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We can talk all day about league-winners and sleepers, but if you don't draft successful players in the first five rounds, hitting on a late-round sleeper doesn't mean much. The early rounds are also extremely dependent on what pick you have in your draft: the strategy changes if you have the 3rd pick, versus the 10th or 12th pick. This effect generally lasts until about round five, where you can truly start to draft based on best available player rather than filling roster needs. If you haven't checked out the SportsLeaf 2021 Draft Rankings, click here and bring them up.
The most important and obvious strategy for the early rounds is basically just not to miss on players. It's awesome if they massively exceed expectations, but since their projections are so high, just meeting them is quite alright. When you draft a player in the first two rounds who underperforms or gets injured, it will effectively tank your fantasy season unless you get lucky on the waivers with a replacement. A lot of things suddenly have to go right to salvage your year. While we can't necessarily predict injuries or exact regression, there are indicators that can be evaluated and it's important to know the risks associated with players before blindly drafting them with a top pick. Let's pick apart my rankings and find some early round examples.
If you have a top 4 pick it's pretty unanimous you are taking one the four big RBs: McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, or Henry. McCaffrey, Cook, and Kamara have all missed significant time at some point in their careers due to injury, but I don't know if we can call them "injury-prone". Henry has not suffered from the injury bug (yet), but he also is not involved in the passing game, and that limits his ceiling. From a pure availability standpoint however, Henry is probably the safest pick, and also the least exciting.
After these four, the elite RBs are drying up fast and flying off the board in a reasonably predictable order: Zeke, Chubb, Aaron Jones, and Barkley all have the volume upside and/or receiving targets to warrant a high pick. I personally have Joe Mixon ranked at 6 yet his ceiling may be a riskier prospect than others. Mixon's current ADP is around 20, so if I have the 6th pick, I could get insane value by getting Mixon with my second round pick (18 in a 12-team), but if I think Mixon won't be there I would have to take him at 6. It seems there is a lot of value in WRs in the middle rounds, so taking high-volume RBs early is essential (if you want strength at the position), and you may have to reach for a guy like Mixon if you want him.
I use the "+/-" in my rankings to see how I value a player compared to their ADP, rather than a strict draft guide. Looking back through decades of data, we can estimate the range of points we expect from any given draft pick. Using the Mixon example above, despite having him charted as the 6th best scoring RB, if you take him at the 6th overall pick he suddenly loses all of his "value" because now, he HAS to hit my projections or he didn't reach the expected points from the 6th overall position. Rather, my rankings tell me that every spot after pick 6, Mixon's return on investment increases. Ultimately, you always want to draft players as late as possible. If you can get CMC in the fifth round, you do that. You want to take Mixon closer to 20 where his ADP is, because getting Zeke or Barkley at 6 and then getting your projected RB6 at 18 is quite the steal. Then, if Mixon has a solid...but not league-shattering year, you didn't draft him based on his ceiling. Managing risk is the name of the game.
Now on to draft position and how that effects your strategy. The part above, about CMC/Mixon etc, that won't apply to you if you draw pick 12. Since many leagues do not assign draft order until the room opens 30 minutes prior to the draft starting, you need to have a basic idea of what you want to do (especially in the first few rounds where available players are fairly predictable).
In 2021, if you have an early pick (#1-#4), you are probably taking a running back. You won't have another pick until #21-#24, but you are locking down one of the most solid producers in fantasy by taking one of the top players at a position that gets thin quickly.
The highest value targets in the early 20s are wide receivers like Justin Jefferson and AJ Brown, but you can also get solid RB2s like CEH here that I have valued higher than their current ADP if you want to solidify the RB position early. I'm also starting to like the look of taking George Kittle here and getting one of the top 3 tight ends to compliment two other elite players. After the 2nd/3rd, early pick and late pick (10th-12th) strategies kind of merge into one general "turn position" and you can see my thought process on that below.
Once we get to picks #5-#9, you have to decide between taking a high upside RB, or an elite WR. Either can be a good strategy but since the RB pool dries up quickly, I tend to like Jones/Zeke/Chubb/Barkley in this range (whoever falls after the top 6 get their choice).
Picks #10-#12 are the "turn" positions, where you know you have another selection coming either immediately or very quickly. This a great place to employ a back-to-back WR strategy, as you can get two truly elite WRs at considerable value because of the run on RBs. Starting off your draft with Tyreek Hill and Devante Adams isn't a bad pair to have, especially if the drop-off from elite RBs to really good RBs already happened. I really like taking Travis Kelce with a turn position pick, immediately locking in a tight end who is basically a WR1, and then also taking a star WR1 like Hill or Stefon Diggs with the second selection. In my rankings, I paired the Kelce at 12 selection with rookie RB Najee Harris at 13, which gives you a star tight end and one of the last high-volume upside RBs on the board. If someone like me hasn't taken Mixon off the board yet, I like Mixon here too.
You also have to know that with the late turn positions, you won't have your third pick til #34-#36. If you scroll down the predicted ADP list, you are pretty solidly looking at RB2 and WR2 options. If you go WR/WR, you have to be comfortable with Chris Carson/Miles Sanders as your RB1. Top QBs like Allen, Mahomes, and Murray are also going off the board in this range, so from a turn position if you want an elite QB you will probably have to spend your third/fourth pick on them. That can look a little ugly when you only have wide receivers rostered so far.
If you have one of the #5-#9 picks, you are picking pretty solidly in the middle of each round with fairly even gaps between selections. You can kind of watch the draft happen around you and see the trends as they start; you will have indicators that the run on QBs is about to happen, and the ability to move on your player rather than the turn positions watching 7 QBs go in the 20+ selections between their picks.
Position #5-#9 also means you probably started the draft with a strong RB, and your second selection is in the #16-#20 OVR range. You have options here that other draft positions don't: you can go RB/RB and actually have 2 really good running backs. Antonio Gibson and Najee Harris are targets here, but I have Joe Mixon and Clyde Edwards-Hilaire ranked very high well and they are both more likely to be available in this range (based on current Half-PPR ADP). Especially if you went Saquan Barkley in the first, it's not a bad idea to back him up with another volume guy. There are also elite WRs tending to fall here like Stefon Diggs, AJ Brown, and De'Andre Hopkins; plus if someone like Kelce were to fall four or five spots in your draft, getting him with a mid second-round pick is the type of value that we are looking for.
Your third pick is in the #29-#33 range, where much like the #10-#12 turn position managers, you are starting to realize the very top QBs are poised to go any moment. It's generally a turn team that takes someone like Mahomes first, as they don't have a pick for 23 picks and they know there is a good possibility each of the elite 4 QBs is gone by the time the 60th pick rolls around. For a mid-pick team selecting right before them however, I still see a ton of value in other positions over QB. I'm super high on CeeDee Lamb this year, and if you went with the 2 RB strategy with your first two mid-picks picks (say you have Barkley/Gibson), getting Lamb as your WR1 gives you someone who has overall WR1 upside weekly in a region where he may not be available at your next pick. I'm high on Lamb, but the bigger point is, there are lots of WRs (Robert Woods, Chris Godwin, Allen Robinson II, Keenan Allen) available in this range that can serve that same purpose.
For your fourth/fifth selections (#40-#44 and #53-#57 from a mid-round position), you are generally out of the market for Mahomes or Allen, but since I have Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray rated just as highly I'm quite comfortable taking either of them here. This is the Amari Cooper/Julio Jones range of ADP where, if you built a solid roster with your first three picks, taking a top-tier QB over Myles Gaskin makes a lot of sense. Conversely if you don't go QB or TE in the first five rounds, you have the option to fill all starting RB, WR, and flex slots with top-60 ranked players. Picking from the mid positions tends to give you the most options to build a rounded team with strong players, without having to reach.
In summary, the most important thing in the early rounds is to draft reliable players regardless of your strategy. It's also important to identify your mid-round targets, as there are valuable players there you may like for a WR2 , freeing you up to take a QB or flex RB in an early round knowing you have plan for WR2 later.
Don't stack your risks. If you are taking Barkley in the first round with his obvious question marks, don't compile that risk by immediately drafting someone else with question marks like Austin Ekeler in the next round. You already took one risk, maybe back it up with someone who will reliably play a full season, over a player who historically misses time and doesn't get red zone opportunities. I like Ekeler, just not paired with Barkley in this instance. There could be weeks where you don't have either RB available.
Manage risk in the early rounds.
Stay tuned for Mid-Round Targets coming soon.
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