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The mid rounds (generally considered rounds 6-10) are critical in filling out the rest of your starters and adding depth to positions you may have sidelined in the first 5 rounds. If you didn’t take one of the top 4 QBs, or one of the big 3 TEs, this is typically where you fill in those roster needs as well. Once you reach the mid rounds you basically either have a turn position (two picks fairly close together and then a large gap) or a mid position, where your picks are fairly evenly spaced.
If you are a turn position team, you may have to overdraft certain targets because you have to fill team needs. With such large gaps between picks, you may watch all the remaining quality QBs for example fly off the board while you wait helplessly, wishing you hadn’t tried to let your target fall a full two rounds before you have another pick. Taking a QB, or a target WR/RB a round too high is not such a big deal at this point, especially in the case of QBs where their importance to your roster overweighs letting them slip in favor of positional bench depth.
Regardless of your draft position, mid round players are up for grabs if you identify your value targets before the draft even starts. If you know you are taking your QB, your WR2, your TE, or your guaranteed flex in these rounds, it frees you up to strengthen other positions in the first five rounds. For instance, if you know you are comfortable drafting Matt Stafford as your QB, and taking say Burrow or Lawrence as your flier QB, you can focus on other needs while the top QBs from Mahomes to Tannehill are all being jockeyed for.
Here are some of my favorite mid-round targets that have the potential to compete as high end WR2/RB2 options even if you have already filled those spots. If you already drafted a QB and/or TE, or if you are waiting on QB and/or TE, here are some positional targets I am trying to get on my roster.
Antonio Brown, Tampa Bay WR: I have Brown ranked as my WR23 and his current ADP of 98 makes him one of the highest values above investment on my board. Drafting Brown as my WR2 in the mid-rounds give me the ability to stack early RB/WR/QB talent knowing I have a reliable starter I can snag in the 7th/8th round.
Tee Higgins, Cincinnati WR: Higgins had WR1 upside with Joe Burrow last year and despite adding Jamar Chase, Higgins is poised to have a stellar year regardless of the LSU rookie's presence. Even if Chase has a great year, there is room for multiple stars in this young offense. Higgins currently is going in the 6th round, but he is my WR16 so I will take him a bit earlier if I feel like he might not fall to his ADP.
Trey Sermon, San Francisco 49ers RB: I have been really high on the Ohio State RB since San Francisco moved up in the draft to get him. The 49ers can take a guy off the street and make him a viable fantasy flex, imagine what they will do with a versatile young workhorse who looks to take the starting role sooner than later. Sermon is an 8th/9th round pick that will won't be on your bench for long.
Mike Williams, Las Angeles Chargers WR: Williams has had a a few disappointing seasons despite yearly hype, and last year he took a backseat to Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler in the target department. While I expect his target share to increase a little this year, I also expect his touchdowns to go up in a top passing offense. Williams is a 10th round pick that averages 16.7 YPC on his career.
Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins WR: The young WR is is going to become a feature of the offense. It may not happen week 1, but if Tua is the prospect they think he is, Waddle will see a ton of usage. He has a 10th round ADP, so you aren't risking a lot if he takes awhile to adjust to the NFL (or if the Dolphins aren't very good), but I think he has WR2 potential in PPR formats.
Jamal Williams, Detroit Lions RB: I talked about Williams in my Flex targets article, but to summarize...he is a really good running back, no one knows if Swift is the guy or can stay healthy, and Williams is a great receiver. ADP is 10th round which is a pretty good value for a guy who put up nearly a 10 point PPR average weekly last year behind Aaron Jones in Green Bay. Between the Lions needing to rush the ball and utilize the short pass game, Williams is primed to see a lot of that load/target share.
Levishka Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars WR: James Robinson got an immediate boost when rookie RB Travis Ettienne went down with the foot earlier in the week. However, I think Ettienne was going to be used a lot in the slot/gadget role, and Shenault profiles to absorb that usage a lot more than Robinson will. The Colorado Buffalo has some health concerns, but that's reflected in his ADP of 110. Shenault is a steal.
If you are in the market to draft your QB and TE in the mid rounds, you will find yourself with some company there. That really isn’t a bad thing, as the QBs ranked 5-12 offer fairly similar floors with varying degrees of upside and stability. The most sure fire targets here are Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson, because they have the rushing ability and proven history to back up competing as a top 5 QB each week.
Ryan Tannehill is a sneaky mid-round QB, as he has shown extreme efficiency through the air and is no stranger to the goal line despite having Derrick Henry back there with him. Stafford and Tom Brady offer stability in pass-heavy offenses that you can target near the end of the mid-rounds, but their lack of rushing usage limits their ceiling. When taking a Stafford or Brady I like to back it up with Burrow, Lawrence, or Fields later, someone who has the ground potential to overtake Stafford or Brady as your starter.
Second year Chargers QB Justin Herbert had an amazing rookie campaign and with a healthy defense and new coaching staff, he figures to be in the top-5 conversation depending on matchups each week. Aaron Rodgers is a prime regression candidate as far as touchdowns are concerned, but that doesn’t mean he won’t still be a reliable fantasy starter. Sometimes big names like Rodgers are going a few rounds ahead of where their point projections say they should, so I’m wary of taking pocket QBs like him too early.
The most interesting prospect here is Jalen Hurts, as he is falling in drafts to around the Brady/Stafford range. Hurts offers high upside with his rushing ability, even if his passing stats are near the bottom of the league. If you are taking the flier on Hurts, it might be wise to back him up with a Kirk Cousins/Baker Mayfield pick in case the second year QB doesn’t keep the starting job in Philly for the whole season.
With TEs, we are in a dangerous region where you still have high upside position players within reach yet you are staring at that empty TE slot on your roster. Hockenson, Pitts, and Andrews are all being drafted in round 5 but often they fall to round 6. If you look at the last few years, even though Andrews and Hockenson are clearly above the next tier of tight ends in reliable scoring, the gap between them and the ones behind them isn’t as significant as the drop off from the Big 3 to them. Basically I’m saying you don’t need one of these guys this high in the draft because you can get similar weekly production from Logan Thomas or Mike Gesicki later.
However, Hockenson, Pitts, and Andrews have much higher upside than the rest of the tight ends based on their current offenses and situations so taking a shot on one of them in a mid round isn’t a bad idea as long as you aren’t relying on them to hit their ceiling every week. I like to take these guys if I am really happy with my first five/six picks and might as well lock in a high upside tight end at a position where you generally have low expectations.
If you are going to wait on tight end til the end of the mid rounds (9-10), most of these tight ends you can generally get someone similar in the late rounds (#11-#15) but you are also at a point where taking a TE over a fifth RB isn’t risking that much draft capital. The TEs I think have the highest touchdown upside in this range are Tyler Higbee and the afore-mentioned Gesicki. Again, you can probably wait and get comparable weekly averages from Jonnu Smith with your last pick (which I think is crazy no one is drafting Jonnu), but sometimes just locking in the rest of your starters is a smart idea if you like the depth you have already built at the other positions.
Stay tuned for the Late Round Sleeper Targets! Happy drafting!
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