, which works best when you have a top 6 pick, you generally will be getting one of the tier one RBs. My 2021 RB rankings will be released soon and be updated weekly, but until then I can say that available for your first pick would be McCaffery, Henry, Cook, Barkley, Kamara, or Elliot. Your RB 1 is going to a beast, barring injury and things we just control. Your second pick is in the 19-24 range, and there we have guys like Anthony Gibson, Clyde Edwards-Hilaire, and Joe Mixon available. A backfield with Barkley and Mixon or CMac and Gibson isn’t bad. After that you have the flexibility to begin to fill out your WR squad, which is important in PPR formats, with guys like McLaurin, Lamb, Cooper, and Evans on the board…but you also have RBs still hanging out in the third like Chris Carson, Myles Gaskin, and Kareem Hunt, so you can fill a flex/backup RB role there and still get DJ Moore, Jamar Chase, Aiyuk, or Golladay in the fourth and build your WR corp around high ceiling guys. Generally in this strategy you take a mid eound TE and a late round higher upside QB, for instance people employing this strategy and drafting Josh Allen last year probably made the playoffs across the board.

Zero-RB

After that there is the “Zero-RB” strategy, which is most often employed in full PPR formats especially with extra flex positions but it can be applied to anything. Basically, the name explains itself, you go extremely WR heavy in the first four to six rounds, get a TE or a QB even, then snag your RB room all in a row after about round 7 and target high volume, high upside players that generally have fallen because of factors such as load sharing, bad offenses, injury history, or a myriad of other reasons. This strategy can also be called the RoJo or Mike Davis strategy, as guys like himself in particular end up being the later round guys that will be your RB1. The objective is to have 4 high end WRs where at least 3 of them hit or exceed their expected draft value, giving you an advantage in the WR and flex departments, and also have a high end TE and QB option as well. While everyone is drafting RBs early and overspending on mid round second tier guys, you swoop up later round players and know they will produce less but have potential to hit big. Basically you are looking for the RBs to not sink the team while you lean on the higher volume receivers and TEs, perhaps a Lamar Jackson to compensate for the lack of RB production. You also fill your roster late with more WR prospects, giving yourself trade options and freeing up your waiver targets for breakout or handcuff RBs after the season starts to unfold.


Best Player Available

The third and perhaps most employed stategy also tends to be the least effective, and that’s the “best available player” strategy, which generally I equate to not having a strategy at all. That’s where you take the best available player in the first, which is a RB for most of the round and then generally WRs later, and then in the second round you grab the best available player at the position you didn’t take in round one. The biggest problem with this strategy is that you set yourself up for needing bench help immediately, as you probably don’t have any single position that is set for a majority of the season. traditionally in this strategy you draft a QB and a TE fairly early as well, and that can have repercussions based on draft cost that resonate throughout the team. Not to say this strategy can’t work: based on the numbers, you just need a lot to hit for this roster building strategy to pay off. For instance last year if you used this strategy but ended up getting a James Robinson or Cam Akers on waivers later and dropped half your draft picks and won that way, well that’s basically luck because of your waiver priority. Pretty much every championship team had some luck on the waiver wore throughout the season, but generally drafting smart eliminates the need to rely so heavily on the waiver wire.

All we can do as fantasy managers is reduce the randomness of outcomes, and I have compiled data on specific players to target and to avoid in the 2021 draft. As what pick in the draft you end up with has a lot of influence on which strategy you should employ, in the following articles we will go over strategy deeper by position, and what your best options are based on high picks, low picks, and mid round pick placement.


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